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NHL Stack Finder: Thursday, Oct 1

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Thursday, Oct 1 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: UTA L1 (Schmaltz–Crouse–Keller) vs CHI.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1UTAL1vs CHI0.87 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Lawson Crouse36%, Clayton Keller100%

    14.3 min/game · 3.04 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  2. #2UTAL2vs CHI0.79 xG

    Kailer Yamamoto0.2%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    12.0 min/game · 3.28 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  3. #3UTAPP1vs CHI0.77 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Clayton Keller100%, Mikhail Sergachev98%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    4.8 min/game · 9.33 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI shorthanded time −1%
    • CHI PK xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  4. #4BUFL3vs CBJ0.70 xG

    Alex Tuch94%, Ryan McLeod26%, Josh Doan61%

    12.7 min/game · 4.48 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CBJ 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  5. #5MINL1vs NSH0.66 xG

    Mats Zuccarello50%, Ryan Hartman40%, Kirill Kaprizov98%

    11.2 min/game · 3.32 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NSH 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Juuse Saros .894 (100% to start)
    • Saros .780 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  6. #6BUFL2vs CBJ0.65 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris39%, Zach Benson56%

    14.5 min/game · 3.61 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CBJ 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  7. #7TBLL1vs NYR0.56 xG

    Nikita Kucherov100%, Anthony Cirelli51%, Brandon Hagel100%

    9.8 min/game · 4.15 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  8. #8NJDL1vs PHI0.55 xG

    Connor Brown6.7%, Jesper Bratt96%, Jack Hughes100%

    12.8 min/game · 3.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  9. #9SJSL1vs FLA0.51 xG

    Will Smith95%, Macklin Celebrini100%, Igor Chernyshov52%

    11.9 min/game · 2.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Akira Schmid .892 (100% to start)
    • Schmid .839 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  10. #10NJDL2vs PHI0.50 xG

    Timo Meier82%, Nico Hischier98%, Dawson Mercer25%

    12.3 min/game · 2.92 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2

By game

PHI @ NJD

  • NJDL1vs PHI0.55 xG

    Connor Brown6.7%, Jesper Bratt96%, Jack Hughes100%

    12.8 min/game · 3.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NJDL2vs PHI0.50 xG

    Timo Meier82%, Nico Hischier98%, Dawson Mercer25%

    12.3 min/game · 2.92 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NJDPP1vs PHI0.25 xG

    Connor Brown6.7%, Jesper Bratt96%, Nico Hischier98%, Jack Hughes100%, Simon Nemec62%

    2.4 min/game · 6.73 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI shorthanded time +4%
    • PHI PK xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • NJDL4vs PHI0.17 xG

    Nick Bjugstad0.1%, Cody Glass4.9%, Maxim Tsyplakov14%

    6.6 min/game · 2.26 xGF/60 · P(intact) 75%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Joseph Woll .900 (100% to start)
    • Woll .878 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 2
  • PHIL2vs NJD0.16 xG

    Christian Dvorak16%, Travis Konecny92%, Tyson Foerster42%

    5.9 min/game · 2.09 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NJD 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Jake Allen .904 (100% to start)
    • Allen .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • PHIL4vs NJD0.15 xG

    Trevor Zegras86%, Alex Bump15%, Porter Martone91%

    4.6 min/game · 2.39 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NJD 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Jake Allen .904 (100% to start)
    • Allen .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • PHIL3vs NJD0.04 xG

    Carl Grundstrom0.1%, Denver Barkey15%, Jett Luchanko22%

    10.7 min/game · 1.69 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • NJD 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Jake Allen .904 (100% to start)
    • Allen .848 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • PHIPP1vs NJD0.03 xG

    Sean Couturier9.2%, Travis Konecny92%, Trevor Zegras86%, Jamie Drysdale55%, Tyson Foerster42%

    1.1 min/game · 7.01 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • NJD shorthanded time −11%
    • NJD PK xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Jake Allen .904 (100% to start)
    • Allen .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

TBL @ NYR

  • TBLL1vs NYR0.56 xG

    Nikita Kucherov100%, Anthony Cirelli51%, Brandon Hagel100%

    9.8 min/game · 4.15 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • NYRL1vs TBL0.43 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, Alexis Lafrenière82%, Gabe Perreault53%

    12.7 min/game · 2.53 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • TBL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Andrei Vasilevskiy .911 (100% to start)
    • Vasilevskiy .865 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • TBLPP1vs NYR0.42 xG

    Nikita Kucherov100%, Jake Guentzel100%, Brayden Point95%, Darren Raddysh100%, Brandon Hagel100%

    3.3 min/game · 8.39 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR shorthanded time −1%
    • NYR PK xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • TBLL4vs NYR0.25 xG

    Corey Perry7.4%, Jake Guentzel100%, Brayden Point95%

    6.2 min/game · 3.39 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • TBLL3vs NYR0.22 xG

    Yanni Gourde4.9%, Zemgus Girgensons3.2%, Nick Paul8.1%

    8.9 min/game · 2.12 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (100% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • NYRPP1vs TBL0.11 xG

    Vincent Trocheck88%, Mika Zibanejad98%, J.T. Miller92%, Adam Fox99%, Alexis Lafrenière82%

    4.4 min/game · 7.79 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • TBL shorthanded time +18%
    • TBL PK xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Andrei Vasilevskiy .911 (100% to start)
    • Vasilevskiy .865 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • NYRL2vs TBL0.10 xG

    J.T. Miller92%, Conor Sheary0.1%, Tye Kartye7.2%

    9.6 min/game · 3.05 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • TBL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Andrei Vasilevskiy .911 (100% to start)
    • Vasilevskiy .865 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • NYRL4vs TBL0.04 xG

    Taylor Raddysh0.1%, Adam Sykora6.4%, Noah Laba11%

    7.0 min/game · 3.01 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • TBL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Andrei Vasilevskiy .911 (100% to start)
    • Vasilevskiy .865 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • NYRL3vs TBL0.03 xG

    Vincent Trocheck88%, Will Cuylle64%, Jaroslav Chmelar3.2%

    10.7 min/game · 1.77 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • TBL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Andrei Vasilevskiy .911 (100% to start)
    • Vasilevskiy .865 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3

BUF @ CBJ

  • BUFL3vs CBJ0.70 xG

    Alex Tuch94%, Ryan McLeod26%, Josh Doan61%

    12.7 min/game · 4.48 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CBJ 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BUFL2vs CBJ0.65 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris39%, Zach Benson56%

    14.5 min/game · 3.61 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CBJ 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BUFL1vs CBJ0.46 xG

    Jason Zucker23%, Jack Quinn45%, Konsta Helenius40%

    10.0 min/game · 3.17 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CBJ 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CBJL3vs BUF0.40 xG

    Boone Jenner21%, Danton Heinen0.0%, Mason Marchment47%

    7.0 min/game · 3.79 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (100% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CBJL1vs BUF0.37 xG

    Isac Lundeström0.0%, Kirill Marchenko98%, Adam Fantilli92%

    9.8 min/game · 2.53 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (100% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CBJPP1vs BUF0.36 xG

    Charlie Coyle48%, Zach Werenski100%, Mason Marchment47%, Kirill Marchenko98%, Adam Fantilli92%

    2.8 min/game · 8.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BUF shorthanded time −10%
    • BUF PK xGA/60 −3%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (100% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CBJL2vs BUF0.29 xG

    Charlie Coyle48%, Conor Garland10%, Cole Sillinger11%

    7.4 min/game · 2.66 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (100% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CBJL4vs BUF0.26 xG

    Miles Wood0.1%, Sean Monahan19%, Kent Johnson30%

    6.3 min/game · 2.74 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (100% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • BUFPP1vs CBJ0.23 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Rasmus Dahlin100%, Jack Quinn45%, Josh Doan61%, Zach Benson56%

    1.7 min/game · 8.22 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CBJ shorthanded time −1%
    • CBJ PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Jet Greaves .907 (100% to start)
    • Greaves .901 on cycle shots
    • Together 3 of last 3

MIN @ NSH

CHI @ UTA

  • UTAL1vs CHI0.87 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Lawson Crouse36%, Clayton Keller100%

    14.3 min/game · 3.04 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • UTAL2vs CHI0.79 xG

    Kailer Yamamoto0.2%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    12.0 min/game · 3.28 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • UTAPP1vs CHI0.77 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Clayton Keller100%, Mikhail Sergachev98%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    4.8 min/game · 9.33 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CHI shorthanded time −1%
    • CHI PK xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CHIL3vs UTA0.27 xG

    Jordan Greenway0.3%, Cole Smith0.1%, Ryan Greene10%

    10.6 min/game · 2.36 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (100% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • UTAL4vs CHI0.26 xG

    Kevin Stenlund0.1%, Brandon Tanev0.1%, Jack McBain18%

    6.6 min/game · 2.74 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +12%
    • vs Arvid Soderblom .877 (100% to start)
    • Soderblom .854 on other shots
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CHIL4vs UTA0.15 xG

    Patrick Kane80%, Oliver Moore22%, Roman Kantserov59%

    9.1 min/game · 1.51 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (100% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CHIPP1vs UTA0.15 xG

    Teuvo Teravainen13%, Tyler Bertuzzi62%, Frank Nazar54%, Connor Bedard98%, Anton Frondell72%

    4.1 min/game · 9.40 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • UTA shorthanded time −4%
    • UTA PK xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (100% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CHIL2vs UTA0.10 xG

    Ryan Donato9.9%, Frank Nazar54%, Nick Lardis23%

    5.4 min/game · 1.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (100% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CHIL1vs UTA0.08 xG

    Tyler Bertuzzi62%, Ilya Mikheyev8.4%, Anton Frondell72%

    9.1 min/game · 2.48 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −6%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (100% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

SEA @ CGY

  • SEAL3vs CGY0.47 xG

    Kaapo Kakko17%, Jani Nyman14%, Shane Wright27%

    8.6 min/game · 3.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (100% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CGYL1vs SEA0.44 xG

    Mikael Backlund14%, Blake Coleman38%, Joel Farabee11%

    10.7 min/game · 2.54 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (100% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • SEAL1vs CGY0.37 xG

    Jordan Eberle30%, Bobby McMann45%, Matty Beniers49%

    10.6 min/game · 2.06 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (100% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CGYL3vs SEA0.27 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Matt Coronato40%, Matvei Gridin40%

    10.8 min/game · 2.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (100% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • SEAL2vs CGY0.27 xG

    Frederick Gaudreau0.1%, Ryan Winterton4.0%, Ben Meyers0.0%

    9.7 min/game · 1.86 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (100% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • SEAPP1vs CGY0.14 xG

    Brandon Montour83%, Kaapo Kakko17%, Jani Nyman14%, Shane Wright27%, Berkly Catton30%

    1.9 min/game · 6.22 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • CGY shorthanded time +29%
    • CGY PK xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (100% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CGYL2vs SEA0.05 xG

    Yegor Sharangovich7.8%, Aydar Suniev5.6%, Tyson Gross3.2%

    6.0 min/game · 2.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (100% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CGYL4vs SEA0.03 xG

    Connor Zary10%, Rory Kerins4.0%, Adam Klapka8.9%

    10.3 min/game · 1.42 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (100% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3

EDM @ VAN

FLA @ SJS

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.