On-ice results

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders

2023-24Even strengthThrough 82 team games

Plain expected goals add up every shot in a scramble as if each one were a fresh chance, even though only one goal can come out of it. Sequence xG discounts each follow-up attempt by the chance the play was already over: a shot worth 0.30 after a 0.25 rebound counts as 0.30 × 0.75.

That takes about 5.5% out of the league total, but it moves individual players much more: skaters whose lines live on second and third whacks drop, and clean one-shot rush lines rise.

Leader in 2023-24: Zach Hyman (EDM), 63.9% sxGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

597 qualified

Show

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders, 2023-24, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	63.9%	1,254	4.01	2.26	64.3%	98%▼1.4
2	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	62.9%	1,282	4.00	2.35	63.2%	100%▲1.5
3	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	61.8%	1,515	3.73	2.31	62.1%	100%
4	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	61.4%	1,403	3.70	2.33	61.6%	77%▲9.7
5	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	60.7%	978	3.08	2.00	61.0%	97%▲7.2
6	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	60.5%	604	3.10	2.03	60.3%	54%▲37
7	Stefan NoesenFCAR	CAR	60.4%	823	2.90	1.90	60.1%	0.1%
8	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	60.2%	1,042	2.78	1.84	60.0%	4.1%▲3.4
9	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	60.1%	1,114	3.54	2.35	60.6%	77%▲15
10	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	60.1%	1,444	3.43	2.28	60.1%	100%▲0.8
11	Tommy NovakFNSH	NSH	59.4%	837	3.10	2.11	59.0%	11%▲9.1
12	Jesper FastFCAR	CAR	59.3%	823	2.57	1.77	59.5%	—
13	Conor GarlandFVAN	VAN	58.8%	1,025	2.91	2.04	58.7%	10%▲7.4
14	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	58.7%	1,115	2.81	1.98	59.0%	99%
15	Evan RodriguesFFLA	FLA	58.6%	1,035	2.73	1.93	59.0%	8.3%▲6.5
16	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	58.5%	884	2.75	1.96	58.8%	24%▲20
17	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	58.2%	670	2.53	1.82	58.7%	18%▲15
18	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	58.2%	1,031	2.91	2.09	58.4%	85%▲7.6
19	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	57.9%	1,012	2.52	1.83	58.6%	20%▲13
20	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	57.9%	1,169	2.84	2.06	58.3%	67%▼8.4
21	Adam LowryFWPG	WPG	57.7%	1,063	2.58	1.89	57.9%	5.7%▲5.5
22	Shane PintoFOTT	OTT	57.7%	614	2.81	2.06	57.7%	37%▲22
23	Dakota JoshuaFVAN	VAN	57.7%	749	2.80	2.05	57.8%	4.8%▲4.6
24	Jack DruryFCAR	CAR	57.6%	795	2.53	1.87	57.6%	5.6%▲5.4
25	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	57.5%	1,221	2.69	1.98	57.8%	100%▲0.5
26	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	57.5%	1,403	2.81	2.07	57.7%	42%▲18
27	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	57.5%	1,412	2.83	2.09	57.9%	100%▲4.5
28	Arthur KaliyevFLAK	LAK	57.5%	523	2.82	2.08	58.2%	—
29	Jordan EberleFSEA	SEA	57.5%	1,116	2.83	2.10	57.7%	30%▲2.6
30	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	57.4%	573	2.69	2.00	57.8%	92%▲1.7
31	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	57.3%	923	2.90	2.17	57.3%	70%▲23
32	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	57.1%	1,428	2.96	2.22	57.5%	15%▲3.8
33	Warren FoegeleFEDM	EDM	57.1%	1,018	3.19	2.39	57.3%	4.0%▲3.9
34	Nate SchmidtDWPG	WPG	57.1%	908	2.40	1.80	57.4%	4.9%▲4.5
35	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	57.0%	1,301	3.16	2.38	57.4%	99%
36	Artemi PanarinFNYR	NYR	57.0%	1,300	3.25	2.46	57.1%	98%▼1.2
37	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,057	2.48	1.87	57.3%	4.3%▲2.7
38	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,084	2.70	2.04	57.2%	95%▲1.5
39	Ryan McLeodFEDM	EDM	56.9%	998	2.94	2.23	57.1%	26%▲20
40	Jonathan DrouinFCOL	COL	56.8%	1,115	3.00	2.28	56.6%	0.5%
41	Derek ForbortDBOS	BOS	56.8%	505	2.66	2.02	57.4%	0.0%
42	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.8%	1,089	2.94	2.23	56.7%	93%▲7.9
43	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	56.8%	1,103	2.72	2.07	57.0%	100%▲0.8
44	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	56.8%	1,307	3.42	2.61	57.2%	100%
45	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	56.7%	1,071	3.13	2.38	57.0%	73%▲1
46	Ryan McDonaghDNSH	NSH	56.7%	1,291	2.92	2.23	57.1%	7.3%▲6.8
47	Jake GuentzelFPIT/CAR	PIT/CAR	56.7%	1,058	3.59	2.74	56.8%	100%
48	Pius SuterFVAN	VAN	56.6%	824	2.40	1.84	56.9%	4.1%▲3.3
49	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	56.5%	1,222	3.16	2.43	56.4%	100%▲2.2
50	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	56.5%	1,294	2.62	2.02	56.1%	35%▲21
51	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	56.5%	819	2.73	2.10	56.9%	50%▲34
52	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	56.4%	1,638	2.88	2.22	56.5%	99%▲3.3
53	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDFLA	FLA	56.4%	1,172	2.75	2.13	56.6%	43%▲32
54	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	56.4%	1,078	2.86	2.21	56.8%	100%
55	Trevor MooreFLAK	LAK	56.2%	1,145	2.80	2.18	56.4%	9.1%
56	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	56.2%	942	3.22	2.51	56.4%	83%▲4
57	Tyler BertuzziFTOR	TOR	56.2%	1,123	3.07	2.39	56.7%	62%▼3.2
58	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	56.2%	1,079	3.26	2.54	56.4%	100%▲2.7
59	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	56.2%	1,124	3.03	2.36	56.1%	99%▲0.9
60	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	56.1%	1,165	3.11	2.44	55.8%	96%▲11
61	Nino NiederreiterFWPG	WPG	56.0%	987	2.53	1.99	56.4%	4.0%▲3.8
62	Ondrej PalatFNJD	NJD	56.0%	940	2.87	2.26	55.9%	0.1%
63	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	56.0%	1,596	2.81	2.21	56.0%	100%
64	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	55.9%	601	2.46	1.94	56.2%	—
65	Calvin de HaanDTBL	TBL	55.9%	857	2.33	1.84	55.8%	—
66	Brett KulakDEDM	EDM	55.9%	1,174	2.65	2.09	56.3%	0.3%
67	Garnet HathawayFPHI	PHI	55.8%	876	2.23	1.77	56.4%	4.8%▲4.6
68	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	55.8%	884	2.82	2.23	56.2%	99%▲1.4
69	Vincent TrocheckFNYR	NYR	55.8%	1,284	3.09	2.45	56.1%	88%▼5.5
70	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	55.7%	1,254	3.00	2.38	55.3%	100%▲1.9
71	Craig SmithFDAL	DAL	55.7%	751	2.36	1.87	56.2%	—
72	Brent BurnsDCAR	CAR	55.7%	1,315	2.87	2.28	56.2%	50%▼14
73	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	55.7%	1,092	2.75	2.19	56.0%	4.9%▲4.5
74	Sonny MilanoFWSH	WSH	55.7%	561	2.51	2.00	55.9%	—
75	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	55.6%	1,349	3.25	2.60	55.6%	100%
76	James van RiemsdykFBOS	BOS	55.5%	769	2.80	2.24	55.9%	0.3%
77	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	55.5%	820	2.96	2.37	55.5%	60%
78	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	55.5%	1,271	3.10	2.48	55.5%	82%▲13
79	Mark GiordanoDTOR	TOR	55.5%	631	2.77	2.22	56.4%	—
80	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	55.4%	1,254	2.90	2.33	55.9%	98%▼0.8
81	Mikko RantanenFCOL	COL	55.4%	1,413	3.04	2.45	55.3%	99%▲0.7
82	Ilya MikheyevFVAN	VAN	55.4%	962	2.55	2.06	55.9%	8.4%▲6.8
83	Nils HoglanderFVAN	VAN	55.3%	914	2.37	1.91	55.7%	4.0%▲3.9
84	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	55.3%	988	2.38	1.93	55.1%	4.3%▲3
85	Thomas HarleyDDAL	DAL	55.3%	1,466	2.74	2.22	55.2%	88%▲8.9
86	John TavaresFTOR	TOR	55.3%	1,134	2.90	2.34	55.5%	96%▲9.3
87	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	55.3%	1,274	2.67	2.16	55.4%	99%▲6.5
88	Jesper BoqvistFBOS	BOS	55.2%	511	2.24	1.82	55.5%	0.1%
89	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	55.2%	1,354	2.73	2.22	54.9%	100%▲1
90	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	55.0%	1,521	2.74	2.24	55.0%	60%▼2.3
91	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	55.0%	1,089	2.42	1.99	55.1%	86%▲18
92	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	54.9%	1,347	2.71	2.22	55.3%	37%▼32
93	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	54.9%	1,052	2.87	2.36	55.2%	99%▲1.1
94	Ian ColeDVAN	VAN	54.8%	1,215	2.36	1.95	55.0%	4.9%▲4.3
95	Roman JosiDNSH	NSH	54.7%	1,597	2.96	2.45	54.6%	98%
96	Dmitry KulikovDFLA	FLA	54.7%	1,069	2.48	2.05	54.7%	3.2%▲3.1
97	Joel Eriksson EkFMIN	MIN	54.7%	1,040	2.76	2.28	54.8%	82%▲11
98	Mattias JanmarkFEDM	EDM	54.7%	708	2.41	2.00	54.8%	0.0%
99	Teddy BluegerFVAN	VAN	54.6%	837	2.59	2.15	54.9%	4.8%▲4.6
100	Jamie BennFDAL	DAL	54.6%	918	2.75	2.29	54.6%	22%▲18

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 327 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Read it like xGF%: 50% is even. Compare it with the plain xGF% column to see whose numbers are inflated by flurries.

How reliable is it?

Shares the stability of on-ice xGF%. The flurry discount itself is mechanical (no fitted parameters), so it adds no noise.

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