On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2023-245-on-5Through 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2023-24: Connor McDavid (EDM), 64.4% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

596 qualified

Show

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2023-24, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team
1	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	64.4%	1,235	4.23	2.34	59.4%	100%▲1.5
2	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	64.2%	1,235	4.24	2.37	59.2%	98%▼1.4
3	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	63.5%	1,458	3.97	2.28	60.1%	100%
4	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	62.9%	1,366	3.94	2.33	60.1%	77%▲9.7
5	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	61.2%	1,083	3.77	2.38	57.4%	77%▲15
6	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	60.7%	930	3.21	2.08	58.3%	97%▲7.2
7	Stefan NoesenFCAR	CAR	60.1%	823	3.05	2.03	60.7%	0.1%
8	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	60.0%	1,041	2.91	1.94	61.0%	4.1%▲3.4
9	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	59.8%	853	2.90	1.94	51.3%	24%▲20
10	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.7%	1,388	3.50	2.36	56.4%	100%▲0.8
11	Tommy NovakFNSH	NSH	59.5%	818	3.19	2.17	56.3%	11%▲9.1
12	Jesper FastFCAR	CAR	59.5%	823	2.69	1.83	63.5%	—
13	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.4%	589	3.19	2.18	56.4%	54%▲37
14	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	59.0%	657	2.71	1.88	54.9%	18%▲15
15	Evan RodriguesFFLA	FLA	58.9%	1,010	2.84	1.98	58.3%	8.3%▲6.5
16	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	58.9%	1,364	2.96	2.07	57.0%	100%▲4.5
17	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	58.9%	997	2.70	1.89	63.4%	20%▲13
18	Conor GarlandFVAN	VAN	58.7%	1,004	3.05	2.14	55.8%	10%▲7.4
19	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	58.6%	1,063	2.90	2.05	57.7%	99%
20	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	58.5%	1,146	2.94	2.09	56.1%	67%▼8.4
21	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	58.4%	1,000	3.03	2.16	56.5%	85%▲7.6
22	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	58.4%	571	2.87	2.04	51.4%	92%▲1.7
23	Jake GuentzelFPIT/CAR	PIT/CAR	58.4%	1,026	3.81	2.72	56.8%	100%
24	Arthur KaliyevFLAK	LAK	58.2%	523	3.01	2.16	57.7%	—
25	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	58.0%	1,258	3.63	2.63	55.6%	100%
26	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	57.9%	1,190	2.79	2.03	56.1%	100%▲0.5
27	Jordan EberleFSEA	SEA	57.8%	1,086	2.92	2.13	54.1%	30%▲2.6
28	Jonathan DrouinFCOL	COL	57.8%	1,095	3.11	2.27	54.8%	0.5%
29	Ryan McLeodFEDM	EDM	57.7%	973	3.11	2.27	56.7%	26%▲20
30	Dakota JoshuaFVAN	VAN	57.7%	746	2.92	2.14	51.3%	4.8%▲4.6
31	Warren FoegeleFEDM	EDM	57.7%	1,014	3.39	2.48	56.4%	4.0%▲3.9
32	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	57.7%	1,054	2.83	2.08	58.7%	95%▲1.5
33	Jack DruryFCAR	CAR	57.6%	792	2.67	1.97	60.9%	5.6%▲5.4
34	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	57.5%	1,384	3.12	2.30	60.6%	15%▲3.8
35	Ryan McDonaghDNSH	NSH	57.4%	1,257	3.12	2.31	53.2%	7.3%▲6.8
36	Derek ForbortDBOS	BOS	57.4%	500	2.83	2.10	45.4%	0.0%
37	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	57.3%	917	3.04	2.26	54.9%	70%▲23
38	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	57.3%	1,057	2.61	1.94	61.8%	4.3%▲2.7
39	Shane PintoFOTT	OTT	57.2%	588	2.86	2.14	53.6%	37%▲22
40	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	57.2%	1,043	3.01	2.26	54.0%	100%
41	Trevor MooreFLAK	LAK	57.1%	1,116	2.99	2.24	56.1%	9.1%
42	Adam LowryFWPG	WPG	57.1%	1,044	2.65	1.99	52.4%	5.7%▲5.5
43	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	57.1%	1,075	2.80	2.10	54.8%	100%▲0.8
44	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	57.0%	1,352	2.89	2.18	58.4%	42%▲18
45	Tyler BertuzziFTOR	TOR	57.0%	1,118	3.30	2.48	53.6%	62%▼3.2
46	Artemi PanarinFNYR	NYR	56.9%	1,262	3.40	2.57	56.6%	98%▼1.2
47	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.8%	1,241	3.21	2.44	54.4%	99%
48	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.7%	1,075	3.04	2.32	54.8%	93%▲7.9
49	Brent BurnsDCAR	CAR	56.7%	1,278	3.03	2.31	60.4%	50%▼14
50	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	56.7%	787	2.87	2.19	58.4%	50%▲34
51	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	56.6%	1,037	3.25	2.49	57.5%	73%▲1
52	Nate SchmidtDWPG	WPG	56.6%	891	2.50	1.91	52.5%	4.9%▲4.5
53	Pius SuterFVAN	VAN	56.6%	807	2.54	1.95	53.9%	4.1%▲3.3
54	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	56.6%	1,279	2.75	2.11	59.9%	35%▲21
55	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	56.6%	1,608	3.00	2.30	52.8%	99%▲3.3
56	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	56.5%	1,058	2.92	2.25	55.9%	4.9%▲4.5
57	Garnet HathawayFPHI	PHI	56.4%	875	2.37	1.83	50.4%	4.8%▲4.6
58	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	56.4%	596	2.61	2.02	51.1%	—
59	Nino NiederreiterFWPG	WPG	56.4%	982	2.68	2.07	53.0%	4.0%▲3.8
60	Mark GiordanoDTOR	TOR	56.4%	630	3.01	2.33	54.5%	—
61	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	56.4%	1,125	3.13	2.42	56.9%	96%▲11
62	Mikko RantanenFCOL	COL	56.3%	1,370	3.20	2.49	54.5%	99%▲0.7
63	Brett KulakDEDM	EDM	56.3%	1,162	2.82	2.19	53.2%	0.3%
64	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	56.3%	1,039	3.35	2.60	57.5%	100%▲2.7
65	Craig SmithFDAL	DAL	56.2%	751	2.52	1.96	56.0%	—
66	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	56.2%	1,185	3.27	2.54	56.0%	100%▲2.2
67	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	56.2%	1,472	2.83	2.21	53.8%	60%▼2.3
68	Vincent TrocheckFNYR	NYR	56.2%	1,241	3.21	2.51	53.5%	88%▼5.5
69	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	56.1%	1,077	3.10	2.43	57.4%	99%▲0.9
70	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	56.0%	848	2.84	2.24	50.2%	99%▲1.4
71	Ondrej PalatFNJD	NJD	56.0%	931	3.01	2.36	54.8%	0.1%
72	Calvin de HaanDTBL	TBL	55.9%	852	2.42	1.91	51.5%	—
73	Sonny MilanoFWSH	WSH	55.9%	557	2.65	2.09	47.9%	—
74	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	55.8%	1,542	2.83	2.24	57.2%	100%
75	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	55.8%	900	3.23	2.56	57.5%	83%▲4
76	John TavaresFTOR	TOR	55.8%	1,108	3.01	2.39	51.9%	96%▲9.3
77	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	55.8%	1,237	3.27	2.59	55.5%	82%▲13
78	Nils HoglanderFVAN	VAN	55.7%	912	2.51	1.99	53.2%	4.0%▲3.9
79	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	55.7%	1,204	3.03	2.40	52.5%	98%▼0.8
80	James van RiemsdykFBOS	BOS	55.7%	769	2.98	2.37	48.8%	0.3%
81	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	55.7%	1,311	3.37	2.68	53.8%	100%
82	Thomas HarleyDDAL	DAL	55.6%	1,424	2.80	2.24	55.7%	88%▲8.9
83	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	55.6%	1,327	2.87	2.29	50.2%	37%▼32
84	Ilya MikheyevFVAN	VAN	55.5%	946	2.65	2.12	52.9%	8.4%▲6.8
85	Teddy BluegerFVAN	VAN	55.5%	831	2.76	2.21	52.4%	4.8%▲4.6
86	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDFLA	FLA	55.5%	1,132	2.76	2.22	56.2%	43%▲32
87	Ian ColeDVAN	VAN	55.4%	1,206	2.51	2.02	48.9%	4.9%▲4.3
88	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	55.4%	1,236	2.77	2.24	53.7%	99%▲6.5
89	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	55.3%	797	3.05	2.46	55.5%	60%
90	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	55.3%	1,308	2.82	2.28	53.0%	100%▲1
91	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	55.2%	1,074	2.54	2.07	54.7%	86%▲18
92	Joel Eriksson EkFMIN	MIN	55.2%	997	2.89	2.35	52.2%	82%▲11
93	Jesper BoqvistFBOS	BOS	55.1%	503	2.31	1.88	47.2%	0.1%
94	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	55.1%	1,221	3.08	2.51	53.4%	100%▲1.9
95	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	55.0%	1,006	2.94	2.41	53.8%	99%▲1.1
96	Mattias JanmarkFEDM	EDM	54.8%	707	2.54	2.09	50.9%	0.0%
97	Tyson FoersterFPHI	PHI	54.8%	1,078	2.49	2.06	54.3%	42%▲38
98	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	54.8%	980	2.46	2.03	49.6%	4.3%▲3
99	Zach WhitecloudDVGK	VGK	54.7%	957	2.46	2.04	48.0%	7.3%▲6.7
100	Kiefer SherwoodFNSH	NSH	54.7%	773	2.63	2.18	52.4%	60%▲7

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 328 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

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