Who to start · 2025-26
Mackenzie Blackwood vs Samuel Ersson
In 2025-26, Mackenzie Blackwood posted a .903 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870.
Against our expected-goals model, Blackwood saved +5.5 goals and Ersson −13.0.
This week Blackwood has 1 game left (about 0.2 expected starts); Ersson has 1 left (about 0.1 expected starts). We project Blackwood for 0.3 ESPN points to Ersson's 0.1.
Mackenzie Blackwood has the better number in 9 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Blackwood's biggest edges: Save % .903, Goals-against average 2.50, Shutouts 3.
Ersson's biggest edges: Rebounds prevented /100 +1.53, Overtime losses 5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 W, .871 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mackenzie Blackwood
2.35
fantasy points per game
Samuel Ersson
-0.11
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mackenzie Blackwood has the edge.
| Points per game from | Blackwood | Ersson |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 2.36 | 1.70 |
| Goals against (-2) | -4.62 | -5.88 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.32 | 3.92 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Blackwood vs Ersson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Blackwood | Ersson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3–7 PHI | 13/19 SV | 32/35 SV |
| 2025-12-07 | COL 3–2 PHI | 23/25 SV | 25/28 SV |
| 2025-02-02 | COL 2–0 PHI | 24/24 SV | 30/32 SV |
| 2024-11-11 | SJS 3–4 PHI | 0/0 SV | 28/31 SV |
| 2023-11-07 | SJS 2–1 PHI | 38/39 SV | 17/19 SV |
| 2022-10-13 | NJD 2–5 PHI | 20/24 SV | 0/0 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mackenzie Blackwood
2games (1 left)
0.3proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 16th-most FP to GLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL20% to start0.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to GSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Samuel Ersson
1games
0.1proj. ESPN pts
About 0.1 expected starts
- Sat, Oct 3 @ TOR9% to start0.1 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to GLikely vs Sergei Bobrovsky (.877)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mackenzie Blackwood or Samuel Ersson?
- In 2025-26, Mackenzie Blackwood posted a .903 save percentage to Samuel Ersson's .870. Against our expected-goals model, Blackwood saved +5.5 goals and Ersson −13.0. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Mackenzie Blackwood or Samuel Ersson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mackenzie Blackwood leads in 9 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Blackwood and Ersson done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Blackwood's team went 3–3.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →