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NHL Stack Finder: Tuesday, Sep 29

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Tuesday, Sep 29 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: CAR L1 (Hall–Stankoven–Blake) vs FLA.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1CARL1vs FLA0.65 xG

    Taylor Hall28%, Logan Stankoven67%, Jackson Blake69%

    10.4 min/game · 3.77 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (100% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  2. #2MTLPP1vs TOR0.61 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Lane Hutson99%, Juraj Slafkovský100%, Ivan Demidov91%

    3.4 min/game · 8.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR shorthanded time +2%
    • TOR PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  3. #3MTLL1vs TOR0.54 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Juraj Slafkovský100%

    8.5 min/game · 3.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  4. #4EDML1vs VAN0.53 xG

    Leon Draisaitl100%, Kasperi Kapanen9.2%, Connor McDavid100%

    9.9 min/game · 2.85 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +14%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (100% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  5. #5VGKPP1vs CHI0.51 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl84%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    3.0 min/game · 11.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI shorthanded time −1%
    • CHI PK xGA/60 −3%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  6. #6BOSL1vs NYR0.48 xG

    David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha78%, Marat Khusnutdinov11%

    12.7 min/game · 3.25 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  7. #7CARL2vs FLA0.38 xG

    Jordan Staal20%, Nikolaj Ehlers93%, Seth Jarvis95%

    9.0 min/game · 2.52 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (100% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  8. #8CARL3vs FLA0.35 xG

    Jordan Martinook4.3%, Sebastian Aho99%, Andrei Svechnikov97%

    8.3 min/game · 2.57 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (100% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  9. #9BOSL3vs NYR0.32 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%

    8.9 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  10. #10EDML2vs VAN0.31 xG

    Zach Hyman98%, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins77%, Vasily Podkolzin70%

    6.7 min/game · 2.51 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +14%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (100% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

By game

FLA @ CAR

MTL @ TOR

  • MTLPP1vs TOR0.61 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Lane Hutson99%, Juraj Slafkovský100%, Ivan Demidov91%

    3.4 min/game · 8.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR shorthanded time +2%
    • TOR PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • MTLL1vs TOR0.54 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Juraj Slafkovský100%

    8.5 min/game · 3.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • MTLL2vs TOR0.22 xG

    Jake Evans5.7%, Alex Newhook26%, Ivan Demidov91%

    7.1 min/game · 1.56 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • MTLL3vs TOR0.22 xG

    Phillip Danault4.9%, Josh Anderson10%, Alexandre Texier4.9%

    6.1 min/game · 1.78 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • MTLL4vs TOR0.20 xG

    Joseph Veleno4.1%, Kirby Dach12%, Zachary Bolduc21%

    3.8 min/game · 2.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TOR 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Sergei Bobrovsky .877 (100% to start)
    • Bobrovsky .744 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3

NYR @ BOS

  • BOSL1vs NYR0.48 xG

    David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha78%, Marat Khusnutdinov11%

    12.7 min/game · 3.25 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSL3vs NYR0.32 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%

    8.9 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSL2vs NYR0.20 xG

    Sean Kuraly0.2%, Tanner Jeannot6.5%, Mark Kastelic13%

    7.3 min/game · 1.99 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • BOSL4vs NYR0.18 xG

    Michael Eyssimont0.1%, Alex Steeves5.6%, Fraser Minten47%

    7.1 min/game · 2.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSPP1vs NYR0.09 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha78%, Charlie McAvoy97%, Morgan Geekie96%

    2.6 min/game · 8.88 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • NYR shorthanded time +0%
    • NYR PK xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .846 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

VAN @ EDM

CHI @ VGK

  • VGKPP1vs CHI0.51 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl84%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    3.0 min/game · 11.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI shorthanded time −1%
    • CHI PK xGA/60 −3%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • VGKL1vs CHI0.26 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%

    4.7 min/game · 3.22 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • VGKL2vs CHI0.05 xG

    Nic Dowd3.2%, Keegan Kolesar5.2%, Cole Smith0.1%

    6.4 min/game · 1.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKL3vs CHI0.04 xG

    Tomas Hertl84%, Colton Sissons3.3%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    3.8 min/game · 2.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKL4vs CHI0.01 xG

    William Karlsson24%, Ivan Barbashev68%, Brett Howden16%

    1.8 min/game · 3.11 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Spencer Knight .902 (100% to start)
    • Knight .865 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.