On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2025-265-on-5Through 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2025-26: Jordan Spence (OTT), 62.6% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

602 qualified

Show

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2025-26, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team
1	Jordan SpenceDOTT	OTT	62.6%	1,212	3.24	1.94	60.3%	21%▲17
2	Sam MalinskiDCOL	COL	62.1%	1,322	3.30	2.01	59.0%	56%▲33
3	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	61.7%	803	3.23	2.00	55.6%	93%▲9
4	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	61.6%	923	3.18	1.98	54.6%	79%▲2.9
5	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	61.0%	751	3.36	2.15	58.2%	100%▲2.2
6	Mark JankowskiFCAR	CAR	60.5%	656	2.63	1.71	58.7%	0.2%
7	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	60.0%	1,081	3.42	2.28	53.6%	99%▲1.4
8	Brock NelsonFCOL	COL	60.0%	1,085	3.38	2.25	57.5%	87%▼4
9	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	59.8%	985	3.81	2.56	58.4%	100%▲1.9
10	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	59.8%	1,189	3.49	2.35	57.5%	60%▼2.3
11	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	59.8%	948	3.37	2.27	57.6%	60%
12	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.6%	1,313	3.83	2.59	57.6%	100%▲0.8
13	Jack DruryFCOL	COL	59.5%	978	2.63	1.79	58.4%	5.6%▲5.4
14	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	59.4%	827	3.28	2.24	59.9%	96%▲16
15	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.4%	998	3.56	2.44	55.5%	54%▲37
16	Dylan CozensFOTT	OTT	59.3%	1,053	2.99	2.05	56.8%	90%▲3.6
17	William CarrierFCAR	CAR	58.8%	741	2.61	1.83	59.9%	0.1%
18	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	58.6%	1,089	3.42	2.42	61.4%	67%▲42
19	Gabriel LandeskogFCOL	COL	58.5%	793	3.56	2.52	55.5%	50%▲32
20	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	58.4%	1,432	3.43	2.44	56.0%	77%▲9.7
21	Danton HeinenFCBJ/PIT	CBJ/PIT	58.4%	498	2.49	1.77	53.3%	0.0%
22	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	58.3%	1,466	3.47	2.48	55.2%	100%
23	Claude GirouxFOTT	OTT	58.1%	979	2.84	2.04	54.5%	30%▲20
24	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	58.1%	842	3.20	2.31	58.6%	8.1%▲7.8
25	Parker KellyFCOL	COL	58.0%	852	2.59	1.88	56.9%	11%▲5.7
26	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	57.7%	1,097	3.41	2.50	60.4%	68%▲21
27	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	57.4%	1,283	2.94	2.18	54.5%	91%▲28
28	Gage GoncalvesFTBL	TBL	57.4%	857	2.72	2.02	53.0%	11%▲11
29	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	57.3%	1,213	3.14	2.33	51.8%	67%▲26
30	Hendrix LapierreFWSH	WSH	57.3%	638	2.77	2.06	54.3%	7.3%▲7.2
31	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	57.3%	1,300	3.20	2.39	54.8%	100%▲1
32	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.2%	899	3.16	2.36	51.7%	93%▲20
33	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	57.2%	1,115	3.58	2.68	56.2%	100%
34	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	57.1%	1,208	3.09	2.31	56.3%	100%▲2
35	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	57.1%	669	2.61	1.96	50.1%	85%▲7.6
36	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	57.0%	1,107	2.81	2.11	54.5%	99%▲1.1
37	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	57.0%	874	3.48	2.62	56.1%	51%▲19
38	Kaedan KorczakDVGK	VGK	57.0%	1,186	2.70	2.04	51.4%	6.7%▲6.5
39	Joel NystromDCAR	CAR	57.0%	522	3.18	2.40	59.5%	4.0%▲4
40	Jake SandersonDOTT	OTT	57.0%	1,139	2.74	2.07	55.8%	99%▲3.2
41	Josh MansonDCOL	COL	56.9%	1,212	2.97	2.25	57.3%	32%▲16
42	K'Andre MillerDCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,332	3.08	2.34	61.8%	64%▲26
43	Noah HanifinDVGK	VGK	56.8%	1,347	2.75	2.09	53.9%	52%▼23
44	Martin NecasFCOL	COL	56.8%	1,269	3.45	2.62	56.1%	100%▲1.3
45	Samuel GirardDCOL/PIT	COL/PIT	56.7%	1,003	3.00	2.29	53.6%	8.2%▲7.8
46	Denver BarkeyFPHI	PHI	56.7%	497	2.58	1.97	49.8%	15%▲14
47	Charle-Edouard D'AstousDTBL	TBL	56.6%	1,153	2.78	2.13	53.3%	22%▲17
48	Taylor HallFCAR	CAR	56.5%	1,002	3.28	2.52	59.9%	28%▲21
49	Drake BathersonFOTT	OTT	56.5%	1,039	2.84	2.18	55.2%	97%▲7.4
50	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	56.5%	1,389	3.55	2.73	54.2%	100%▲1.5
51	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	56.5%	1,045	3.00	2.31	60.6%	93%▲7.9
52	Fabian ZetterlundFOTT	OTT	56.5%	940	2.94	2.26	52.7%	13%▲6.6
53	Thomas ChabotDOTT	OTT	56.4%	997	3.01	2.32	52.4%	83%▼11
54	Darren RaddyshDTBL	TBL	56.4%	1,230	3.03	2.34	57.3%	100%▲3.5
55	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	56.4%	1,230	3.07	2.37	51.2%	100%▲0.5
56	Maxwell CrozierDTBL	TBL	56.4%	503	2.70	2.09	53.7%	5.6%▲5.5
57	Eric RobinsonFCAR	CAR	56.4%	684	2.67	2.06	57.4%	3.2%▲3.1
58	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	56.4%	1,094	2.67	2.07	56.0%	92%▲1.7
59	Damon SeversonDCBJ	CBJ	56.3%	1,319	2.92	2.27	54.5%	9.4%▲6.2
60	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	56.3%	821	2.81	2.19	54.2%	11%▲11
61	Michael CarconeFUTA	UTA	56.2%	915	2.91	2.27	57.8%	5.0%▲4
62	Kailer YamamotoFUTA	UTA	56.2%	661	2.63	2.05	52.8%	0.2%
63	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	56.2%	1,014	2.71	2.11	55.7%	99%▲6.5
64	Nick CousinsFOTT	OTT	56.2%	916	2.44	1.90	52.2%	0.1%
65	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	56.1%	1,458	3.01	2.35	61.3%	60%▼11
66	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	56.1%	1,331	2.65	2.07	49.7%	100%▲4.5
67	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	56.1%	1,092	2.76	2.16	52.8%	23%▲20
68	Lane HutsonDMTL	MTL	55.9%	1,505	3.07	2.42	52.9%	99%▲3.1
69	Nick SchmaltzFUTA	UTA	55.8%	1,162	2.88	2.28	55.8%	94%▲4.7
70	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	55.8%	782	2.78	2.20	50.3%	—
71	Mike ReillyDCAR	CAR	55.8%	568	2.96	2.34	60.0%	0.1%
72	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	55.7%	925	2.79	2.22	57.2%	—
73	Brandon SaadFVGK	VGK	55.7%	598	2.77	2.21	51.9%	—
74	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	55.6%	889	3.54	2.82	51.9%	98%▼1.4
75	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	55.6%	664	2.74	2.19	58.7%	15%▲3.8
76	Tommy NovakFPIT	PIT	55.6%	1,021	3.28	2.62	50.9%	11%▲9.1
77	Leo CarlssonFANA	ANA	55.4%	948	3.25	2.62	56.2%	94%▲10
78	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	55.3%	1,041	3.20	2.58	53.3%	100%
79	David PerronFOTT/DET	OTT/DET	55.3%	741	2.40	1.94	51.3%	0.2%
80	Nate SchmidtDUTA	UTA	55.3%	1,361	2.93	2.37	55.2%	4.9%▲4.5
81	Troy TerryFANA	ANA	55.3%	805	3.14	2.54	54.4%	47%▲34
82	Brent BurnsDCOL	COL	55.3%	1,269	3.02	2.45	55.6%	50%▼14
83	J.J. MoserDTBL	TBL	55.2%	1,407	3.03	2.46	57.0%	22%▲20
84	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	55.2%	863	2.99	2.43	50.3%	95%▲9.2
85	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	55.2%	1,025	2.72	2.21	56.2%	83%▲2.9
86	Mavrik BourqueFDAL	DAL	55.2%	1,129	2.76	2.24	52.0%	35%▲31
87	John MarinoDUTA	UTA	55.2%	1,424	2.77	2.25	54.4%	18%▲13
88	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	55.2%	1,107	3.07	2.50	53.3%	100%
89	Tom WilsonFWSH	WSH	55.1%	961	3.03	2.47	53.7%	95%▲6.5
90	Tim StützleFOTT	OTT	55.1%	1,083	2.97	2.42	54.4%	100%▲0.8
91	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	55.1%	1,051	3.38	2.75	61.4%	99%▲0.9
92	Zach WerenskiDCBJ	CBJ	55.0%	1,551	3.00	2.46	53.9%	100%
93	Pontus HolmbergFTBL	TBL	55.0%	897	2.33	1.91	54.3%	0.1%
94	Chris KreiderFANA	ANA	55.0%	935	3.13	2.56	55.9%	62%▲29
95	Josh NorrisFBUF	BUF	55.0%	514	2.86	2.35	51.2%	39%▲32
96	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	54.9%	1,439	2.53	2.08	48.6%	37%▼32
97	Trevor ZegrasFPHI	PHI	54.9%	1,175	3.02	2.48	49.6%	86%▲19
98	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	54.8%	1,139	3.17	2.61	56.0%	96%▲11
99	Ryan McDonaghDTBL	TBL	54.8%	731	2.54	2.10	50.3%	7.3%▲6.8
100	Drew DoughtyDLAK	LAK	54.7%	1,335	2.49	2.06	54.0%	21%▲11

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 338 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

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