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NHL Stack Finder: Sunday, Oct 4

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Sunday, Oct 4 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: UTA PP1 (Schmaltz–Keller–Sergachev–Guenther–Cooley) vs NYR.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1UTAPP1vs NYR0.63 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Clayton Keller100%, Mikhail Sergachev98%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    4.3 min/game · 9.49 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR shorthanded time +3%
    • NYR PK xGA/60 +7%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (81% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  2. #2VGKL2vs VAN0.55 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev67%, Jack Eichel99%

    8.8 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  3. #3ANAL1vs FLA0.50 xG

    Alex Killorn5.1%, Mikael Granlund51%, Beckett Sennecke93%

    10.5 min/game · 2.89 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (76% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  4. #4VGKL3vs VAN0.50 xG

    Tomas Hertl83%, Victor Olofsson12%, Trevor Connelly32%

    6.8 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  5. #5NYRL2vs UTA0.48 xG

    J.T. Miller92%, Oliver Bjorkstrand20%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    8.9 min/game · 3.59 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  6. #6FLAL2vs ANA0.44 xG

    Eetu Luostarinen11%, Anton Lundell45%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%

    7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .889 (84% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  7. #7FLAL1vs ANA0.44 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe73%, Sam Bennett83%, Matthew Tkachuk100%

    9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • ANA 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Lukas Dostal .889 (84% to start)
    • Dostal .875 on cycle shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  8. #8NYRL1vs UTA0.43 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, Alexis Lafrenière82%, Gabe Perreault53%

    10.8 min/game · 2.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  9. #9ANAL2vs FLA0.42 xG

    A.J. Greer7.5%, Cutter Gauthier98%, Leo Carlsson94%

    9.9 min/game · 3.57 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (76% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  10. #10VGKPP1vs VAN0.38 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl83%, Shea Theodore91%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%

    3.0 min/game · 7.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN shorthanded time −13%
    • VAN PK xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

By game

WPG @ DET

UTA @ NYR

  • UTAPP1vs NYR0.63 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Clayton Keller100%, Mikhail Sergachev98%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    4.3 min/game · 9.49 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • NYR shorthanded time +3%
    • NYR PK xGA/60 +7%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (81% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • NYRL2vs UTA0.48 xG

    J.T. Miller92%, Oliver Bjorkstrand20%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%

    8.9 min/game · 3.59 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • NYRL1vs UTA0.43 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, Alexis Lafrenière82%, Gabe Perreault53%

    10.8 min/game · 2.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • NYRL3vs UTA0.29 xG

    Eeli Tolvanen36%, Will Cuylle64%, Noah Laba11%

    8.0 min/game · 2.43 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • NYRPP1vs UTA0.23 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, J.T. Miller92%, Adam Fox99%, Pavel Dorofeyev92%, Alexis Lafrenière82%

    2.3 min/game · 6.34 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • UTA shorthanded time −1%
    • UTA PK xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • UTAL1vs NYR0.14 xG

    Nick Schmaltz94%, Lawson Crouse36%, Clayton Keller100%

    13.6 min/game · 3.03 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (81% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • NYRL4vs UTA0.13 xG

    Joseph Veleno3.3%, Tye Kartye7.2%, Jaroslav Chmelar3.2%

    5.3 min/game · 1.87 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • UTA 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Karel Vejmelka .898 (61% to start)
    • Vejmelka .740 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • UTAL2vs NYR0.13 xG

    Kailer Yamamoto0.2%, Dylan Guenther99%, Logan Cooley94%

    10.9 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (81% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • UTAL4vs NYR0.03 xG

    Kevin Stenlund0.1%, Brandon Tanev0.1%, Jack McBain18%

    6.6 min/game · 2.74 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • NYR 5v5 xGA/60 −5%
    • vs Igor Shesterkin .912 (81% to start)
    • Shesterkin .847 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3

FLA @ ANA

CGY @ SEA

  • SEAPP1vs CGY0.36 xG

    Jordan Eberle30%, Chandler Stephenson17%, Jared McCann71%, Vince Dunn88%, Bobby McMann45%

    4.0 min/game · 7.88 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • CGY shorthanded time +33%
    • CGY PK xGA/60 +3%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (62% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CGYL2vs SEA0.31 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Matt Coronato40%, Matvei Gridin40%

    10.2 min/game · 2.24 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (59% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CGYL3vs SEA0.30 xG

    Ryan Strome4.0%, Yegor Sharangovich7.8%, Connor Zary10%

    10.9 min/game · 2.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (59% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CGYL4vs SEA0.18 xG

    Martin Pospisil6.4%, Adam Klapka8.9%, Maxim Tsyplakov14%

    9.1 min/game · 1.78 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (59% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • CGYPP1vs SEA0.18 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Joel Farabee11%, Matt Coronato40%, Zayne Parekh69%, Matvei Gridin40%

    1.8 min/game · 6.41 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • SEA shorthanded time −19%
    • SEA PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (59% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • SEAL3vs CGY0.13 xG

    Kaapo Kakko17%, Jani Nyman14%, Shane Wright27%

    8.6 min/game · 3.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (62% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CGYL1vs SEA0.10 xG

    Mikael Backlund14%, Blake Coleman38%, Joel Farabee11%

    10.2 min/game · 2.49 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • SEA 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Joey Daccord .899 (59% to start)
    • Daccord .862 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • SEAL2vs CGY0.08 xG

    Jordan Eberle30%, Bobby McMann45%, Matty Beniers49%

    9.4 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (62% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • SEAL1vs CGY0.07 xG

    Frederick Gaudreau0.1%, Ryan Winterton4.0%, Ben Meyers0.0%

    9.7 min/game · 1.86 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (62% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

VGK @ VAN

  • VGKL2vs VAN0.55 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev67%, Jack Eichel99%

    8.8 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKL3vs VAN0.50 xG

    Tomas Hertl83%, Victor Olofsson12%, Trevor Connelly32%

    6.8 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKPP1vs VAN0.38 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl83%, Shea Theodore91%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%

    3.0 min/game · 7.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN shorthanded time −13%
    • VAN PK xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKL1vs VAN0.33 xG

    William Karlsson24%, Mitch Marner99%, Brett Howden15%

    8.8 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VANPP1vs VGK0.23 xG

    Brock Boeser63%, Jake DeBrusk49%, Filip Hronek91%, Elias Pettersson87%, Marco Rossi58%

    2.3 min/game · 8.11 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VGK shorthanded time +7%
    • VGK PK xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (68% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VGKL4vs VAN0.18 xG

    Nic Dowd3.2%, Marc Gatcomb4.9%, Braeden Bowman16%

    5.5 min/game · 1.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VAN 5v5 xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Kevin Lankinen .872 (59% to start)
    • Lankinen .780 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VANL1vs VGK0.17 xG

    Brock Boeser63%, Marco Rossi58%, Liam Ohgren17%

    7.5 min/game · 1.84 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (68% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VANL2vs VGK0.17 xG

    Linus Karlsson11%, Drew O'Connor5.9%, Max Sasson4.9%

    7.0 min/game · 1.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (68% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VANL4vs VGK0.13 xG

    Brendan Gallagher3.3%, Paul Cotter14%, Arshdeep Bains3.2%

    5.6 min/game · 1.78 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (68% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • VANL3vs VGK0.10 xG

    Jake DeBrusk49%, Elias Pettersson87%, Jonathan Lekkerimäki25%

    6.5 min/game · 1.24 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (68% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 2 of last 3

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.