How to spot breakouts before the waiver wire with Ascension

What it tells you

A score of 50 means no change. Six parts feed it: ice time (all situations, 5v5 and power play), power-play role (share of team PP time and PP1 games), line role, time with the team’s top scorers, underlying production (individual expected goals, on-ice expected goals for and points per game) and Line Watch events such as a PP1 promotion. Production carries the most weight, and small samples are shrunk so one big game does not create a riser.

Tiers: Surging is 75 and up, Rising 60 to 74, Steady 41 to 59, Cooling 26 to 40 and Falling 25 or below. Each player shows up to four reasons, such as more power-play time or a move to the top line.

• Backtest: on 2025-26 January to March holdouts, Surging players beat their previous 20-game scoring rate over the next 10 games 58% of the time, and Falling players only 32%.
• A plain points-based model predicts points about as well; Ascension’s value is spotting the role change before or without the points. Treat it as a tiebreaker and an early warning, not a guarantee.
• The same tiers appear as role trend chips in Who Should I Start, Player Comparison and Streamer Finder.

Step by step

1. 1

   Step 1: Open the board

   Start on the Rising tab with the default Last 5 games window and Regulars only (12:00+ TOI or 0.4+ P/GP) switched on.

   Open Ascension →
2. 2

   Step 2: Filter to players you can add

   Choose “Available in an average league” with a rostered ceiling of 25%, 50% or 75%, and narrow by position or team.

3. 3

   Step 3: Read the reasons

   Expand a player with “+” to see which parts moved: ice time, PP role, line role, elite linemates, production or Line Watch events, and his recent versus previous TOI and P/GP.

4. 4

   Step 4: Check the Falling tab for your roster

   Switch to Falling and look for your own players. A drop in ice time and PP role is a warning; a drop in production alone may be noise.

5. 5

   Step 5: Confirm with other tools

   Use Breakout Comps to see how similar role jumps played out, and Luck Meter to tell a real slump from bad luck.

   Breakout Comps →

In category leagues

Role drives categories. More ice time feeds shots, hits and blocks; a PP1 promotion feeds power-play points and assists. In category leagues, read the reasons, not just the score: a defenseman Rising on ice time is a blocks add, and a forward Rising on PP role is a PPP add.

In Who Should I Start, a Toss-up between two skaters is broken by the role trend, so the Surging player gets the start when the projections cannot separate them.

In points leagues

In points leagues, ice time and power-play role are the best early signs of more points. A Surging player with a new PP1 role is the kind of add that pays off for weeks, not just a night.

For holds and drops, a Falling tier driven by lost ice time is a stronger sell signal than a scoring slump with steady minutes.

Tactics that win

• Add on role, not points

  Players Rising on ice time and PP role, with modest points, are often still cheap on waivers.

• Watch the weekly change

  The Wk column shows the score change versus about a week ago; a big jump flags a fresh role change.

• Use the 3-game window for news

  After a line shuffle, Last 3 games reacts faster, at the cost of more noise.

• Hold steady minutes

  A cold streak with Steady ice time and PP role is usually worth holding.

Mistakes to avoid

• Treating a score as a projection

  Ascension measures change in role, not how many points a player will score.

• Chasing one game

  Shrinkage helps, but check the 5 and 10 game windows before dropping a regular.

• Ignoring the reasons

  A riser on production alone is less reliable than one rising on ice time and PP role.

• Turning off Regulars only blindly

  Fringe players can post big swings from tiny minutes. Keep the filter on unless you need deep leagues.

Frequently asked questions