Who to start · 2025-26
Adin Hill vs Jacob Markstrom
In 2025-26, Adin Hill posted a .871 save percentage to Jacob Markstrom's .883.
Against our expected-goals model, Hill saved −14.7 goals and Markstrom −13.7.
This week Hill has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts) with 1 tough matchup; Markstrom has 1 left (about 0.8 expected starts) with 1 tough matchup. We project Markstrom for 1.1 ESPN points to Hill's 0.3.
Jacob Markstrom has the better number in 6 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Hill's biggest edges: Overtime losses 6, Goals against 76, Rebounds prevented /100 +5.74.
Markstrom's biggest edges: Wins 23, Saves 983, High-danger save % .793.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 W, 1.000 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adin Hill
-0.03
fantasy points per game
Jacob Markstrom
0.74
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jacob Markstrom has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hill | Markstrom |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.48 | 2.09 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.63 | -5.91 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 3.79 | 4.47 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.22 | 0.02 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hill vs Markstrom
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hill | Markstrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-02 | VGK 2–0 NJD | 25/25 SV | 22/24 SV |
| 2022-10-18 | VGK 2–3 CGY | 0/0 SV | 19/21 SV |
| 2021-12-07 | SJS 5–3 CGY | 40/43 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2021-11-09 | SJS 4–1 CGY | 37/38 SV | 22/24 SV |
| 2020-01-16 | ARI 1–3 VAN | 22/24 SV | 34/35 SV |
| 2019-01-10 | ARI 4–3 VAN | 0/0 SV | 18/22 SV |
| 2018-03-11 | ARI 1–0 VAN | 0/0 SV | 23/24 SV |
| 2018-03-07 | ARI 2–1 VAN | 0/0 SV | 32/34 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adin Hill
3games (1 left)
0.3proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to GLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN18% to start0.3 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to GSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Jacob Markstrom
3games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
About 0.8 expected starts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ CAROpp allows 5th-most FP to GLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ SJSOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to GSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Yaroslav Askarov (.884)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ ANA76% to start1.1 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adin Hill or Jacob Markstrom?
- In 2025-26, Adin Hill posted a .871 save percentage to Jacob Markstrom's .883. Against our expected-goals model, Hill saved −14.7 goals and Markstrom −13.7. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Adin Hill or Jacob Markstrom?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jacob Markstrom leads in 6 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hill and Markstrom done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Hill's team went 6–2.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →