Who to start · 2025-26
Samuel Ersson vs Tristan Jarry
In 2025-26, Samuel Ersson posted a .870 save percentage to Tristan Jarry's .882.
Against our expected-goals model, Ersson saved −13.0 goals and Jarry −4.0.
This week Ersson has 1 game left (about 0.0 expected starts); Jarry has 1 left (about 0.9 expected starts) with 1 tough matchup. We project Jarry for 0.4 ESPN points to Ersson's 0.0.
Tristan Jarry has the better number in 6 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Ersson's biggest edges: Rebounds prevented /100 +1.53, Overtime losses 5, Goals-against average 3.12.
Jarry's biggest edges: Shutouts 2, High-danger save % .825, Goals saved above expected −4.0.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 W, .739 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Samuel Ersson
-0.11
fantasy points per game
Tristan Jarry
0.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tristan Jarry has the edge.
| Points per game from | Ersson | Jarry |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.70 | 2.18 |
| Goals against (-2) | -5.88 | -5.94 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 3.92 | 4.45 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Ersson vs Jarry
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Tristan Jarry shooting on Samuel Ersson
- Goals
- 0
- Shots on goal
- 1
- Expected goals
- 0.00
- Ersson SV%
- 1.000
1 unblocked attempts. Close to expected.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Ersson | Jarry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | PHI 1–5 PIT | 0/0 SV | 28/29 SV |
| 2025-10-28 | PHI 3–2 PIT | 24/26 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-12-23 | PHI 3–7 PIT | 9/14 SV | 24/27 SV |
| 2024-02-25 | PHI 6–7 PIT | 0/0 SV | 15/21 SV |
| 2024-01-08 | PHI 1–4 PIT | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-12-04 | PHI 2–1 PIT | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-12-02 | PHI 4–3 PIT | 29/32 SV | 30/33 SV |
| 2023-04-02 | PHI 2–4 PIT | 27/30 SV | 0/0 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Samuel Ersson
1games
0.0proj. ESPN pts
About 0.0 expected starts
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TOR2% to start0.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to GLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Tristan Jarry
3games (1 left)
0.4proj. ESPN pts
About 0.9 expected starts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to GLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to GLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA86% to start0.4 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Samuel Ersson or Tristan Jarry?
- In 2025-26, Samuel Ersson posted a .870 save percentage to Tristan Jarry's .882. Against our expected-goals model, Ersson saved −13.0 goals and Jarry −4.0. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Samuel Ersson or Tristan Jarry?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tristan Jarry leads in 6 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Ersson and Jarry done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Ersson's team went 3–5.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →