On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2023-24Even strengthThrough 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2023-24: Zach Hyman (EDM), 64.3% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

597 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2023-24, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	64.3%	1,254	4.27	2.37	59.1%	98%▼1.4
2	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	63.2%	1,282	4.24	2.47	59.1%	100%▲1.5
3	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	62.1%	1,515	3.96	2.42	59.6%	100%
4	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	61.6%	1,403	3.93	2.44	59.6%	77%▲9.7
5	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	61.0%	978	3.26	2.08	58.0%	97%▲7.2
6	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	60.6%	1,114	3.78	2.46	57.1%	77%▲15
7	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	60.3%	604	3.23	2.13	56.8%	54%▲37
8	Stefan NoesenFCAR	CAR	60.1%	823	3.05	2.03	60.7%	0.1%
9	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	60.1%	1,444	3.58	2.38	56.4%	100%▲0.8
10	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	60.0%	1,042	2.91	1.94	61.0%	4.1%▲3.4
11	Jesper FastFCAR	CAR	59.5%	823	2.69	1.83	63.5%	—
12	Evan RodriguesFFLA	FLA	59.0%	1,035	2.90	2.01	58.2%	8.3%▲6.5
13	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	59.0%	1,115	2.96	2.06	57.5%	99%
14	Tommy NovakFNSH	NSH	59.0%	837	3.23	2.25	55.9%	11%▲9.1
15	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	58.8%	884	2.92	2.05	51.0%	24%▲20
16	Conor GarlandFVAN	VAN	58.7%	1,025	3.07	2.15	55.8%	10%▲7.4
17	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	58.7%	670	2.68	1.89	54.4%	18%▲15
18	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	58.6%	1,012	2.67	1.88	63.1%	20%▲13
19	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	58.4%	1,031	3.08	2.19	56.4%	85%▲7.6
20	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	58.3%	1,169	2.99	2.14	55.8%	67%▼8.4
21	Arthur KaliyevFLAK	LAK	58.2%	523	3.01	2.16	57.7%	—
22	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	57.9%	1,412	2.99	2.17	56.6%	100%▲4.5
23	Adam LowryFWPG	WPG	57.9%	1,063	2.73	1.98	52.7%	5.7%▲5.5
24	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	57.8%	1,221	2.84	2.07	56.1%	100%▲0.5
25	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	57.8%	573	2.86	2.08	51.2%	92%▲1.7
26	Dakota JoshuaFVAN	VAN	57.8%	749	2.94	2.15	51.3%	4.8%▲4.6
27	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	57.7%	1,403	2.95	2.16	58.6%	42%▲18
28	Shane PintoFOTT	OTT	57.7%	614	2.94	2.16	53.9%	37%▲22
29	Jordan EberleFSEA	SEA	57.7%	1,116	2.97	2.18	54.2%	30%▲2.6
30	Jack DruryFCAR	CAR	57.6%	795	2.66	1.96	60.9%	5.6%▲5.4
31	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	57.5%	1,428	3.11	2.30	60.4%	15%▲3.8
32	Derek ForbortDBOS	BOS	57.5%	505	2.83	2.10	45.4%	0.0%
33	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	57.4%	1,301	3.36	2.49	54.6%	99%
34	Nate SchmidtDWPG	WPG	57.4%	908	2.56	1.90	52.7%	4.9%▲4.5
35	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	57.3%	1,057	2.61	1.94	61.8%	4.3%▲2.7
36	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	57.3%	923	3.04	2.27	54.8%	70%▲23
37	Warren FoegeleFEDM	EDM	57.3%	1,018	3.38	2.52	56.4%	4.0%▲3.9
38	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	57.2%	1,307	3.63	2.72	55.2%	100%
39	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	57.2%	1,084	2.82	2.11	58.4%	95%▲1.5
40	Artemi PanarinFNYR	NYR	57.1%	1,300	3.45	2.59	56.6%	98%▼1.2
41	Ryan McDonaghDNSH	NSH	57.1%	1,291	3.08	2.32	53.1%	7.3%▲6.8
42	Ryan McLeodFEDM	EDM	57.1%	998	3.11	2.34	56.5%	26%▲20
43	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	57.0%	1,103	2.86	2.16	54.7%	100%▲0.8
44	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	57.0%	1,071	3.31	2.50	57.7%	73%▲1
45	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	56.9%	819	2.88	2.18	58.1%	50%▲34
46	Pius SuterFVAN	VAN	56.9%	824	2.55	1.93	54.1%	4.1%▲3.3
47	Jake GuentzelFPIT/CAR	PIT/CAR	56.8%	1,058	3.80	2.89	56.5%	100%
48	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.8%	1,089	3.07	2.34	54.9%	93%▲7.9
49	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	56.8%	1,078	3.00	2.28	53.8%	100%
50	Tyler BertuzziFTOR	TOR	56.7%	1,123	3.28	2.51	53.4%	62%▼3.2
51	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDFLA	FLA	56.6%	1,172	2.92	2.24	56.6%	43%▲32
52	Jonathan DrouinFCOL	COL	56.6%	1,115	3.14	2.41	54.7%	0.5%
53	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	56.4%	1,638	3.01	2.32	52.8%	99%▲3.3
54	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	56.4%	1,079	3.44	2.65	57.8%	100%▲2.7
55	Nino NiederreiterFWPG	WPG	56.4%	987	2.68	2.07	53.1%	4.0%▲3.8
56	Trevor MooreFLAK	LAK	56.4%	1,145	2.95	2.28	55.7%	9.1%
57	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	56.4%	942	3.40	2.62	57.7%	83%▲4
58	Garnet HathawayFPHI	PHI	56.4%	876	2.37	1.83	50.5%	4.8%▲4.6
59	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	56.4%	1,222	3.29	2.54	56.0%	100%▲2.2
60	Mark GiordanoDTOR	TOR	56.4%	631	3.00	2.32	54.5%	—
61	Brett KulakDEDM	EDM	56.3%	1,174	2.82	2.19	53.2%	0.3%
62	Craig SmithFDAL	DAL	56.2%	751	2.52	1.96	55.9%	—
63	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	56.2%	601	2.59	2.02	51.0%	—
64	Brent BurnsDCAR	CAR	56.2%	1,315	3.03	2.36	60.1%	50%▼14
65	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	56.2%	884	2.97	2.32	50.3%	99%▲1.4
66	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	56.1%	1,124	3.19	2.49	57.0%	99%▲0.9
67	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	56.1%	1,294	2.74	2.14	59.6%	35%▲21
68	Vincent TrocheckFNYR	NYR	56.1%	1,284	3.28	2.57	53.6%	88%▼5.5
69	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	56.0%	1,596	2.95	2.32	57.3%	100%
70	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	56.0%	1,092	2.90	2.28	55.5%	4.9%▲4.5
71	Ondrej PalatFNJD	NJD	55.9%	940	3.01	2.38	54.8%	0.1%
72	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	55.9%	1,254	3.06	2.41	52.5%	98%▼0.8
73	James van RiemsdykFBOS	BOS	55.9%	769	3.01	2.37	48.8%	0.3%
74	Sonny MilanoFWSH	WSH	55.9%	561	2.67	2.11	48.0%	—
75	Ilya MikheyevFVAN	VAN	55.9%	962	2.70	2.14	52.9%	8.4%▲6.8
76	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	55.8%	1,165	3.24	2.56	56.7%	96%▲11
77	Calvin de HaanDTBL	TBL	55.8%	857	2.42	1.92	51.3%	—
78	Nils HoglanderFVAN	VAN	55.7%	914	2.50	1.99	53.2%	4.0%▲3.9
79	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	55.6%	1,349	3.40	2.72	53.8%	100%
80	Jesper BoqvistFBOS	BOS	55.6%	511	2.39	1.91	47.3%	0.1%
81	John TavaresFTOR	TOR	55.5%	1,134	3.07	2.46	51.9%	96%▲9.3
82	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	55.5%	820	3.09	2.47	55.3%	60%
83	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	55.5%	1,271	3.27	2.62	55.2%	82%▲13
84	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	55.4%	1,274	2.81	2.26	53.8%	99%▲6.5
85	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	55.3%	1,254	3.13	2.53	53.3%	100%▲1.9
86	Mikko RantanenFCOL	COL	55.3%	1,413	3.18	2.58	54.3%	99%▲0.7
87	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	55.3%	1,347	2.86	2.32	50.3%	37%▼32
88	Thomas HarleyDDAL	DAL	55.2%	1,466	2.88	2.33	55.5%	88%▲8.9
89	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	55.2%	1,052	3.04	2.47	53.8%	99%▲1.1
90	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	55.1%	1,089	2.55	2.08	54.6%	86%▲18
91	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	55.1%	988	2.48	2.03	49.6%	4.3%▲3
92	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	55.0%	1,521	2.86	2.34	53.6%	60%▼2.3
93	Ian ColeDVAN	VAN	55.0%	1,215	2.51	2.05	48.7%	4.9%▲4.3
94	Teddy BluegerFVAN	VAN	54.9%	837	2.75	2.26	52.3%	4.8%▲4.6
95	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	54.9%	1,354	2.84	2.34	52.9%	100%▲1
96	Joel Eriksson EkFMIN	MIN	54.8%	1,040	2.88	2.37	51.8%	82%▲11
97	Mattias JanmarkFEDM	EDM	54.8%	708	2.53	2.09	50.9%	0.0%
98	Anthony ManthaFWSH/VGK	WSH/VGK	54.8%	920	2.62	2.16	51.6%	53%▲16
99	Valtteri PuustinenFPIT	PIT	54.8%	534	2.69	2.22	52.4%	—
100	Dmitry KulikovDFLA	FLA	54.7%	1,069	2.63	2.17	54.4%	3.2%▲3.1

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 327 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

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