Buffalo Sabres vs. Ottawa SenatorsDec 31, 2023

FinalSunday, Dec 31, 2023· Canadian Tire Centre

away

home

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
BUF	1	0	0	1		BUF	12	18	16	46
OTT	2	2	1	5		OTT	18	5	8	31

: BUF 74OTT 53
: BUF 3.02OTT 4.12
PP goals: BUF 0OTT 1
Hits: BUF 33OTT 24
Blocks: BUF 13OTT 17
PIM: BUF 16OTT 20
: BUF 50%OTT 50%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Ottawa Senators rout Buffalo Sabres 5–1

Ottawa Senators beat Buffalo Sabres 5–1 at home. Thomas Chabot (OTT) led the scoring with 0G 2A. Anton Forsberg (OTT) faced 46 shots and stopped 45 (.978), +21 against a season average of 25.5; the win.

Points
Thomas Chabot had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 21:01.Chabot
Goalie
Anton Forsberg (OTT) faced 46 shots and stopped 45 (.978), +21 against a season average of 25.5; the win.Forsberg
Usage
Zack MacEwen (OTT) played 11:31, +5:18 up on his 6:13 season average over 29 games.MacEwen
Luck
BUF scored 1 goal on 3.01 expected goals (74 attempts), well short of its chances.
New line
New look for BUF: Okposo–Girgensons–Krebs skated 4:57 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (78.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Okposo Girgensons Krebs
Usage
Brady Tkachuk (OTT) played 12:11, −7:03 down on his 19:14 season average over 80 games.Tkachuk
Usage
Jake Sanderson (OTT) played 19:15, −4:01 down on his 23:16 season average over 78 games.Sanderson
Usage
Jeff Skinner (BUF) played 19:31, +3:34 up on his 15:57 season average over 73 games.Skinner

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← BUF attacks left (bottom on phones)OTT attacks right (top on phones) →

OTT
BUF
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 127 of 127 attempts · OTT 53 · BUF 74

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

OTT
BUF
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

OTT pressure
BUF pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: BUF 32% of the game, OTT 26%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

OTT

BUF

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	BUF	OTT
	67	54
	2.78	3.03
	2.70	2.72
	12	12
	7	8
	23	20
	−0.005	+0.005
	32%	26%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Buffalo Sabres

L1Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson
11:3650% CF
L2Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
11:1657% CF
L3Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
6:4335% CF
L4Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs
4:5779% CF
D1Samuelsson – Dahlin
16:3057% CF
D2Jokiharju – Power
12:4348% CF
D3Clifton – Johnson
12:2360% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt – Dahlin
3:5375% CF
PP2Cozens – Quinn – Peterka – Power – Benson
2:00100% CF
PK1FGreenway – Cozens
0:38
PK2FGirgensons – Krebs
0:20
PK1DClifton – Samuelsson
0:38
PK2DJokiharju – Dahlin
0:20

Current BUF line combinations →

Ottawa Senators

L1Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle
11:0235% CF
L2Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk
8:4435% CF
L3Kubalik – Kelly – Greig
7:2745% CF
D1Hamonic – Chychrun
15:2345% CF
D2Chabot – Bernard-Docker
14:3557% CF
D3Sanderson – Zub
12:4730% CF

PP1Chabot – Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle
0:380% CF
PP2Giroux – Tarasenko – Kubalik – Chychrun – Sanderson
0:20100% CF
PK1FGiroux – Kelly
3:44
PK2FNorris – Greig
1:41
PK1DSanderson – Zub
3:38
PK2DBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker
1:44

Current OTT line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

6:51
OTTJakob ChychrunPP (Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson)snap0.16 xG
BUF: Girgensons, Jokiharju, Dahlin, KrebsOTT: Giroux, Tarasenko, Kubalik, Chychrun, Sanderson
BUF 0 – 1 OTT
12:38
OTTZack MacEwen (Jacob Bernard-Docker, Thomas Chabot)slap0.07 xG
BUF: Clifton, Greenway, Cozens, Johnson, PeterkaOTT: Chabot, MacEwen, Brannstrom, Kastelic, Bernard-Docker
BUF 0 – 2 OTT
19:46
BUFTage Thompson (Jeff Skinner)wrist0.14 xG
BUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, PowerOTT: Kubalik, Chabot, Kelly, Bernard-Docker, Stützle
BUF 1 – 2 OTT

2nd period

7:18
OTTDominik Kubalik (Ridly Greig, Thomas Chabot)backhand0.12 xG
BUF: Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens, Quinn, PeterkaOTT: Kubalik, Chabot, Kelly, Bernard-Docker, Greig
BUF 1 – 3 OTT
19:44
OTTMark Kastelic (Erik Brannstrom)tip-in0.09 xG
BUF: Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens, Quinn, PeterkaOTT: Chabot, Chychrun, MacEwen, Brannstrom, Kastelic
BUF 1 – 4 OTT

3rd period

15:16
OTTArtem ZubENbackhand0.44 xG
BUF: Mittelstadt, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka, PowerOTT: Giroux, Kelly, Sanderson, Zub
BUF 1 – 5 OTT

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Casey Mittelstadt C	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	1	0	0	20:20	—	—	52	50
Jordan Greenway L	L1	0	0	0	-1	3	0.33	6	1	0	15:58	—	—	44	37
Zach Benson L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	1	0	0	15:55	—	—	60	57
Jeff Skinner L	L2	0	1	1	+1	3	0.39	0	0	0	19:31	—	—	62	63
Alex Tuch R	L2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.11	4	2	0	19:23	—	—	61	55
Tage Thompson C	L2	1	0	1	+1	2	0.17	0	0	0	19:22	—	—	62	61
Jack Quinn R	L3	0	0	0	-3	1	0.01	2	1	0	15:22	—	—	45	28
JJ Peterka R	L3	0	0	0	-4	4	0.33	0	0	0	14:50	—	—	39	33
Dylan Cozens C	L3	0	0	0	-4	6	0.27	2	1	0	13:57	—	—	40	29
Kyle Okposo R	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	0	4	10:56	—	—	71	42
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.23	0	1	10	10:14	—	—	65	64
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	3	2	0	9:26	—	—	64	38
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	-2	6	0.26	4	2	2	25:44	—	—	56	51
Mattias Samuelsson D	D1	0	0	0	-2	2	0.07	1	1	0	19:27	—	—	53	42
Owen Power D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	18:03	—	—	52	49
Henri Jokiharju D	D2	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	4	1	0	16:51	—	—	54	40
Ryan Johnson D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	0	17:25	—	—	62	52
Connor Clifton D	D3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.23	2	1	0	14:14	—	—	58	62

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Devon Levi(start)	L	30	26	4	.867	3.15	58:04

Ottawa Senators

OTT skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tim Stützle C	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.27	0	1	0	19:15	—	—	35	32
Drake Batherson R	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	3	1	2	16:52	—	—	41	48
Vladimir Tarasenko R	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	0	0	0	14:14	—	—	39	38
Claude Giroux R	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.71	0	0	0	18:58	—	—	50	45
Josh Norris C	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	2	0	14:24	—	—	36	22
Brady Tkachuk L	L2	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	2	1	14	12:11	—	—	39	23
Parker Kelly C	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.30	3	2	0	15:27	—	—	47	68
Ridly Greig C	L3	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	13:07	—	—	47	76
Dominik Kubalik L	L3	1	0	1	0	1	0.12	0	0	0	10:42	—	—	50	52
Jakob Chychrun D	D1	1	0	1	+1	3	0.19	1	2	0	21:18	—	—	48	63
Travis Hamonic D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	16:56	—	—	43	55
Thomas Chabot D	D2	0	2	2	+2	2	0.23	0	0	2	21:01	—	—	53	57
Jacob Bernard-Docker D	D2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	1	0	0	17:01	—	—	57	57
Artem Zub D	D3	1	0	1	+1	3	0.56	2	2	0	21:50	—	—	30	23
Jake Sanderson D	D3	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	4	3	0	19:15	—	—	28	24
Erik Brannstrom D	—	0	1	1	+2	3	0.84	0	0	0	15:13	—	—	52	76
Zack MacEwen R	—	1	0	1	+2	1	0.15	3	0	0	11:31	—	—	48	68
Mark Kastelic C	—	1	0	1	+2	5	0.32	3	1	2	10:45	—	—	59	72

OTT goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Anton Forsberg(start)	W	46	45	1	.978	3.02	60:00

Goal anatomy

Animated replays from NHL EDGE tracking, with the entry, passes and shot speed for each goal.

Jakob Chychrun (OTT PP) 1st 6:51 · assists Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Cycle · 55.8 mph shot.

Jakob Chychrun · 1st 6:51 · OTT PP

Play: cycle
Passes: 4 (royal road)
Shot: 55.8 mph
Distance: 22 ft
Type: one-timer

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Zack MacEwen · 1st 12:38 · OTT

Play: rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: No
Passes: 2
Shot: 85.7 mph
Distance: 38 ft
Entry to goal: 1.9 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Tage Thompson · 1st 19:46 · BUF

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 0
Shot: 31.1 mph
Distance: 25 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Artem Zub · 3rd 15:16 · OTT EN

Play: point-shot
Passes: 1
Shot: 38.5 mph
Distance: 82 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Dominik Kubalik · 2nd 7:18 · OTT

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 3-on-2
Passes: 0
Shot: 17.8 mph
Distance: 10 ft
Entry to goal: 2.5 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Mark Kastelic · 2nd 19:44 · OTT

Play: deflection
Passes: 1
Shot: 17.4 mph
Distance: 14 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.