Who to start · 2025-26
Elvis Merzlikins vs Samuel Ersson
In 2025-26, Elvis Merzlikins posted a .883 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870.
Against our expected-goals model, Merzlikins saved −7.7 goals and Ersson −13.0.
This week Merzlikins has 1 game left (about 0.1 expected starts) with 1 tough matchup; Ersson has 1 left (about 0.2 expected starts) with 1 soft matchup. We project Ersson for 0.3 ESPN points to Merzlikins's 0.1.
Elvis Merzlikins has the better number in 6 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Merzlikins's biggest edges: High-danger save % .831, Shutouts 1, Save % .883.
Ersson's biggest edges: Rebounds prevented /100 +1.53, Overtime losses 5, Goals-against average 3.12.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Elvis Merzlikins
0.51
fantasy points per game
Samuel Ersson
-0.11
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Elvis Merzlikins has the edge.
| Points per game from | Merzlikins | Ersson |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Goals against (-2) | -6.33 | -5.88 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.78 | 3.92 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Merzlikins vs Ersson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Merzlikins | Ersson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | CBJ 3–2 PHI | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2026-03-14 | CBJ 2–1 PHI | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2026-01-28 | CBJ 5–3 PHI | 24/27 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2025-01-14 | CBJ 3–2 PHI | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-12-21 | CBJ 4–5 PHI | 25/30 SV | 21/25 SV |
| 2024-12-10 | CBJ 3–5 PHI | 20/25 SV | 15/18 SV |
| 2023-11-19 | CBJ 2–5 PHI | 0/0 SV | 20/22 SV |
| 2023-10-12 | CBJ 2–4 PHI | 33/35 SV | 0/0 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Elvis Merzlikins
2games (1 left)
0.1proj. ESPN pts
About 0.1 expected starts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to GLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA8% to start0.1 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Samuel Ersson
3games (1 left)
0.3proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 7th-most FP to GSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR21% to start0.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to GSchedule edge +12.2 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Elvis Merzlikins or Samuel Ersson?
- In 2025-26, Elvis Merzlikins posted a .883 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870. Against our expected-goals model, Merzlikins saved −7.7 goals and Ersson −13.0. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Elvis Merzlikins or Samuel Ersson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Elvis Merzlikins leads in 6 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Merzlikins and Ersson done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Merzlikins's team went 4–4.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →