On-ice results

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders

2025-26All situationsThrough 82 team games

Plain expected goals add up every shot in a scramble as if each one were a fresh chance, even though only one goal can come out of it. Sequence xG discounts each follow-up attempt by the chance the play was already over: a shot worth 0.30 after a 0.25 rebound counts as 0.30 × 0.75.

That takes about 5.5% out of the league total, but it moves individual players much more: skaters whose lines live on second and third whacks drop, and clean one-shot rush lines rise.

Leader in 2025-26: Brady Tkachuk (OTT), 68.0% sxGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

619 qualified

Show

Sequence xG (sxGF%) Leaders, 2025-26, All situations
#	Player	Team
1	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	68.0%	1,018	4.80	2.25	67.7%	96th	71st	100%▲2
2	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	66.1%	1,781	4.96	2.55	66.6%	99th	96th	100%▲0.9
3	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	65.8%	1,545	5.13	2.67	66.1%	93rd	87th	100%
4	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	65.7%	1,153	4.58	2.40	66.0%	96th	93rd	93%▲9.6
5	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	65.6%	1,661	4.49	2.35	66.0%	84th	87th	100%
6	Gabriel LandeskogFCOL	COL	65.4%	985	4.47	2.37	66.0%	99th	69th	50%▲32
7	Dylan CozensFOTT	OTT	65.3%	1,397	3.96	2.10	65.0%	94th	52nd	90%▲3.9
8	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	65.3%	1,159	5.10	2.71	65.5%	89th	90th	98%▼1.8
9	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	65.2%	919	4.15	2.21	65.9%	86th	90th	84%▲7.1
10	Denver BarkeyFPHI	PHI	64.6%	577	3.36	1.84	65.0%	84th	55th	15%▲14
11	Oliver BjorkstrandFTBL	TBL	64.1%	1,091	3.45	1.93	64.5%	85th	13th	20%
12	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	64.1%	1,058	4.07	2.28	64.3%	95th	34th	96%▲16
13	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	63.9%	1,444	4.00	2.26	64.2%	91st	53rd	92%▲1.8
14	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	63.9%	1,402	4.67	2.64	63.9%	81st	90th	100%
15	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	63.8%	1,397	4.25	2.41	64.0%	90th	44th	84%▲3.2
16	Martin NecasFCOL	COL	63.8%	1,677	4.45	2.53	64.3%	99th	95th	100%▲1.8
17	Josh NorrisFBUF	BUF	63.7%	697	4.41	2.51	63.9%	75th	78th	39%▲32
18	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	63.7%	1,885	4.85	2.76	63.5%	87th	98th	100%▲1.5
19	Mats ZuccarelloFMIN	MIN	63.4%	1,100	4.12	2.38	64.3%	81st	79th	51%▲29
20	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	63.4%	998	3.52	2.03	63.7%	88th	69th	11%▲11
21	Drake BathersonFOTT	OTT	63.3%	1,371	3.91	2.27	63.1%	96th	53rd	97%▲7.2
22	Jordan SpenceDOTT	OTT	63.0%	1,367	3.39	1.99	62.9%	91st	30th	21%▲17
23	Alex DeBrincatFDET	DET	63.0%	1,517	4.55	2.68	63.1%	38th	82nd	100%▲2.5
24	Mikko RantanenFDAL	DAL	63.0%	1,291	4.28	2.52	63.3%	83rd	90th	99%▲0.5
25	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	62.9%	1,361	3.98	2.35	63.3%	94th	73rd	93%▲7.5
26	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	62.8%	1,727	4.18	2.47	63.6%	71st	82nd	98%▼0.9
27	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	62.4%	1,565	4.04	2.44	62.3%	88th	87th	100%▲2.1
28	Darren RaddyshDTBL	TBL	62.2%	1,657	4.15	2.52	62.3%	91st	88th	99%▲3.2
29	Victor OlofssonFCOL/CGY	COL/CGY	61.9%	1,058	3.30	2.03	62.3%	91st	39th	14%▲14
30	Brayden PointFTBL	TBL	61.8%	1,150	4.00	2.47	62.2%	92nd	79th	95%▲7.5
31	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	61.7%	1,342	4.38	2.72	62.0%	94th	98th	97%▲8.8
32	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	61.7%	1,569	4.39	2.73	61.7%	97th	97th	99%▲1.4
33	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	61.7%	1,617	3.94	2.45	61.6%	94th	78th	99%▲1.3
34	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	61.6%	1,251	3.71	2.31	62.0%	97th	39th	67%▲42
35	Evgeni MalkinFPIT	PIT	61.6%	985	4.37	2.73	61.0%	68th	63rd	82%▲11
36	Cole CaufieldFMTL	MTL	61.5%	1,473	4.29	2.68	62.0%	68th	99th	100%▲1.2
37	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	61.5%	1,133	3.40	2.13	62.2%	67th	64th	80%▲3.7
38	Patrick KaneFDET	DET	61.2%	1,186	4.31	2.74	61.3%	44th	84th	80%▲0.9
39	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	61.1%	1,650	4.34	2.77	61.1%	84th	91st	100%▲0.9
40	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	61.1%	1,336	3.96	2.53	61.4%	97th	39th	69%▲21
41	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	60.8%	1,300	4.31	2.78	61.1%	52nd	75th	100%
42	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	60.7%	1,539	4.40	2.85	60.9%	52nd	82nd	97%▲11
43	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	60.7%	1,864	4.09	2.65	60.9%	99th	95th	100%▲1
44	Nick SuzukiFMTL	MTL	60.7%	1,707	4.25	2.76	61.2%	65th	99th	100%▲0.5
45	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	60.6%	1,340	4.41	2.86	60.5%	92nd	99th	95%▲1.4
46	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	60.6%	2,024	4.45	2.89	60.5%	86th	96th	100%
47	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	60.4%	1,640	4.23	2.78	60.5%	91st	70th	100%
48	Trevor ZegrasFPHI	PHI	60.3%	1,516	3.78	2.49	60.5%	80th	77th	86%▲18
49	Lucas RaymondFDET	DET	60.3%	1,504	4.11	2.71	60.6%	34th	96th	96%▲10
50	Quinn HughesDMIN/VAN	MIN/VAN	60.1%	2,053	4.04	2.68	60.6%	41st	78th	100%
51	Ivan DemidovFMTL	MTL	60.1%	1,271	4.13	2.74	60.5%	49th	55th	91%▲22
52	Josh DoanFBUF	BUF	60.1%	1,301	3.85	2.56	60.1%	66th	65th	61%▲44
53	Brock NelsonFCOL	COL	59.9%	1,592	3.99	2.67	60.4%	99th	79th	88%▼3.6
54	Andrei KuzmenkoFLAK	LAK	59.9%	776	3.46	2.32	60.1%	78th	36th	11%▲9.8
55	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	59.8%	1,114	3.39	2.28	60.0%	66th	34th	—
56	Troy TerryFANA	ANA	59.7%	1,119	4.18	2.82	59.8%	75th	72nd	47%▲34
57	Lane HutsonDMTL	MTL	59.7%	1,949	3.83	2.58	60.0%	50th	56th	99%▲3.1
58	Taylor HallFCAR	CAR	59.7%	1,162	3.63	2.45	59.7%	98th	23rd	28%▲20
59	Alex OvechkinFWSH	WSH	59.6%	1,431	4.20	2.85	60.0%	50th	48th	96%▲1.2
60	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	59.5%	567	4.52	3.07	59.6%	70th	77th	100%▲2.6
61	Jared McCannFSEA	SEA	59.5%	855	3.98	2.70	59.7%	14th	77th	72%▲1.9
62	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	59.5%	914	3.18	2.16	60.0%	99th	47th	8.1%▲7.8
63	Danton HeinenFCBJ/PIT	CBJ/PIT	59.4%	522	2.56	1.75	59.4%	57th	28th	0.0%
64	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	59.4%	1,549	4.39	3.00	59.4%	93rd	99th	99%▲1.2
65	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	59.3%	1,071	3.56	2.45	59.8%	77th	59th	67%▼8.3
66	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.2%	1,294	3.76	2.59	59.4%	99th	94th	57%▲40
67	Dylan GuentherFUTA	UTA	59.2%	1,374	3.97	2.74	59.0%	87th	72nd	99%▲1.7
68	Bobby BrinkFPHI/MIN	PHI/MIN	59.2%	1,031	2.99	2.07	59.4%	81st	51st	14%▲12
69	Michael CarconeFUTA	UTA	59.2%	1,005	3.10	2.14	59.3%	82nd	31st	5.0%▲4
70	Juraj SlafkovskýFMTL	MTL	59.1%	1,520	4.31	2.98	59.7%	63rd	96th	100%▲1.5
71	Sam MalinskiDCOL	COL	59.1%	1,445	3.05	2.11	59.3%	98th	47th	55%▲32
72	Gage GoncalvesFTBL	TBL	59.0%	969	2.81	1.95	59.6%	89th	45th	11%▲11
73	Zach BensonFBUF	BUF	58.9%	1,033	3.47	2.42	58.8%	59th	54th	56%▲44
74	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	58.8%	1,403	4.51	3.16	59.3%	92nd	86th	99%▲1.4
75	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	58.8%	1,300	3.74	2.63	58.7%	30th	71st	99%▲6.8
76	Matvei MichkovFPHI	PHI	58.7%	1,202	3.32	2.34	59.5%	82nd	38th	86%▲23
77	Owen TippettFPHI	PHI	58.7%	1,364	3.50	2.47	58.9%	83rd	72nd	78%▼7
78	Tyson FoersterFPHI	PHI	58.4%	502	3.08	2.19	59.0%	83rd	88th	42%▲38
79	Leo CarlssonFANA	ANA	58.4%	1,341	4.26	3.04	58.6%	75th	80th	94%▲11
80	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	58.3%	1,332	2.97	2.12	59.1%	82nd	60th	18%▲15
81	Damon SeversonDCBJ	CBJ	58.3%	1,496	3.13	2.24	58.3%	72nd	72nd	9.4%▲6.2
82	Tim StützleFOTT	OTT	58.2%	1,621	3.94	2.83	58.0%	96th	62nd	99%▲0.8
83	Kirill MarchenkoFCBJ	CBJ	58.2%	1,440	3.80	2.73	58.7%	75th	80th	98%▲7.4
84	Fabian ZetterlundFOTT	OTT	58.2%	1,059	3.03	2.18	58.3%	91st	28th	13%▲6.6
85	William CarrierFCAR	CAR	58.1%	753	2.48	1.79	58.1%	95th	34th	0.1%
86	Jason ZuckerFBUF	BUF	58.1%	969	3.90	2.81	58.3%	66th	54th	23%▲17
87	Ethen FrankFWSH	WSH	58.1%	759	2.94	2.12	58.4%	54th	20th	3.2%▲3.1
88	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	58.0%	1,346	3.61	2.61	57.7%	32nd	92nd	70%▲23
89	Mason MarchmentFCBJ/SEA	CBJ/SEA	57.9%	1,181	3.31	2.41	58.2%	43rd	67th	47%▲34
90	Mathew BarzalFNYI	NYI	57.8%	1,674	3.93	2.87	57.7%	30th	89th	84%▲11
91	Ryan HartmanFMIN	MIN	57.7%	1,273	3.37	2.47	57.8%	69th	68th	40%▼17
92	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	57.6%	1,077	3.51	2.58	57.9%	70th	60th	95%▲9.4
93	Jamie DrysdaleDPHI	PHI	57.6%	1,681	3.16	2.32	57.9%	80th	54th	55%▲46
94	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	57.6%	1,563	3.98	2.93	58.1%	72nd	98th	100%
95	Tage ThompsonFBUF	BUF	57.6%	1,559	3.92	2.88	57.6%	69th	83rd	100%▲1.3
96	Moritz SeiderDDET	DET	57.6%	2,105	3.66	2.70	57.5%	33rd	85th	100%▲0.6
97	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	57.5%	1,276	3.67	2.71	58.2%	99th	72nd	60%
98	Zachary BolducFMTL	MTL	57.5%	1,063	3.05	2.25	57.6%	49th	45th	21%▲19
99	Viktor ArvidssonFBOS	BOS	57.5%	1,007	3.54	2.61	57.5%	38th	74th	33%▲23
100	Mavrik BourqueFDAL	DAL	57.5%	1,270	3.01	2.22	58.1%	83rd	64th	34%▲30

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 321 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Read it like xGF%: 50% is even. Compare it with the plain xGF% column to see whose numbers are inflated by flurries.

How reliable is it?

Shares the stability of on-ice xGF%. The flurry discount itself is mechanical (no fitted parameters), so it adds no noise.

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