Who to start · 2025-26
Adin Hill vs Samuel Ersson
In 2025-26, Adin Hill posted a .871 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870.
Against our expected-goals model, Hill saved −14.7 goals and Ersson −13.0.
This week Hill has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts) with 1 tough matchup; Ersson has 1 left (about 0.0 expected starts). We project Hill for 0.3 ESPN points to Ersson's 0.0.
Adin Hill has the better number in 6 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Hill's biggest edges: Shutouts 1, Goals against 76, Overtime losses 6.
Ersson's biggest edges: High-danger save % .792, Wins 14, Saves 647.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adin Hill
-0.03
fantasy points per game
Samuel Ersson
-0.11
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Adin Hill has the edge.
| Points per game from | Hill | Ersson |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.48 | 1.70 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.63 | -5.88 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 3.79 | 3.92 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Hill vs Ersson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Hill | Ersson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | VGK 1–2 PHI | 15/17 SV | 24/25 SV |
| 2023-11-18 | VGK 3–4 PHI | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-10-24 | VGK 3–2 PHI | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adin Hill
3games (1 left)
0.3proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to GLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN18% to start0.3 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to GSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Samuel Ersson
1games
0.0proj. ESPN pts
About 0.0 expected starts
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TOR2% to start0.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to GLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adin Hill or Samuel Ersson?
- In 2025-26, Adin Hill posted a .871 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870. Against our expected-goals model, Hill saved −14.7 goals and Ersson −13.0. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Adin Hill or Samuel Ersson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Adin Hill leads in 6 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Hill and Ersson done against each other?
- In 3 games against each other in our data, Hill's team went 1–2.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →