Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa SenatorsNov 16, 2022

FinalWednesday, Nov 16, 2022· Canadian Tire Centre

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	1	0	1		BUF	11	10	9	30
OTT	1	1	2	4		OTT	14	14	12	40

: BUF 58OTT 60
: BUF 3.14OTT 5.71
PP goals: BUF 1OTT 1
Hits: BUF 10OTT 27
Blocks: BUF 9OTT 19
PIM: BUF 14OTT 18
: BUF 43%OTT 57%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Ottawa Senators beat Buffalo Sabres 4–1

Ottawa Senators beat Buffalo Sabres 4–1 at home. Tim Stützle (OTT) led the scoring with 1G 1A. BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Olofsson, Thompson and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 5 attempts in 6:57 together.

Points
Tim Stützle had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 18:20.Stützle
Points
Jake Sanderson had 2 assists (2 points) on 4 shots in 24:55.Sanderson
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Olofsson, Thompson and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 5 attempts in 6:57 together.Skinner Tuch Olofsson Thompson Dahlin
New line
New look for OTT: Motte–Batherson–Pinto skated 7:51 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (40% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Motte Batherson Pinto
Luck
BUF scored 1 goal on 3.14 expected goals (58 attempts), well short of its chances.
New line
New look for OTT: Brassard–Joseph–DeBrincat skated 4:51 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (54.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Brassard Joseph DeBrincat
New line
New look for OTT: Watson–Gambrell–Kelly skated 6:14 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (56.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Watson Gambrell Kelly
Luck
OTT scored 4 goals on 5.71 expected goals (60 attempts), well short of its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← BUF attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
BUF
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 118 of 118 attempts · OTT 60 · BUF 58

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
BUF
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
BUF pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: BUF 41% of the game, OTT 34%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

BUF

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	BUF	OTT
	50	41
	2.30	2.98
	2.24	2.50
	11	11
	2	7
	19	13
	−0.101	+0.101
	41%	34%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
8:2459% CF
L2Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka
6:1846% CF
L3Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs
3:4460% CF
L4Girgensons – Bjork – Asplund
2:3740% CF
D1Dahlin – Power
9:3550% CF
D2Jokiharju – Bryson
8:2737% CF
D3Pilut – Lyubushkin
5:5275% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Olofsson – Thompson – Dahlin
6:5763% CF
PP2Mittelstadt – Krebs – Cozens – Peterka – Power
2:49
PK1FAsplund – Cozens
2:33
PK2FHinostroza – Mittelstadt
1:20
PK1DJokiharju – Dahlin
2:56
PK2DLyubushkin – Power
2:23

Current BUF line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Motte – Batherson – Pinto
7:5140% CF
L2Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle
7:4254% CF
L3Watson – Gambrell – Kelly
6:1456% CF
L4Brassard – Joseph – DeBrincat
4:5155% CF
D1Holden – Larsson
11:2450% CF
D2Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker
9:5648% CF
D3Hamonic – Sanderson
9:1838% CF

PP1DeBrincat – Batherson – Tkachuk – Sanderson – Stützle
4:5950% CF
PP2Giroux – DeBrincat – Brannstrom – Tkachuk – Pinto
2:19100% CF
PK1FWatson – Motte
2:05
PK2FJoseph – Gambrell
1:05
PK1DHamonic – Sanderson
5:45
PK2DHolden – Brannstrom
3:06

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	1	0	1	-2	6	0.47	1	0	0	22:25	—	—	64	54
Alex Tuch R	L1	0	1	1	-2	1	0.04	0	1	2	21:38	—	—	59	57
Jeff Skinner L	L1	0	0	0	-1	3	0.57	0	1	4	16:59	—	—	56	50
Dylan Cozens C	L2	0	0	0	0	4	0.63	0	0	0	16:12	—	—	56	35
JJ Peterka R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.31	1	0	2	15:41	—	—	61	38
Vinnie Hinostroza C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	0	2	12:20	—	—	46	32
Victor Olofsson L	L3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.20	0	0	2	18:21	—	—	62	49
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.36	0	0	0	16:55	—	—	58	65
Peyton Krebs C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	12:11	—	—	52	46
Rasmus Asplund C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:22	—	—	39	25
Anders Bjork L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	0	0	0	9:38	—	—	57	47
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	2	6:08	—	—	33	50
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	1	1	-2	2	0.07	2	2	0	28:22	—	—	50	25
Owen Power D	D1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.06	0	1	0	25:03	—	—	61	44
Henri Jokiharju D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	1	0	19:55	—	—	44	37
Jacob Bryson D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	14:43	—	—	39	47
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	1	1	0	13:25	—	—	76	55
Lawrence Pilut D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	1	0	0	9:03	—	—	67	70

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Eric Comrie(start)	L	24	22	2	.917	2.59	32:36
Craig Anderson	—	15	14	1	.933	1.36	25:33

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Drake Batherson R	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	14:56	—	—	43	32
Tyler Motte C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	2	14:11	—	—	36	17
Shane Pinto C	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	0	0	0	14:05	—	—	47	35
Tim Stützle C	L2	1	1	2	+1	1	0.96	0	1	2	18:20	—	—	37	65
Claude Giroux R	L2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.27	1	0	2	18:07	—	—	52	69
Brady Tkachuk L	L2	1	0	1	+1	6	1.26	2	0	0	15:56	—	—	60	82
Austin Watson L	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	3	2	0	13:33	—	—	38	44
Dylan Gambrell C	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	0	0	0	12:32	—	—	43	50
Parker Kelly C	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	3	0	0	12:01	—	—	50	77
Alex DeBrincat R	L4	1	0	1	+1	3	0.78	1	0	0	16:12	—	—	43	54
Mathieu Joseph R	L4	0	1	1	+1	2	0.95	3	0	2	13:53	—	—	46	58
Derick Brassard C	L4	0	0	0	+1	4	0.32	2	0	2	9:42	—	—	41	57
Nick Holden D	D1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.05	4	2	0	19:50	—	—	43	44
Jacob Larsson D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	4	12:33	—	—	50	48
Erik Brannstrom D	D2	0	0	0	+2	1	0.21	0	4	2	22:37	—	—	46	66
Jacob Bernard-Docker D	D2	0	0	0	0	3	0.22	2	1	0	12:57	—	—	54	69
Jake Sanderson D	D3	0	2	2	+1	4	0.17	2	5	0	24:55	—	—	37	45
Travis Hamonic D	D3	0	1	1	+2	1	0.03	1	3	2	18:26	—	—	42	50

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Anton Forsberg(start)	W	30	29	1	.967	3.14	60:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa SenatorsNov 16, 2022

Fantasy takeaways

Ottawa Senators beat Buffalo Sabres 4–1

Shot map

Shot map

Game flow

Cumulative shot attempts

Shift chart

Shifts

Sequence card

Lines used

Buffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators

Scoring summary

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Ottawa Senators