Who to start · 2025-26
Samuel Ersson vs Stuart Skinner
In 2025-26, Samuel Ersson posted a .870 save percentage to Stuart Skinner's .888.
Against our expected-goals model, Ersson saved −13.0 goals and Skinner +5.4.
This week Ersson has 1 game left (about 0.0 expected starts); Skinner has 1 left (about 0.7 expected starts) with 1 soft matchup. We project Skinner for 0.8 ESPN points to Ersson's 0.0.
Stuart Skinner has the better number in 9 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Ersson's biggest edges: Rebounds prevented /100 +1.53, Goals against 97.
Skinner's biggest edges: Goals saved above expected +5.4, Shutouts 2, Saves 1,125.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 W, .867 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Samuel Ersson
-0.11
fantasy points per game
Stuart Skinner
0.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Stuart Skinner has the edge.
| Points per game from | Ersson | Skinner |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.70 | 1.84 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.88 | -5.68 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 3.92 | 4.50 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Ersson vs Skinner
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Ersson | Skinner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 · PO | PHI 1–0 PIT | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2026-04-27 · PO | PHI 2–3 PIT | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2026-04-25 · PO | PHI 2–4 PIT | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2026-04-22 · PO | PHI 5–2 PIT | 0/0 SV | 24/28 SV |
| 2026-04-20 · PO | PHI 3–0 PIT | 0/0 SV | 21/23 SV |
| 2026-04-18 · PO | PHI 3–2 PIT | 0/0 SV | 17/20 SV |
| 2026-03-07 | PHI 4–3 PIT | 0/0 SV | 13/16 SV |
| 2026-01-15 | PHI 3–6 PIT | 11/14 SV | 31/34 SV |
| 2025-11-12 | PHI 1–2 EDM | 0/0 SV | 20/21 SV |
| 2025-02-22 | PHI 6–3 EDM | 15/18 SV | 26/31 SV |
| 2024-10-15 | PHI 3–4 EDM | 27/31 SV | 27/30 SV |
| 2024-01-02 | PHI 2–5 EDM | 0/0 SV | 35/37 SV |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Samuel Ersson
1games
0.0proj. ESPN pts
About 0.0 expected starts
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TOR2% to start0.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to GLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Stuart Skinner
2games (1 left)
0.8proj. ESPN pts
About 0.7 expected starts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET71% to start0.8 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to GLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Samuel Ersson or Stuart Skinner?
- In 2025-26, Samuel Ersson posted a .870 save percentage to Stuart Skinner's .888. Against our expected-goals model, Ersson saved −13.0 goals and Skinner +5.4. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Samuel Ersson or Stuart Skinner?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Stuart Skinner leads in 9 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Ersson and Skinner done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Ersson's team went 7–7.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →