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NHL Stack Finder: Wednesday, Oct 21

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Wednesday, Oct 21 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: OTT PP1 (Batherson–Cozens–Stützle–Eklund–Yakemchuk) vs FLA.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1OTTPP1vs FLA0.73 xG

    Drake Batherson97%, Dylan Cozens90%, Tim Stützle99%, William Eklund79%, Carter Yakemchuk42%

    5.3 min/game · 8.76 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA shorthanded time +20%
    • FLA PK xGA/60 −7%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (70% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  2. #2BUFL1vs PHI0.54 xG

    Jack Quinn45%, Noah Ostlund25%, Zach Benson56%

    12.4 min/game · 3.49 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  3. #3BUFL2vs PHI0.47 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris39%, Josh Doan61%

    11.8 min/game · 3.20 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  4. #4FLAL2vs OTT0.45 xG

    Eetu Luostarinen12%, Anton Lundell46%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%

    7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −12%
    • vs Linus Ullmark .892 (74% to start)
    • Ullmark .815 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  5. #5FLAL1vs OTT0.45 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett84%, Matthew Tkachuk100%

    9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • OTT 5v5 xGA/60 −12%
    • vs Linus Ullmark .892 (74% to start)
    • Ullmark .815 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  6. #6FLAPP1vs OTT0.41 xG

    Aleksander Barkov97%, Seth Jones80%, Sam Reinhart99%, Matthew Tkachuk100%, Brady Tkachuk100%

    3.4 min/game · 7.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • OTT shorthanded time +12%
    • OTT PK xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Linus Ullmark .892 (74% to start)
    • Ullmark .815 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  7. #7BUFL3vs PHI0.38 xG

    Ryan McLeod26%, Peyton Krebs19%, Konsta Helenius40%

    8.2 min/game · 3.76 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  8. #8PHIPP1vs BUF0.35 xG

    Travis Konecny92%, Trevor Zegras86%, Jamie Drysdale55%, Tyson Foerster42%, Matvei Michkov86%

    4.1 min/game · 7.25 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • BUF shorthanded time −8%
    • BUF PK xGA/60 +7%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  9. #9BUFPP1vs PHI0.34 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Rasmus Dahlin100%, Jack Quinn45%, Josh Doan61%, Zach Benson56%

    2.4 min/game · 8.35 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI shorthanded time +7%
    • PHI PK xGA/60 +9%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  10. #10OTTL1vs FLA0.32 xG

    Claude Giroux30%, Michael Amadio3.3%, Shane Pinto37%

    7.8 min/game · 2.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −2%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (70% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1

By game

PHI @ BUF

  • BUFL1vs PHI0.54 xG

    Jack Quinn45%, Noah Ostlund25%, Zach Benson56%

    12.4 min/game · 3.49 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BUFL2vs PHI0.47 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Josh Norris39%, Josh Doan61%

    11.8 min/game · 3.20 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BUFL3vs PHI0.38 xG

    Ryan McLeod26%, Peyton Krebs19%, Konsta Helenius40%

    8.2 min/game · 3.76 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • PHIPP1vs BUF0.35 xG

    Travis Konecny92%, Trevor Zegras86%, Jamie Drysdale55%, Tyson Foerster42%, Matvei Michkov86%

    4.1 min/game · 7.25 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • BUF shorthanded time −8%
    • BUF PK xGA/60 +7%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • BUFPP1vs PHI0.34 xG

    Tage Thompson100%, Rasmus Dahlin100%, Jack Quinn45%, Josh Doan61%, Zach Benson56%

    2.4 min/game · 8.35 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • PHI shorthanded time +7%
    • PHI PK xGA/60 +9%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • BUFL4vs PHI0.12 xG

    Sam Carrick0.1%, Beck Malenstyn4.1%, Jiri Kulich26%

    5.8 min/game · 1.61 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • PHI 5v5 xGA/60 −8%
    • vs Joseph Woll .901 (55% to start)
    • Woll .883 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • PHIL1vs BUF0.04 xG

    Sean Couturier9.2%, Noel Acciari3.3%, Carl Grundstrom0.1%

    6.3 min/game · 1.91 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • PHIL2vs BUF0.04 xG

    Noah Cates18%, Tyson Foerster42%, Matvei Michkov86%

    7.9 min/game · 2.82 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • PHIL3vs BUF0.03 xG

    Christian Dvorak16%, Travis Konecny92%, Porter Martone90%

    6.6 min/game · 2.50 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  • PHIL4vs BUF0.02 xG

    Owen Tippett78%, Trevor Zegras86%, Alex Bump15%

    4.7 min/game · 1.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • BUF 5v5 xGA/60 +1%
    • vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen .905 (78% to start)
    • Luukkonen .867 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3

FLA @ OTT

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.