On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2026-275-on-5Through 2 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2026-27: Brett Howden (VGK), 97.1% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

Early sample: teams have played at most 2 games in 2026-27. Expect big swings.

188 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2026-27, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team
1	Brett HowdenFVGK	VGK	97.1%	16	3.45	0.10	63.0%	15%▲15
2	Kaedan KorczakDPIT	PIT	88.6%	16	3.73	0.48	63.0%	6.7%▲6.5
3	Samuel GirardDPIT	PIT	87.5%	17	3.84	0.55	62.1%	8.2%▲7.8
4	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	86.8%	29	4.99	0.76	80.4%	100%
5	Kris LetangDPIT	PIT	85.4%	17	3.34	0.57	70.4%	46%▼16
6	Luke HughesDNJD	NJD	85.0%	17	5.72	1.01	82.9%	84%▲40
7	Arseny GritsyukFNJD	NJD	83.8%	15	4.53	0.87	77.8%	22%▲21
8	MacKenzie WeegarDUTA	UTA	83.4%	19	5.28	1.05	67.4%	93%▼6.8
9	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	82.6%	16	2.96	0.62	67.9%	100%▲2
10	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	81.6%	26	2.69	0.61	57.1%	73%▲1
11	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	80.0%	27	5.24	1.31	78.7%	64%▲55
12	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	79.1%	27	2.27	0.60	51.4%	83%▲4
13	Dougie HamiltonDNJD	NJD	78.8%	17	4.66	1.26	65.2%	84%▲12
14	Jack RoslovicFTOR	TOR	78.7%	26	2.63	0.71	63.9%	34%▲26
15	Mikhail SergachevDUTA	UTA	78.6%	18	4.26	1.16	59.5%	98%▲5.2
16	Kirill MarchenkoFTOR	TOR	77.3%	27	3.36	0.99	58.3%	98%▲7
17	Trevor van RiemsdykDPIT	PIT	76.0%	17	3.04	0.96	63.3%	0.8%
18	Brandon MontourDSEA	SEA	74.8%	18	4.05	1.36	59.5%	83%▲10
19	Brett PesceDNJD	NJD	74.7%	18	3.80	1.29	80.0%	0.3%
20	Ryker EvansDSEA	SEA	74.6%	18	4.44	1.51	55.6%	14%▲13
21	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	74.5%	18	3.66	1.25	73.7%	100%
22	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	74.1%	16	3.50	1.22	60.0%	91%▲28
23	Radko GudasDFLA	FLA	74.0%	22	2.52	0.88	65.0%	25%▲22
24	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	73.8%	16	1.67	0.59	57.1%	99%▲1.1
25	Elias PetterssonDVAN	VAN	72.9%	26	2.30	0.85	56.1%	13%▲13
26	Anthony ManthaFNJD	NJD	72.2%	15	3.78	1.46	62.5%	53%▲16
27	Dmitri SimashevDUTA	UTA	72.1%	15	4.73	1.83	66.7%	20%▲20
28	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	71.9%	37	3.39	1.32	72.3%	100%
29	Dmitry KulikovDFLA	FLA	71.2%	25	2.68	1.08	54.3%	3.2%▲3.1
30	Jonas SiegenthalerDNJD	NJD	71.0%	19	3.60	1.47	63.8%	3.3%▲2.9
31	Noah HanifinDVGK	VGK	71.0%	17	3.91	1.60	55.3%	52%▼23
32	Matthew SchaeferDNYI	NYI	70.9%	19	2.01	0.83	79.4%	100%
33	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	70.8%	25	1.45	0.60	59.5%	99%
34	Brett KulakDCOL	COL	70.6%	16	4.03	1.68	54.8%	0.3%
35	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	70.6%	16	0.85	0.36	65.0%	97%▲7.2
36	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	70.3%	22	2.40	1.01	53.8%	100%▲2.7
37	Eetu LuostarinenFFLA	FLA	70.2%	22	3.86	1.64	63.2%	11%▲9.1
38	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	70.2%	17	3.68	1.56	65.5%	23%▲20
39	Seth JonesDFLA	FLA	70.0%	35	2.39	1.02	61.2%	80%▲32
40	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	70.0%	36	3.10	1.33	68.8%	77%▲9.7
41	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	69.7%	23	2.15	0.93	46.7%	50%▲34
42	Brady TkachukFFLA	FLA	69.7%	22	1.50	0.65	53.1%	100%▲2.2
43	Luke SchennDVAN	VAN	68.9%	25	2.71	1.22	62.8%	7.3%▲6.9
44	Jeremy LauzonDVGK	VGK	68.7%	15	3.85	1.75	54.3%	24%▲22
45	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	68.7%	30	3.01	1.37	69.1%	100%▲1.5
46	Anton LundellFFLA	FLA	67.3%	21	4.87	2.37	53.2%	45%▲30
47	Nate SchmidtDUTA	UTA	67.1%	16	3.20	1.57	60.0%	4.9%▲4.5
48	Hampus LindholmDBOS	BOS	66.6%	17	4.38	2.20	61.3%	16%▲15
49	Andrew PeekeDUTA	UTA	66.0%	15	2.44	1.26	51.9%	6.5%▲6.2
50	Olli MaattaDMIN	MIN	66.0%	16	3.09	1.59	48.5%	0.2%
51	Niko MikkolaDFLA	FLA	65.1%	36	2.33	1.25	55.4%	4.9%▲4.4
52	Ryan SheaDEDM	EDM	64.9%	36	3.02	1.64	57.7%	15%▲9.6
53	Jared SpurgeonDMIN	MIN	64.8%	15	2.93	1.59	55.9%	9.3%▲7.4
54	David PastrnakFBOS	BOS	64.4%	16	3.27	1.81	60.7%	100%▲1.2
55	JJ PeterkaFBOS	BOS	63.9%	15	3.27	1.85	62.1%	75%▲36
56	Mike MathesonDMTL	MTL	63.7%	18	3.90	2.22	48.6%	85%▼7.5
57	Will BorgenDBOS	BOS	63.4%	17	3.82	2.21	53.8%	4.1%▲3.8
58	Easton CowanFTOR	TOR	63.2%	21	2.74	1.60	60.5%	50%▲47
59	Vince DunnDSEA	SEA	63.1%	16	3.42	2.00	47.4%	88%▲11
60	Adam LarssonDSEA	SEA	62.5%	17	3.56	2.13	40.5%	22%▼19
61	Quinn HughesDMIN	MIN	62.4%	21	2.74	1.65	64.1%	100%
62	Trent FredericFEDM	EDM	62.3%	16	2.75	1.66	42.9%	4.0%▲3.8
63	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	62.1%	28	3.18	1.94	61.4%	99%
64	Morgan GeekieFBOS	BOS	62.0%	15	3.78	2.32	50.0%	97%▲8.6
65	J.T. MillerFNYR	NYR	61.5%	25	3.68	2.30	59.2%	92%▲7.9
66	Ryan WintertonFSEA	SEA	61.1%	16	3.63	2.30	44.1%	4.0%▲3.9
67	Teddy BluegerFTOR	TOR	60.6%	16	1.36	0.88	25.0%	4.8%▲4.6
68	Sandis VilmanisFFLA	FLA	60.1%	24	3.75	2.49	51.1%	6.4%▲6.3
69	Denton MateychukDCBJ	CBJ	59.2%	23	2.43	1.67	46.7%	42%▲40
70	Owen PowerDBUF	BUF	58.9%	21	2.23	1.56	59.4%	53%▲29
71	Oliver BjorkstrandFNYR	NYR	58.7%	26	3.63	2.55	55.8%	20%
72	Kasperi KapanenFEDM	EDM	57.3%	28	3.76	2.81	66.7%	7.5%▲7.2
73	Alexandre CarrierDMTL	MTL	57.1%	17	3.14	2.36	53.1%	14%▲12
74	Alex FormentonFEDM	EDM	57.0%	27	2.37	1.79	54.5%	9.6%▲9.6
75	Morgan RiellyDTOR	TOR	56.5%	32	2.74	2.11	49.2%	76%▼4.7
76	Isaac HowardFEDM	EDM	56.0%	18	2.28	1.79	40.6%	31%▲30
77	Vladislav GavrikovDNYR	NYR	55.9%	33	2.87	2.27	56.3%	41%▼5.7
78	John MarinoDUTA	UTA	55.9%	19	2.58	2.04	57.1%	18%▲13
79	Zach WerenskiDCBJ	CBJ	55.8%	21	2.52	2.00	37.1%	100%
80	Pavel DorofeyevFNYR	NYR	55.5%	25	3.80	3.05	54.0%	92%▲1.7
81	Mikey AndersonDLAK	LAK	55.3%	16	2.76	2.23	55.6%	7.3%▲6.9
82	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	55.1%	28	2.13	1.74	50.0%	82%▲13
83	Martin NecasFCOL	COL	54.6%	15	2.95	2.46	50.0%	100%▲1.3
84	Colton SissonsFTOR	TOR	54.4%	20	1.73	1.45	52.9%	3.3%▲3.1
85	Mason LohreiDBOS	BOS	54.4%	17	2.51	2.10	50.0%	22%▲21
86	Jake MiddletonDCGY	CGY	54.4%	16	3.49	2.93	59.4%	5.7%▲5.3
87	Jonathan AspirotDBOS	BOS	54.3%	16	2.66	2.23	48.6%	4.8%▲4.6
88	Mika ZibanejadFNYR	NYR	54.1%	28	2.09	1.77	46.7%	98%▲1.1
89	Jake WalmanDEDM	EDM	53.8%	24	2.79	2.40	50.0%	33%▲30
90	Connor CliftonDBOS	BOS	52.6%	22	2.01	1.81	57.6%	7.4%▲6.7
91	Brendan GallagherFVAN	VAN	52.5%	20	3.10	2.81	43.2%	3.3%▲2.8
92	Liam OhgrenFVAN	VAN	50.7%	28	1.50	1.46	47.8%	17%▲17
93	Brock BoeserFVAN	VAN	50.6%	28	1.50	1.46	46.8%	63%▼5.5
94	Eeli TolvanenFNYR	NYR	50.6%	23	2.31	2.25	47.9%	36%▼9.4
95	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	50.0%	31	2.80	2.80	56.9%	99%▲6.5
96	Marco RossiFVAN	VAN	49.6%	24	3.22	3.28	54.0%	58%▲12
97	Arshdeep BainsFVAN	VAN	49.3%	19	3.67	3.77	54.1%	3.2%▲3.1
98	Nikita ZadorovDBOS	BOS	49.0%	21	1.85	1.92	54.8%	39%▲21
99	Frank NazarFCHI	CHI	48.7%	28	2.53	2.66	54.9%	54%▲34
100	Jordan GreenwayFCHI	CHI	48.6%	25	1.85	1.95	59.0%	0.3%

Minimum sample: 15 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 267 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

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