On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2024-255-on-5Through 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2024-25: Jackson Blake (CAR), 61.3% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

595 qualified

Show

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2024-25, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team
1	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	61.3%	914	3.12	1.97	61.3%	68%▲21
2	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	61.1%	1,182	3.66	2.34	58.6%	100%
3	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	60.2%	1,153	3.80	2.52	60.3%	100%▲1.5
4	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	60.1%	936	2.78	1.85	60.2%	97%▲7.2
5	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.9%	1,350	3.60	2.41	58.9%	100%▲0.8
6	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	59.8%	1,171	3.45	2.32	59.8%	77%▲9.7
7	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	59.7%	1,080	3.59	2.42	59.0%	98%▼1.4
8	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	59.6%	957	3.14	2.12	59.6%	95%▲1.5
9	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	59.5%	1,138	3.19	2.17	55.0%	51%▲19
10	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	59.2%	994	3.23	2.23	62.3%	96%▲16
11	Josh DoanFUTA	UTA	58.7%	600	2.65	1.86	58.0%	61%▲44
12	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	58.7%	1,232	3.12	2.19	53.3%	100%▲1.9
13	Alex LaferriereFLAK	LAK	58.6%	1,086	2.82	2.00	55.5%	68%▲3.5
14	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	58.4%	1,524	3.37	2.40	59.2%	100%
15	Mark JankowskiFNSH/CAR	NSH/CAR	58.3%	622	2.69	1.93	56.4%	0.2%
16	Nate SchmidtDFLA	FLA	58.2%	1,139	2.61	1.87	56.8%	4.9%▲4.5
17	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	58.2%	952	3.15	2.26	55.3%	100%
18	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	58.2%	1,122	2.56	1.84	58.5%	99%
19	Warren FoegeleFLAK	LAK	58.2%	1,098	2.65	1.91	54.4%	4.0%▲3.9
20	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	58.0%	1,181	2.80	2.02	56.5%	67%▼8.4
21	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	57.6%	1,095	2.75	2.03	56.5%	4.9%▲4.5
22	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	57.6%	1,457	3.18	2.34	56.2%	100%▲1
23	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	57.5%	1,100	3.28	2.43	56.4%	54%▲37
24	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.4%	1,032	3.22	2.39	50.3%	93%▲20
25	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	57.3%	1,148	2.99	2.23	56.8%	73%▲1
26	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	57.3%	808	2.70	2.01	54.7%	—
27	Jordan SpenceDLAK	LAK	57.2%	1,147	2.53	1.89	56.7%	21%▲17
28	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	57.1%	858	2.78	2.09	52.8%	93%▲7.9
29	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	57.1%	716	3.11	2.34	58.4%	100%▲2.7
30	Uvis BalinskisDFLA	FLA	57.0%	997	2.46	1.86	55.1%	4.0%▲3.9
31	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	57.0%	1,028	3.11	2.34	57.9%	11%▲11
32	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	57.0%	1,141	2.65	2.00	55.4%	86%▲18
33	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	56.9%	953	2.97	2.25	52.1%	93%▲9
34	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	56.9%	1,009	2.75	2.08	56.9%	64%▲55
35	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	56.8%	985	2.97	2.26	53.5%	100%▲2.2
36	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	56.8%	1,075	3.29	2.51	60.0%	99%▲0.9
37	Sean MonahanFCBJ	CBJ	56.7%	743	3.11	2.38	54.5%	19%▲13
38	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	56.7%	715	2.37	1.82	54.0%	12%▲12
39	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	56.6%	1,263	3.44	2.64	52.2%	100%
40	Jesperi KotkaniemiFCAR	CAR	56.5%	968	2.87	2.21	57.9%	3.2%▲3.1
41	Kaedan KorczakDVGK	VGK	56.4%	588	2.54	1.96	49.2%	6.7%▲6.5
42	Joel KivirantaFCOL	COL	56.3%	854	2.31	1.79	51.9%	0.1%
43	Alex TurcotteFLAK	LAK	56.3%	737	2.45	1.90	53.3%	8.8%▲8.8
44	Tomas NosekFFLA	FLA	56.3%	509	2.53	1.96	56.2%	—
45	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.2%	954	3.15	2.45	51.9%	99%
46	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	56.1%	1,149	3.08	2.41	51.4%	99%▲1.4
47	Nico HischierFNJD	NJD	56.1%	1,073	2.88	2.25	54.7%	98%▲3
48	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	56.0%	1,124	2.77	2.17	53.6%	92%▲1.7
49	Eric RobinsonFCAR	CAR	55.9%	935	2.94	2.32	59.2%	3.2%▲3.1
50	Chris TanevDTOR	TOR	55.9%	1,229	2.46	1.94	47.8%	6.0%▲5
51	Vladislav GavrikovDLAK	LAK	55.9%	1,537	2.42	1.90	54.9%	41%▼5.7
52	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	55.9%	1,237	2.93	2.31	60.0%	60%▼11
53	Mikey AndersonDLAK	LAK	55.8%	1,429	2.33	1.85	51.5%	7.3%▲6.9
54	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	55.8%	707	2.57	2.04	55.7%	24%▲20
55	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	55.8%	1,079	2.99	2.37	53.2%	96%▲11
56	Pierre-Luc DuboisFWSH	WSH	55.7%	1,147	3.00	2.38	52.4%	41%▲32
57	Morgan BarronFWPG	WPG	55.7%	668	2.22	1.77	50.9%	4.8%▲4.7
58	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	55.7%	1,439	2.65	2.11	51.6%	23%▲20
59	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	55.5%	1,506	2.91	2.33	56.2%	60%▼2.3
60	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	55.5%	748	2.60	2.09	53.3%	8.1%▲7.8
61	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	55.5%	725	2.60	2.09	53.3%	98%▼0.8
62	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	55.5%	985	2.83	2.27	53.6%	83%▲2.9
63	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	55.4%	1,183	2.89	2.32	50.0%	99%▲1.1
64	Emil AndraeDPHI	PHI	55.4%	642	2.58	2.07	52.0%	8.8%▲8.6
65	Jonas SiegenthalerDNJD	NJD	55.4%	922	2.27	1.82	51.2%	3.3%▲2.9
66	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	55.4%	813	2.34	1.89	51.5%	4.3%▲3
67	Timo MeierFNJD	NJD	55.4%	1,204	2.84	2.29	53.3%	82%▼8
68	Zachary BolducFSTL	STL	55.3%	804	2.29	1.85	50.8%	21%▲19
69	Brandt ClarkeDLAK	LAK	55.3%	1,091	2.76	2.23	53.7%	96%▲11
70	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	55.3%	1,070	3.01	2.44	50.0%	67%▲26
71	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	55.3%	1,089	2.56	2.07	51.6%	95%▲9.2
72	Viktor ArvidssonFEDM	EDM	55.3%	880	3.00	2.43	56.1%	32%▲23
73	Noah DobsonDNYI	NYI	55.2%	1,299	2.69	2.18	53.0%	97%▼1.3
74	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	55.2%	1,157	2.77	2.25	50.8%	79%▲2.9
75	Pavel BuchnevichFSTL	STL	55.1%	1,090	3.08	2.51	48.8%	36%▲7.7
76	Adam PelechDNYI	NYI	55.1%	1,093	2.49	2.03	56.2%	3.2%▲3
77	Vladislav NamestnikovFWPG	WPG	55.1%	981	2.54	2.07	52.3%	0.1%
78	Martin NecasFCAR/COL	CAR/COL	55.0%	1,113	3.08	2.52	58.3%	100%▲1.3
79	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	55.0%	1,316	2.70	2.21	59.3%	35%▲21
80	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	55.0%	1,490	2.68	2.19	56.4%	42%▲18
81	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	55.0%	1,314	2.76	2.26	58.9%	4.1%▲3.4
82	A.J. GreerFFLA	FLA	55.0%	728	2.39	1.96	53.9%	7.5%▲5.8
83	Artem ZubDOTT	OTT	54.9%	952	2.41	1.98	50.6%	10%▲6.1
84	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	54.9%	1,007	2.71	2.22	59.9%	4.3%▲2.7
85	Victor HedmanDTBL	TBL	54.9%	1,366	2.92	2.40	52.3%	93%▲11
86	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	54.9%	1,164	2.63	2.16	48.9%	34%▼15
87	Cody GlassFPIT/NJD	PIT/NJD	54.8%	741	2.28	1.88	55.4%	4.9%▲4.5
88	Jacob MoverareDLAK	LAK	54.8%	567	2.44	2.01	52.8%	0.0%
89	Dylan SambergDWPG	WPG	54.8%	1,078	2.61	2.16	52.5%	4.0%▲3.9
90	Cole PerfettiFWPG	WPG	54.6%	1,070	2.49	2.07	52.7%	36%▲32
91	Zach WhitecloudDVGK	VGK	54.5%	1,201	2.59	2.16	51.8%	7.3%▲6.7
92	Jayden StrubleDMTL	MTL	54.4%	792	2.64	2.21	52.0%	3.3%▲2.9
93	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	54.4%	946	2.82	2.36	60.3%	20%▲13
94	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	54.4%	1,212	3.09	2.59	50.8%	100%
95	Darnell NurseDEDM	EDM	54.4%	1,429	2.77	2.32	52.1%	70%▼12
96	John MarinoDUTA	UTA	54.4%	624	2.91	2.44	53.6%	18%▲13
97	Matthew KniesFTOR	TOR	54.4%	1,088	2.89	2.43	49.8%	94%▲14
98	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	54.3%	1,400	2.84	2.39	57.9%	15%▲3.8
99	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	54.3%	1,567	2.68	2.26	51.3%	99%▲3.3
100	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	54.3%	972	3.00	2.52	53.4%	100%▲4.5

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 325 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

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