On-ice results

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders

2024-25Even strengthThrough 82 team games

Plain expected goals add up every shot in a scramble as if each one were a fresh chance, even though only one goal can come out of it. Sequence xG discounts each follow-up attempt by the chance the play was already over: a shot worth 0.30 after a 0.25 rebound counts as 0.30 × 0.75.

That takes about 5.5% out of the league total, but it moves individual players much more: skaters whose lines live on second and third whacks drop, and clean one-shot rush lines rise.

Leader in 2024-25: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 62.2% sxGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

597 qualified

Show

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders, 2024-25, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	62.2%	1,224	3.73	2.27	62.5%	100%
2	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	60.9%	1,193	3.77	2.43	61.4%	100%▲1.5
3	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	60.8%	925	2.93	1.89	61.3%	68%▲21
4	Mathew BarzalFNYI	NYI	60.2%	497	3.15	2.09	60.3%	83%▲10
5	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	59.8%	1,196	3.32	2.24	60.3%	77%▲9.7
6	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.7%	1,394	3.48	2.35	59.8%	100%▲0.8
7	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	59.2%	1,099	3.43	2.36	59.9%	98%▼1.4
8	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	59.1%	1,173	3.01	2.09	59.4%	51%▲19
9	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	59.1%	1,009	3.07	2.13	59.6%	96%▲16
10	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	59.0%	983	2.62	1.82	59.2%	97%▲7.2
11	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	58.9%	1,574	3.35	2.34	59.2%	100%
12	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	58.8%	976	2.95	2.06	59.5%	95%▲1.5
13	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	58.4%	1,271	2.96	2.11	58.6%	100%▲1.9
14	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	58.3%	995	3.11	2.23	58.3%	100%
15	Alex LaferriereFLAK	LAK	58.2%	1,107	2.70	1.93	58.6%	68%▲3.5
16	Nate SchmidtDFLA	FLA	57.9%	1,152	2.46	1.79	58.2%	4.9%▲4.5
17	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	57.8%	1,502	3.12	2.28	57.8%	100%▲1
18	Josh DoanFUTA	UTA	57.7%	609	2.56	1.88	58.5%	61%▲44
19	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	57.6%	824	2.65	1.95	57.7%	—
20	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	57.6%	1,015	2.91	2.15	57.7%	100%▲2.2
21	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	57.5%	1,176	2.48	1.83	57.5%	99%
22	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	57.5%	1,115	3.14	2.32	57.4%	54%▲37
23	Mark JankowskiFNSH/CAR	NSH/CAR	57.5%	625	2.55	1.89	57.8%	0.2%
24	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	57.3%	1,113	3.21	2.40	57.8%	99%▲0.9
25	Warren FoegeleFLAK	LAK	57.2%	1,113	2.48	1.85	57.9%	4.0%▲3.9
26	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.2%	1,075	3.15	2.36	57.2%	93%▲20
27	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	57.2%	1,211	2.69	2.02	57.4%	67%▼8.4
28	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	57.1%	1,127	2.59	1.94	57.6%	4.9%▲4.5
29	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	56.9%	965	2.89	2.19	57.2%	93%▲9
30	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	56.9%	719	2.29	1.74	56.8%	12%▲12
31	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	56.9%	738	3.01	2.28	57.4%	100%▲2.7
32	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	56.8%	1,011	2.61	1.98	56.9%	64%▲55
33	Joel KivirantaFCOL	COL	56.7%	859	2.24	1.71	56.9%	0.1%
34	Uvis BalinskisDFLA	FLA	56.6%	1,015	2.33	1.79	56.7%	4.0%▲3.9
35	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	56.5%	1,188	2.90	2.23	56.7%	73%▲1
36	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.5%	881	2.70	2.08	56.6%	93%▲7.9
37	Jordan SpenceDLAK	LAK	56.5%	1,168	2.38	1.83	56.9%	21%▲17
38	Jesperi KotkaniemiFCAR	CAR	56.5%	973	2.72	2.09	56.5%	3.2%▲3.1
39	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.4%	991	3.12	2.42	56.2%	99%
40	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	56.3%	1,295	3.29	2.55	55.9%	100%
41	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	56.2%	1,057	3.00	2.33	56.5%	11%▲11
42	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	56.1%	1,177	2.58	2.02	56.7%	86%▲18
43	Alex TurcotteFLAK	LAK	56.0%	738	2.34	1.84	56.3%	8.8%▲8.8
44	Kaedan KorczakDVGK	VGK	56.0%	590	2.39	1.88	56.4%	6.7%▲6.5
45	Tomas NosekFFLA	FLA	56.0%	510	2.38	1.88	56.3%	—
46	Chris TanevDTOR	TOR	55.9%	1,253	2.34	1.85	56.2%	6.0%▲5
47	Sean MonahanFCBJ	CBJ	55.9%	773	2.98	2.35	55.8%	19%▲13
48	Martin NecasFCAR/COL	CAR/COL	55.9%	1,154	3.03	2.39	55.6%	100%▲1.3
49	Pierre-Luc DuboisFWSH	WSH	55.8%	1,190	2.89	2.29	56.1%	41%▲32
50	Nico HischierFNJD	NJD	55.8%	1,103	2.77	2.19	56.1%	98%▲3
51	Eric RobinsonFCAR	CAR	55.8%	936	2.78	2.20	55.8%	3.2%▲3.1
52	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	55.7%	1,446	2.53	2.01	55.7%	23%▲20
53	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	55.7%	1,120	2.91	2.31	55.8%	96%▲11
54	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	55.5%	1,254	2.74	2.19	55.8%	60%▼11
55	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	55.5%	753	2.49	2.00	55.8%	8.1%▲7.8
56	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	55.5%	1,336	2.61	2.09	55.4%	35%▲21
57	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	55.5%	1,139	2.62	2.11	55.4%	92%▲1.7
58	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	55.5%	1,196	2.70	2.17	55.4%	79%▲2.9
59	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	55.4%	1,228	2.86	2.30	55.4%	99%▲1.1
60	Morgan BarronFWPG	WPG	55.4%	670	2.08	1.68	55.7%	4.8%▲4.7
61	Jonas SiegenthalerDNJD	NJD	55.4%	944	2.18	1.75	55.8%	3.3%▲2.9
62	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	55.4%	1,553	2.64	2.12	55.7%	42%▲18
63	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	55.4%	1,542	2.78	2.24	55.4%	60%▼2.3
64	Emil AndraeDPHI	PHI	55.3%	653	2.48	2.00	55.3%	8.8%▲8.6
65	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	55.3%	724	2.50	2.02	55.5%	24%▲20
66	Mikey AndersonDLAK	LAK	55.2%	1,465	2.21	1.80	55.5%	7.3%▲6.9
67	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	55.1%	1,008	2.61	2.12	54.9%	4.3%▲2.7
68	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	55.1%	1,173	2.94	2.40	55.0%	99%▲1.4
69	Vladislav GavrikovDLAK	LAK	55.0%	1,578	2.31	1.89	55.5%	41%▼5.7
70	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	55.0%	1,121	2.51	2.05	55.5%	95%▲9.2
71	Vladislav NamestnikovFWPG	WPG	55.0%	1,008	2.47	2.02	55.2%	0.1%
72	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	55.0%	1,075	2.88	2.36	55.1%	67%▲26
73	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	54.9%	814	2.20	1.81	55.4%	4.3%▲3
74	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	54.9%	1,330	2.62	2.15	54.8%	4.1%▲3.4
75	Matthew KniesFTOR	TOR	54.9%	1,100	2.81	2.31	55.1%	94%▲14
76	Adam PelechDNYI	NYI	54.8%	1,123	2.39	1.97	54.7%	3.2%▲3
77	Zachary BolducFSTL	STL	54.8%	815	2.20	1.82	55.5%	21%▲19
78	Logan O'ConnorFCOL	COL	54.8%	949	2.14	1.77	54.7%	0.2%
79	Brandt ClarkeDLAK	LAK	54.8%	1,112	2.61	2.15	55.2%	96%▲11
80	Dylan SambergDWPG	WPG	54.7%	1,096	2.55	2.10	54.8%	4.0%▲3.9
81	Timo MeierFNJD	NJD	54.7%	1,231	2.70	2.23	55.2%	82%▼8
82	A.J. GreerFFLA	FLA	54.7%	728	2.27	1.88	55.0%	7.5%▲5.8
83	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	54.7%	751	2.56	2.12	54.8%	98%▼0.8
84	Artem ZubDOTT	OTT	54.7%	973	2.28	1.89	54.8%	10%▲6.1
85	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	54.7%	1,197	2.49	2.06	54.5%	34%▼15
86	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	54.7%	1,233	2.97	2.46	54.3%	100%
87	Darnell NurseDEDM	EDM	54.6%	1,458	2.69	2.23	54.7%	70%▼12
88	Cole PerfettiFWPG	WPG	54.6%	1,083	2.39	1.99	54.7%	36%▲32
89	Zach WhitecloudDVGK	VGK	54.6%	1,207	2.47	2.05	54.6%	7.3%▲6.7
90	Niko MikkolaDFLA	FLA	54.6%	1,364	2.45	2.04	54.7%	4.9%▲4.4
91	Jacob MoverareDLAK	LAK	54.6%	568	2.32	1.93	54.8%	0.0%
92	Jayden StrubleDMTL	MTL	54.6%	805	2.50	2.09	54.5%	3.3%▲2.9
93	Viktor ArvidssonFEDM	EDM	54.5%	895	2.83	2.36	55.0%	32%▲23
94	Pavel BuchnevichFSTL	STL	54.5%	1,124	2.92	2.44	54.4%	36%▲7.7
95	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	54.5%	1,443	2.59	2.17	54.5%	100%
96	Cody GlassFPIT/NJD	PIT/NJD	54.5%	759	2.19	1.83	54.5%	4.9%▲4.5
97	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	54.4%	997	2.69	2.25	54.1%	83%▲2.9
98	Mikko RantanenFCOL/DAL/CAR	COL/DAL/CAR	54.3%	1,338	3.05	2.56	54.3%	99%▲0.7
99	Owen TippettFPHI	PHI	54.3%	1,042	2.40	2.02	54.1%	78%▼6.7
100	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	54.3%	1,607	2.59	2.18	54.3%	99%▲3.3

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 323 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Read it like xGF%: 50% is even. Compare it with the plain xGF% column to see whose numbers are inflated by flurries.

How reliable is it?

Shares the stability of on-ice xGF%. The flurry discount itself is mechanical (no fitted parameters), so it adds no noise.

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