On-ice results

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders

2026-27Even strengthThrough 3 team games

Plain expected goals add up every shot in a scramble as if each one were a fresh chance, even though only one goal can come out of it. Sequence xG discounts each follow-up attempt by the chance the play was already over: a shot worth 0.30 after a 0.25 rebound counts as 0.30 × 0.75.

That takes about 5.5% out of the league total, but it moves individual players much more: skaters whose lines live on second and third whacks drop, and clean one-shot rush lines rise.

Leader in 2026-27: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 83.9% sxGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

Early sample: teams have played at most 3 games in 2026-27. Expect big swings.

110 qualified

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Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders, 2026-27, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	83.9%	31	4.70	0.90	84.1%	100%
2	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	79.7%	27	5.14	1.31	80.0%	64%▲55
3	Kirill MarchenkoFTOR	TOR	76.5%	28	3.19	0.98	76.5%	98%▲7
4	Jack RoslovicFTOR	TOR	73.5%	27	2.46	0.89	74.0%	34%▲26
5	Elias PetterssonDVAN	VAN	72.2%	26	2.16	0.83	72.9%	13%▲13
6	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	71.1%	29	2.38	0.96	73.3%	73%▲1
7	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	70.9%	38	3.13	1.29	71.9%	100%
8	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	69.4%	31	1.74	0.77	72.4%	83%▲4
9	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	69.0%	36	2.91	1.31	70.0%	77%▲9.7
10	Luke SchennDVAN	VAN	68.7%	25	2.62	1.20	68.9%	7.3%▲6.9
11	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	66.2%	25	1.98	1.01	68.8%	50%▲34
12	Radko GudasDFLA	FLA	65.6%	23	2.31	1.21	62.9%	25%▲22
13	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	65.4%	31	2.82	1.49	65.8%	100%▲1.5
14	Brady TkachukFFLA	FLA	64.4%	23	1.77	0.98	63.6%	100%▲2.2
15	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	64.0%	24	1.82	1.02	67.2%	100%▲2.7
16	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	62.0%	28	3.03	1.85	61.6%	99%
17	Mika ZibanejadFNYR	NYR	61.9%	44	2.54	1.56	61.5%	98%▲1.1
18	Niko MikkolaDFLA	FLA	61.1%	38	2.21	1.41	59.1%	4.9%▲4.4
19	Oliver BjorkstrandFNYR	NYR	60.7%	37	3.06	1.98	60.6%	20%
20	J.T. MillerFNYR	NYR	60.5%	37	3.35	2.19	60.4%	92%▲7.9
21	Seth JonesDFLA	FLA	60.3%	38	2.06	1.36	61.7%	80%▲32
22	Denton MateychukDCBJ	CBJ	60.2%	24	2.42	1.60	59.0%	42%▲40
23	Dmitry KulikovDFLA	FLA	59.9%	27	2.20	1.47	60.3%	3.2%▲3.1
24	Sandis VilmanisFFLA	FLA	58.6%	24	3.45	2.43	60.1%	6.4%▲6.3
25	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	58.0%	45	2.40	1.74	57.5%	82%▲13
26	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	57.4%	28	1.35	1.00	53.3%	99%
27	Morgan RiellyDTOR	TOR	57.3%	33	2.55	1.90	55.0%	76%▼4.7
28	Max SassonFVAN	VAN	56.0%	26	4.12	3.23	56.4%	4.9%▲4.9
29	Gabe PerreaultFNYR	NYR	55.1%	38	2.59	2.11	54.5%	53%▲47
30	Pavel DorofeyevFNYR	NYR	55.0%	38	3.51	2.88	54.7%	92%▲1.7
31	Alex FormentonFEDM	EDM	54.7%	27	2.13	1.76	57.0%	9.6%▲9.6
32	Liam OhgrenFVAN	VAN	54.3%	29	1.63	1.37	53.8%	17%▲17
33	Paul CotterFVAN	VAN	54.3%	24	2.41	2.03	53.3%	14%▲14
34	Jake WalmanDEDM	EDM	53.5%	24	2.67	2.32	53.8%	33%▲30
35	Vladislav GavrikovDNYR	NYR	53.5%	54	2.35	2.05	53.7%	41%▼5.7
36	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	52.8%	34	2.17	1.94	52.9%	15%▲3.8
37	Ryan SheaDEDM	EDM	51.8%	38	2.77	2.58	51.8%	15%▲9.6
38	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	51.7%	47	2.69	2.52	51.6%	99%▲6.5
39	Sean DurziDNYR	NYR	51.4%	49	2.19	2.07	51.0%	37%▲35
40	Marco RossiFVAN	VAN	51.2%	25	3.09	2.94	51.3%	58%▲12
41	Brock BoeserFVAN	VAN	51.1%	28	1.49	1.43	50.6%	63%▼5.5
42	Marcus PetterssonDNYR	NYR	50.9%	54	2.06	1.98	50.6%	5.8%▲5.4
43	Frank NazarFCHI	CHI	49.5%	28	2.45	2.50	48.7%	54%▲34
44	Kasperi KapanenFEDM	EDM	49.0%	29	3.54	3.68	47.7%	7.5%▲7.2
45	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	48.4%	23	2.33	2.48	48.5%	97%▲8.5
46	Jordan GreenwayFCHI	CHI	48.1%	25	1.75	1.89	48.6%	0.3%
47	Filip HronekDVAN	VAN	47.8%	34	2.20	2.40	46.6%	91%▲14
48	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDTOR	TOR	47.7%	28	2.57	2.82	47.6%	43%▲32
49	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	47.4%	26	1.94	2.15	46.8%	93%▲7.9
50	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	47.3%	24	1.36	1.51	46.6%	34%▼15
51	Alberts SmitsDNYR	NYR	47.1%	42	2.34	2.63	46.2%	35%▲34
52	Troy StecherDTOR	TOR	47.1%	28	1.71	1.92	47.2%	0.2%
53	Zeev BuiumDVAN	VAN	46.0%	40	2.52	2.96	44.4%	74%▲54
54	Eeli TolvanenFNYR	NYR	45.6%	31	1.80	2.16	45.0%	36%▼9.4
55	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	45.3%	30	2.43	2.94	44.0%	4.1%▲3.4
56	Connor MurphyDEDM	EDM	45.2%	38	2.31	2.81	45.9%	5.9%▲5
57	Cole SmithFCHI	CHI	44.9%	26	1.65	2.02	45.4%	0.1%
58	Chris TanevDTOR	TOR	44.9%	31	1.90	2.33	43.6%	6.0%▲5
59	Braden SchneiderDNYR	NYR	44.0%	44	1.89	2.41	43.6%	19%▲17
60	Drew O'ConnorFVAN	VAN	43.7%	26	2.72	3.50	43.3%	5.9%▲4.5
61	Will CuylleFNYR	NYR	43.0%	35	1.80	2.38	42.5%	64%
62	Sam RinzelDCHI	CHI	42.4%	34	2.24	3.05	41.1%	33%▲32
63	Artyom LevshunovDCHI	CHI	42.1%	36	1.82	2.50	41.5%	45%▲43
64	Darren RaddyshDTOR	TOR	41.6%	33	2.16	3.03	39.8%	100%▲3.5
65	Ian ColeDCHI	CHI	41.3%	24	1.62	2.31	40.3%	4.9%▲4.3
66	Jonathan LekkerimäkiFVAN	VAN	41.1%	23	2.53	3.62	41.7%	25%▲25
67	Tom WillanderDVAN	VAN	40.3%	37	2.43	3.60	41.7%	25%▲24
68	Matvei MichkovFPHI	PHI	40.2%	25	1.22	1.82	40.6%	86%▲23
69	Travis KonecnyFPHI	PHI	39.8%	25	2.31	3.50	38.5%	92%▲9.9
70	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	38.5%	23	1.15	1.83	38.3%	99%▲0.9
71	Tyler BertuzziFCHI	CHI	38.4%	29	2.41	3.87	36.7%	62%▼3.2
72	Linus KarlssonFVAN	VAN	38.0%	25	1.49	2.43	37.8%	11%▲9.5
73	Roman KantserovFCHI	CHI	37.8%	27	1.31	2.16	34.3%	59%▲49
74	Wyatt KaiserDCHI	CHI	36.6%	37	1.79	3.09	36.5%	6.5%▲6.2
75	Noah LabaFNYR	NYR	36.3%	36	1.70	2.98	35.9%	11%▲11
76	Ryan GreeneFCHI	CHI	35.0%	28	1.45	2.69	34.9%	10%▲10
77	Patrick KaneFCHI	CHI	34.9%	34	1.96	3.65	33.1%	80%▲0.9
78	Mathieu JosephFEDM	EDM	33.6%	26	1.32	2.61	36.5%	0.1%
79	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	32.4%	28	1.90	3.97	31.7%	67%▲42
80	Bowen ByramDCHI	CHI	32.3%	41	1.94	4.07	30.6%	97%▲6.9
81	Anton FrondellFCHI	CHI	32.0%	27	2.09	4.45	30.9%	72%▲51
82	Joseph VelenoFNYR	NYR	31.4%	34	1.08	2.35	31.3%	3.3%▲3.1
83	Christian DvorakFPHI	PHI	30.8%	30	1.11	2.50	29.7%	16%▲13
84	Nick SeelerDPHI	PHI	29.7%	29	0.92	2.18	27.1%	8.9%▲8.4
85	Noel AcciariFPHI	PHI	29.5%	25	1.30	3.10	27.8%	3.3%▲3.1
86	Elias PetterssonFVAN	VAN	29.3%	26	1.21	2.93	29.4%	87%▼5.8
87	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	28.4%	29	1.29	3.24	27.1%	96%▲16
88	Tye KartyeFNYR	NYR	28.3%	33	1.08	2.73	28.3%	7.2%▲7.1
89	Tyson FoersterFPHI	PHI	28.2%	28	1.05	2.68	28.6%	42%▲38
90	Shakir MukhamadullinDEDM	EDM	28.2%	23	1.33	3.40	27.1%	14%▲14
91	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	27.9%	29	1.07	2.76	27.5%	60%▼11
92	Gavin McKennaFTOR	TOR	27.8%	25	1.61	4.19	26.4%	94%▲11
93	Jamie OleksiakDVAN	VAN	27.6%	37	1.35	3.55	26.7%	5.1%▲4.8
94	William NylanderFTOR	TOR	25.8%	25	1.82	5.24	24.0%	99%▼0.9
95	Simon BenoitDPHI	PHI	25.8%	31	0.81	2.34	23.7%	4.9%▲4.4
96	Travis SanheimDPHI	PHI	25.0%	36	1.99	5.99	24.1%	67%▼7
97	Oliver MooreFCHI	CHI	24.9%	23	1.13	3.43	22.9%	22%▲22
98	Jake DeBruskFVAN	VAN	24.7%	26	0.78	2.38	24.6%	49%▼20
99	Rasmus RistolainenDPHI	PHI	24.0%	34	1.46	4.62	22.9%	7.5%▲6.8
100	K'Andre MillerDCAR	CAR	22.8%	33	0.88	3.00	22.5%	64%▲26

Minimum sample: 23 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 381 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Read it like xGF%: 50% is even. Compare it with the plain xGF% column to see whose numbers are inflated by flurries.

How reliable is it?

Shares the stability of on-ice xGF%. The flurry discount itself is mechanical (no fitted parameters), so it adds no noise.

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