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NHL Stack Finder: Monday, Oct 12

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Monday, Oct 12 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: NJD PP1 (Bratt–Hischier–Hughes–Evangelista–Hughes) vs OTT.

Data updated: Oct 3, 5:21 PM ET

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

#1NJDPP1vs OTT0.65 xG
Jesper Bratt97%, Nico Hischier97%, Jack Hughes100%, Luke Evangelista70%, Luke Hughes84%
5.6 min/game · 6.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT shorthanded time +6%
- OTT PK xGA/60 −3%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
#2NJDL1vs OTT0.64 xG
Evan Rodrigues8.3%, Arseny Gritsyuk22%, Dawson Mercer25%
10.9 min/game · 3.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
#3NJDL2vs OTT0.56 xG
Anthony Mantha52%, Jesper Bratt97%, Jack Hughes100%
10.9 min/game · 3.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
#4FLAL2vs BUF0.48 xG
Eetu Luostarinen12%, Anton Lundell46%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%
7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
#5FLAL1vs BUF0.48 xG
Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett84%, Matthew Tkachuk100%
9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
#6MINPP1vs VGK0.46 xG
Joel Eriksson Ek82%, Kirill Kaprizov98%, Quinn Hughes100%, Matt Boldy100%, Maxim Shabanov26%
5.6 min/game · 7.38 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- VGK shorthanded time +2%
- VGK PK xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 1 of last 3
#7BUFPP1vs FLA0.43 xG
Tage Thompson100%, Rasmus Dahlin100%, Jack Quinn45%, Josh Doan61%, Zach Benson56%
3.0 min/game · 9.30 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- FLA shorthanded time +16%
- FLA PK xGA/60 −9%
- vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (61% to start)
- Markstrom .811 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
#8VGKL2vs MIN0.41 xG
Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev68%, Jack Eichel99%
8.8 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
#9VGKPP1vs MIN0.39 xG
Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl84%, Shea Theodore91%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%
3.5 min/game · 7.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN shorthanded time +3%
- MIN PK xGA/60 +14%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
#10VGKL3vs MIN0.37 xG
Tomas Hertl84%, Victor Olofsson14%, Trevor Connelly33%
6.8 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3

By game

FLA @ BUF

FLAL2vs BUF0.48 xG
Eetu Luostarinen12%, Anton Lundell46%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%
7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
FLAL1vs BUF0.48 xG
Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett84%, Matthew Tkachuk100%
9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
BUFPP1vs FLA0.43 xG
Tage Thompson100%, Rasmus Dahlin100%, Jack Quinn45%, Josh Doan61%, Zach Benson56%
3.0 min/game · 9.30 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- FLA shorthanded time +16%
- FLA PK xGA/60 −9%
- vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (61% to start)
- Markstrom .811 on rebounds
- Together 3 of last 3
FLAPP1vs BUF0.31 xG
Aleksander Barkov97%, Seth Jones80%, Sam Reinhart99%, Matthew Tkachuk100%, Brady Tkachuk100%
2.6 min/game · 7.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF shorthanded time −12%
- BUF PK xGA/60 +6%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
BUFL2vs FLA0.24 xG
Alex Tuch94%, Ryan McLeod26%, Josh Doan61%
12.7 min/game · 4.48 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- FLA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (61% to start)
- Markstrom .811 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
BUFL1vs FLA0.22 xG
Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris39%, Zach Benson56%
14.5 min/game · 3.61 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- FLA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (61% to start)
- Markstrom .811 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
FLAL3vs BUF0.15 xG
Aleksander Barkov97%, Sam Reinhart99%, Brady Tkachuk100%
5.8 min/game · 1.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2
BUFL3vs FLA0.15 xG
Jason Zucker23%, Jack Quinn45%, Konsta Helenius40%
11.5 min/game · 3.03 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- FLA 5v5 xGA/60 +2%
- vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (61% to start)
- Markstrom .811 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
FLAL4vs BUF0.11 xG
Lars Eller0.2%, Garnet Hathaway4.8%, Bokondji Imama0.2%
4.0 min/game · 1.77 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
- vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .907 (67% to start)
- Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 2

OTT @ NJD

NJDPP1vs OTT0.65 xG
Jesper Bratt97%, Nico Hischier97%, Jack Hughes100%, Luke Evangelista70%, Luke Hughes84%
5.6 min/game · 6.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT shorthanded time +6%
- OTT PK xGA/60 −3%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
NJDL1vs OTT0.64 xG
Evan Rodrigues8.3%, Arseny Gritsyuk22%, Dawson Mercer25%
10.9 min/game · 3.71 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
NJDL2vs OTT0.56 xG
Anthony Mantha52%, Jesper Bratt97%, Jack Hughes100%
10.9 min/game · 3.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
NJDL3vs OTT0.35 xG
Timo Meier82%, Nico Hischier97%, Luke Evangelista70%
8.7 min/game · 2.55 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1
NJDL4vs OTT0.14 xG
Stefan Noesen0.1%, Cody Glass4.9%, Amadeus Lombardi4.8%
4.4 min/game · 1.97 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%
- OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
- vs Linus Ullmark .891 (47% to start)
- Ullmark .807 on rebounds
- Together 1 of last 1

VGK @ MIN

MINPP1vs VGK0.46 xG
Joel Eriksson Ek82%, Kirill Kaprizov98%, Quinn Hughes100%, Matt Boldy100%, Maxim Shabanov26%
5.6 min/game · 7.38 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%
- VGK shorthanded time +2%
- VGK PK xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 1 of last 3
VGKL2vs MIN0.41 xG
Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev68%, Jack Eichel99%
8.8 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
VGKPP1vs MIN0.39 xG
Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl84%, Shea Theodore91%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%
3.5 min/game · 7.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN shorthanded time +3%
- MIN PK xGA/60 +14%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
VGKL3vs MIN0.37 xG
Tomas Hertl84%, Victor Olofsson14%, Trevor Connelly33%
6.8 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
VGKL1vs MIN0.25 xG
William Karlsson24%, Mitch Marner99%, Brett Howden16%
8.8 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
MINL1vs VGK0.14 xG
Mats Zuccarello51%, Ryan Hartman40%, Kirill Kaprizov98%
11.3 min/game · 3.33 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 2 of last 3
VGKL4vs MIN0.14 xG
Nic Dowd3.2%, Marc Gatcomb5.7%, Braeden Bowman16%
5.5 min/game · 1.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%
- MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
- vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (57% to start)
- Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
- Together 2 of last 3
MINL3vs VGK0.07 xG
Nick Foligno4.1%, Marcus Foligno4.2%, Nico Sturm0.1%
6.3 min/game · 2.72 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 2 of last 3
MINL2vs VGK0.06 xG
Marcus Johansson0.7%, Michael McCarron7.3%, Matt Boldy100%
6.8 min/game · 2.27 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%
- VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 2 of last 3
MINL4vs VGK0.04 xG
Vladimir Tarasenko10%, Yakov Trenin22%, Danila Yurov32%
7.7 min/game · 2.44 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%
- VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
- vs Carter Hart .889 (63% to start)
- Hart .880 on other shots
- Together 1 of last 3

How it works

Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.