On-ice results

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders

2023-245-on-5Through 82 team games

Plain expected goals add up every shot in a scramble as if each one were a fresh chance, even though only one goal can come out of it. Sequence xG discounts each follow-up attempt by the chance the play was already over: a shot worth 0.30 after a 0.25 rebound counts as 0.30 × 0.75.

That takes about 5.5% out of the league total, but it moves individual players much more: skaters whose lines live on second and third whacks drop, and clean one-shot rush lines rise.

Leader in 2023-24: Connor McDavid (EDM), 64.1% sxGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

596 qualified

Show

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders, 2023-24, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team
1	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	64.1%	1,235	3.98	2.23	64.4%	100%▲1.5
2	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	63.8%	1,235	3.99	2.26	64.2%	98%▼1.4
3	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	63.2%	1,458	3.74	2.17	63.5%	100%
4	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	62.6%	1,366	3.71	2.22	62.9%	77%▲9.7
5	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	60.7%	1,083	3.52	2.28	61.2%	77%▲15
6	Stefan NoesenFCAR	CAR	60.4%	823	2.90	1.90	60.1%	0.1%
7	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	60.4%	930	3.03	1.99	60.7%	97%▲7.2
8	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	60.1%	1,041	2.77	1.84	60.0%	4.1%▲3.4
9	Tommy NovakFNSH	NSH	59.9%	818	3.06	2.05	59.5%	11%▲9.1
10	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.7%	1,388	3.36	2.26	59.7%	100%▲0.8
11	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.6%	589	3.06	2.07	59.4%	54%▲37
12	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	59.4%	853	2.73	1.86	59.8%	24%▲20
13	Jesper FastFCAR	CAR	59.3%	823	2.57	1.77	59.5%	—
14	Conor GarlandFVAN	VAN	58.7%	1,004	2.89	2.04	58.7%	10%▲7.4
15	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	58.6%	657	2.56	1.81	59.0%	18%▲15
16	Evan RodriguesFFLA	FLA	58.5%	1,010	2.69	1.90	58.9%	8.3%▲6.5
17	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	58.4%	1,364	2.81	2.00	58.9%	100%▲4.5
18	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	58.3%	1,063	2.75	1.97	58.6%	99%
19	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	58.2%	1,000	2.87	2.06	58.4%	85%▲7.6
20	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	58.2%	1,146	2.80	2.01	58.5%	67%▼8.4
21	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	58.1%	997	2.55	1.83	58.9%	20%▲13
22	Jake GuentzelFPIT/CAR	PIT/CAR	58.1%	1,026	3.60	2.60	58.4%	100%
23	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	57.9%	571	2.70	1.97	58.4%	92%▲1.7
24	Jonathan DrouinFCOL	COL	57.7%	1,095	2.97	2.17	57.8%	0.5%
25	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	57.6%	1,258	3.41	2.51	58.0%	100%
26	Jordan EberleFSEA	SEA	57.6%	1,086	2.78	2.05	57.8%	30%▲2.6
27	Warren FoegeleFEDM	EDM	57.6%	1,014	3.20	2.35	57.7%	4.0%▲3.9
28	Jack DruryFCAR	CAR	57.6%	792	2.54	1.87	57.6%	5.6%▲5.4
29	Dakota JoshuaFVAN	VAN	57.6%	746	2.77	2.05	57.7%	4.8%▲4.6
30	Ryan McLeodFEDM	EDM	57.5%	973	2.93	2.16	57.7%	26%▲20
31	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	57.5%	1,190	2.64	1.95	57.9%	100%▲0.5
32	Arthur KaliyevFLAK	LAK	57.5%	523	2.82	2.08	58.2%	—
33	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	57.4%	1,054	2.71	2.01	57.7%	95%▲1.5
34	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	57.3%	917	2.91	2.17	57.3%	70%▲23
35	Shane PintoFOTT	OTT	57.2%	588	2.74	2.05	57.2%	37%▲22
36	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	57.1%	1,384	2.96	2.22	57.5%	15%▲3.8
37	Ryan McDonaghDNSH	NSH	57.1%	1,257	2.95	2.22	57.4%	7.3%▲6.8
38	Adam LowryFWPG	WPG	57.0%	1,044	2.51	1.90	57.1%	5.7%▲5.5
39	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,057	2.48	1.87	57.3%	4.3%▲2.7
40	Trevor MooreFLAK	LAK	56.9%	1,116	2.84	2.15	57.1%	9.1%
41	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,279	2.64	2.00	56.6%	35%▲21
42	Derek ForbortDBOS	BOS	56.9%	500	2.66	2.02	57.4%	0.0%
43	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.9%	1,075	2.91	2.21	56.7%	93%▲7.9
44	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	56.9%	1,075	2.66	2.02	57.1%	100%▲0.8
45	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	56.8%	1,352	2.75	2.09	57.0%	42%▲18
46	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	56.8%	1,043	2.87	2.18	57.2%	100%
47	Artemi PanarinFNYR	NYR	56.7%	1,262	3.21	2.45	56.9%	98%▼1.2
48	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	56.6%	1,608	2.87	2.20	56.6%	99%▲3.3
49	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	56.6%	1,125	3.01	2.31	56.4%	96%▲11
50	Tyler BertuzziFTOR	TOR	56.5%	1,118	3.09	2.38	57.0%	62%▼3.2
51	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.5%	1,241	3.04	2.34	56.8%	99%
52	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	56.4%	1,185	3.14	2.43	56.2%	100%▲2.2
53	Nate SchmidtDWPG	WPG	56.4%	891	2.35	1.81	56.6%	4.9%▲4.5
54	Pius SuterFVAN	VAN	56.4%	807	2.39	1.85	56.6%	4.1%▲3.3
55	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	56.3%	1,037	3.07	2.38	56.6%	73%▲1
56	Brent BurnsDCAR	CAR	56.3%	1,278	2.87	2.23	56.7%	50%▼14
57	Mikko RantanenFCOL	COL	56.3%	1,370	3.07	2.38	56.3%	99%▲0.7
58	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	56.2%	1,058	2.77	2.16	56.5%	4.9%▲4.5
59	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	56.2%	787	2.72	2.12	56.7%	50%▲34
60	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	56.1%	596	2.48	1.94	56.4%	—
61	Ondrej PalatFNJD	NJD	56.1%	931	2.87	2.24	56.0%	0.1%
62	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	56.0%	1,077	2.94	2.31	56.1%	99%▲0.9
63	Nino NiederreiterFWPG	WPG	56.0%	982	2.53	1.99	56.4%	4.0%▲3.8
64	Calvin de HaanDTBL	TBL	56.0%	852	2.33	1.83	55.9%	—
65	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	56.0%	1,472	2.71	2.13	56.2%	60%▼2.3
66	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	55.9%	1,039	3.17	2.50	56.3%	100%▲2.7
67	Vincent TrocheckFNYR	NYR	55.9%	1,241	3.03	2.39	56.2%	88%▼5.5
68	Garnet HathawayFPHI	PHI	55.8%	875	2.24	1.77	56.4%	4.8%▲4.6
69	Brett KulakDEDM	EDM	55.8%	1,162	2.65	2.10	56.3%	0.3%
70	Craig SmithFDAL	DAL	55.7%	751	2.36	1.88	56.2%	—
71	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	55.7%	1,237	3.10	2.46	55.8%	82%▲13
72	Sonny MilanoFWSH	WSH	55.7%	557	2.49	1.98	55.9%	—
73	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	55.7%	848	2.70	2.15	56.0%	99%▲1.4
74	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	55.6%	1,311	3.21	2.56	55.7%	100%
75	Thomas HarleyDDAL	DAL	55.6%	1,424	2.67	2.13	55.6%	88%▲8.9
76	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	55.6%	1,542	2.69	2.15	55.8%	100%
77	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	55.6%	900	3.07	2.45	55.8%	83%▲4
78	John TavaresFTOR	TOR	55.5%	1,108	2.84	2.28	55.8%	96%▲9.3
79	Mark GiordanoDTOR	TOR	55.5%	630	2.78	2.23	56.4%	—
80	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	55.5%	1,221	2.95	2.37	55.1%	100%▲1.9
81	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	55.4%	797	2.93	2.36	55.3%	60%
82	James van RiemsdykFBOS	BOS	55.4%	769	2.78	2.24	55.7%	0.3%
83	Nils HoglanderFVAN	VAN	55.4%	912	2.37	1.91	55.7%	4.0%▲3.9
84	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDFLA	FLA	55.3%	1,132	2.61	2.10	55.5%	43%▲32
85	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	55.3%	1,308	2.71	2.19	55.3%	100%▲1
86	Ian ColeDVAN	VAN	55.3%	1,206	2.37	1.92	55.4%	4.9%▲4.3
87	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	55.3%	1,204	2.87	2.32	55.7%	98%▼0.8
88	Teddy BluegerFVAN	VAN	55.2%	831	2.59	2.10	55.5%	4.8%▲4.6
89	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	55.2%	1,327	2.71	2.20	55.6%	37%▼32
90	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	55.2%	1,236	2.63	2.14	55.4%	99%▲6.5
91	Ilya MikheyevFVAN	VAN	55.0%	946	2.50	2.04	55.5%	8.4%▲6.8
92	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	55.0%	1,074	2.42	1.97	55.2%	86%▲18
93	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	55.0%	980	2.36	1.93	54.8%	4.3%▲3
94	Joel Eriksson EkFMIN	MIN	55.0%	997	2.76	2.26	55.2%	82%▲11
95	Jesper BoqvistFBOS	BOS	54.9%	503	2.17	1.79	55.1%	0.1%
96	Tyson FoersterFPHI	PHI	54.9%	1,078	2.38	1.96	54.8%	42%▲38
97	Zach WhitecloudDVGK	VGK	54.7%	957	2.33	1.93	54.7%	7.3%▲6.7
98	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	54.7%	1,006	2.78	2.31	55.0%	99%▲1.1
99	Mattias JanmarkFEDM	EDM	54.7%	707	2.41	2.00	54.8%	0.0%
100	Dylan DeMeloDWPG	WPG	54.6%	1,519	2.70	2.24	54.5%	5.6%▲5.4

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 328 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Read it like xGF%: 50% is even. Compare it with the plain xGF% column to see whose numbers are inflated by flurries.

How reliable is it?

Shares the stability of on-ice xGF%. The flurry discount itself is mechanical (no fitted parameters), so it adds no noise.

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