On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2025-26Even strengthThrough 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2025-26: Jordan Spence (OTT), 62.6% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

602 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2025-26, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Jordan SpenceDOTT	OTT	62.6%	1,243	3.29	1.96	60.5%	54.8%	49.7%	21%▲17
2	Sam MalinskiDCOL	COL	61.7%	1,351	3.31	2.05	58.8%	56.6%	49.6%	56%▲33
3	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	61.5%	840	3.29	2.06	55.4%	55.6%	49.1%	93%▲9
4	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	61.4%	773	3.55	2.23	58.5%	55.5%	50.1%	100%▲2.2
5	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	60.9%	952	3.18	2.05	54.7%	50.9%	49.9%	79%▲2.9
6	Mark JankowskiFCAR	CAR	60.5%	658	2.62	1.71	58.7%	55.4%	49.4%	0.2%
7	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	60.3%	1,226	3.56	2.34	57.4%	57.5%	49.7%	60%▼2.3
8	Brock NelsonFCOL	COL	60.1%	1,124	3.41	2.27	57.4%	56.9%	49.9%	87%▼4
9	Jack DruryFCOL	COL	59.5%	988	2.63	1.79	58.4%	56.5%	49.5%	5.6%▲5.4
10	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	59.4%	977	3.37	2.30	57.5%	57.3%	50.0%	60%
11	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.4%	1,370	3.88	2.65	57.5%	57.3%	49.8%	100%▲0.8
12	Dylan CozensFOTT	OTT	59.3%	1,087	3.03	2.08	57.1%	55.3%	49.8%	90%▲3.6
13	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	59.1%	1,030	3.82	2.64	57.9%	54.8%	50.0%	100%▲1.9
14	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	59.0%	860	3.36	2.33	59.6%	55.3%	49.3%	96%▲16
15	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.0%	1,014	3.53	2.46	55.3%	57.7%	49.7%	54%▲37
16	William CarrierFCAR	CAR	58.8%	741	2.61	1.83	59.9%	55.3%	49.5%	0.1%
17	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	58.8%	1,520	3.57	2.50	55.1%	53.5%	49.9%	100%
18	Gabriel LandeskogFCOL	COL	58.7%	798	3.57	2.51	55.7%	57.5%	49.9%	50%▲32
19	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	58.6%	1,460	3.45	2.44	55.8%	53.4%	49.9%	77%▲9.7
20	Danton HeinenFCBJ/PIT	CBJ/PIT	58.4%	501	2.48	1.76	53.4%	50.3%	49.9%	0.0%
21	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	58.3%	1,107	3.40	2.43	61.3%	55.9%	49.7%	67%▲42
22	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	58.3%	1,154	3.46	2.48	52.8%	55.7%	49.7%	99%▲1.4
23	Claude GirouxFOTT	OTT	58.1%	986	2.85	2.05	54.4%	54.9%	50.0%	30%▲20
24	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	58.1%	842	3.19	2.30	58.6%	56.8%	49.6%	8.1%▲7.8
25	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	58.0%	1,241	3.18	2.30	56.7%	53.4%	50.0%	100%▲2
26	Parker KellyFCOL	COL	58.0%	855	2.58	1.87	57.0%	56.1%	49.3%	11%▲5.7
27	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	57.9%	1,138	3.43	2.49	60.8%	56.0%	49.6%	68%▲21
28	Hendrix LapierreFWSH	WSH	57.4%	639	2.78	2.06	54.3%	50.2%	49.7%	7.3%▲7.2
29	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	57.2%	1,156	3.70	2.77	55.9%	55.0%	50.0%	100%
30	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	57.1%	1,439	3.67	2.75	54.3%	53.3%	50.0%	100%▲1.5
31	Joel NystromDCAR	CAR	57.1%	529	3.18	2.39	59.7%	55.5%	49.2%	4.0%▲4
32	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.0%	927	3.21	2.42	51.8%	51.4%	50.0%	93%▲20
33	Thomas ChabotDOTT	OTT	57.0%	1,033	3.08	2.32	52.8%	55.1%	49.5%	83%▼11
34	Josh MansonDCOL	COL	57.0%	1,222	2.97	2.24	57.3%	56.5%	49.7%	32%▲16
35	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	56.9%	1,083	3.06	2.31	60.5%	55.2%	49.9%	93%▲7.9
36	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	56.9%	691	2.66	2.01	50.4%	53.0%	50.1%	85%▲7.6
37	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	56.8%	1,278	3.17	2.41	51.5%	52.6%	50.0%	100%▲0.5
38	K'Andre MillerDCAR	CAR	56.8%	1,381	3.08	2.34	61.7%	55.6%	50.0%	64%▲26
39	Martin NecasFCOL	COL	56.8%	1,307	3.53	2.68	56.1%	57.9%	49.9%	100%▲1.3
40	Jake SandersonDOTT	OTT	56.8%	1,186	2.86	2.17	55.7%	55.1%	50.3%	99%▲3.2
41	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	56.8%	911	3.47	2.64	55.8%	55.3%	50.1%	51%▲19
42	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	56.8%	1,350	3.25	2.48	54.7%	57.6%	49.8%	100%▲1
43	Gage GoncalvesFTBL	TBL	56.7%	871	2.71	2.07	52.8%	53.8%	49.9%	11%▲11
44	Kaedan KorczakDVGK	VGK	56.7%	1,201	2.70	2.06	51.6%	53.9%	49.6%	6.7%▲6.5
45	Samuel GirardDCOL/PIT	COL/PIT	56.7%	1,017	2.99	2.28	53.6%	54.8%	50.0%	8.2%▲7.8
46	Fabian ZetterlundFOTT	OTT	56.7%	948	2.94	2.25	52.8%	54.6%	49.6%	13%▲6.6
47	Drake BathersonFOTT	OTT	56.6%	1,072	2.91	2.23	55.4%	55.5%	49.8%	97%▲7.4
48	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	56.5%	1,356	3.00	2.31	53.6%	54.9%	49.8%	91%▲28
49	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	56.5%	1,234	3.12	2.40	51.5%	56.0%	49.8%	67%▲26
50	Troy TerryFANA	ANA	56.5%	836	3.33	2.57	54.9%	51.4%	49.7%	47%▲34
51	Denver BarkeyFPHI	PHI	56.5%	501	2.56	1.97	49.8%	52.5%	49.7%	15%▲14
52	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	56.4%	1,391	2.77	2.14	50.1%	52.5%	50.1%	100%▲4.5
53	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	56.4%	1,089	3.37	2.60	53.4%	51.9%	49.8%	100%
54	Damon SeversonDCBJ	CBJ	56.4%	1,351	2.96	2.29	54.5%	51.1%	50.1%	9.4%▲6.2
55	Eric RobinsonFCAR	CAR	56.4%	686	2.66	2.05	57.4%	55.7%	49.1%	3.2%▲3.1
56	Darren RaddyshDTBL	TBL	56.3%	1,273	3.09	2.40	57.0%	54.3%	49.9%	100%▲3.5
57	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	56.2%	1,171	2.81	2.18	53.9%	55.1%	49.6%	99%▲1.1
58	Kailer YamamotoFUTA	UTA	56.2%	662	2.63	2.05	52.8%	51.7%	49.6%	0.2%
59	Taylor HallFCAR	CAR	56.2%	1,015	3.31	2.58	59.9%	56.2%	49.5%	28%▲21
60	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	56.2%	1,510	3.00	2.34	61.2%	55.6%	49.9%	60%▼11
61	Nick CousinsFOTT	OTT	56.2%	916	2.44	1.90	52.2%	54.3%	49.7%	0.1%
62	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	56.2%	1,034	2.73	2.13	55.9%	48.1%	50.1%	99%▲6.5
63	Michael CarconeFUTA	UTA	56.2%	919	2.91	2.28	57.7%	52.2%	49.5%	5.0%▲4
64	Nick SchmaltzFUTA	UTA	56.1%	1,188	2.97	2.32	55.9%	53.7%	50.0%	94%▲4.7
65	Maxwell CrozierDTBL	TBL	56.0%	511	2.69	2.11	54.0%	53.0%	49.7%	5.6%▲5.5
66	Tommy NovakFPIT	PIT	56.0%	1,060	3.38	2.66	51.3%	50.7%	50.0%	11%▲9.1
67	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	55.9%	831	2.80	2.21	54.1%	53.4%	49.8%	11%▲11
68	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	55.9%	932	2.79	2.20	57.4%	50.9%	49.9%	—
69	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	55.8%	1,114	2.73	2.16	52.4%	55.2%	50.0%	23%▲20
70	Ben HuttonDVGK	VGK	55.8%	785	2.77	2.20	50.4%	54.0%	49.0%	—
71	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	55.7%	1,117	2.71	2.15	55.6%	54.5%	49.4%	92%▲1.7
72	Charle-Edouard D'AstousDTBL	TBL	55.7%	1,187	2.76	2.19	52.8%	53.4%	49.7%	22%▲17
73	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	55.7%	900	3.56	2.83	51.9%	53.7%	49.8%	98%▼1.4
74	J.J. MoserDTBL	TBL	55.6%	1,465	3.10	2.47	56.9%	54.2%	50.1%	22%▲20
75	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	55.5%	689	2.77	2.22	58.9%	54.8%	50.2%	15%▲3.8
76	Tom WilsonFWSH	WSH	55.4%	987	3.08	2.48	53.7%	50.5%	50.4%	95%▲6.5
77	Mike ReillyDCAR	CAR	55.4%	575	2.97	2.38	59.9%	55.3%	49.1%	0.1%
78	Noah HanifinDVGK	VGK	55.4%	1,406	2.76	2.22	53.2%	53.6%	49.3%	52%▼23
79	David PerronFOTT/DET	OTT/DET	55.4%	742	2.41	1.94	51.3%	53.1%	49.8%	0.2%
80	Lane HutsonDMTL	MTL	55.3%	1,588	3.12	2.52	52.8%	50.0%	50.2%	99%▲3.1
81	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	55.3%	1,173	3.31	2.67	56.3%	49.9%	50.2%	96%▲11
82	Leo CarlssonFANA	ANA	55.3%	994	3.36	2.72	56.3%	51.4%	49.9%	94%▲10
83	Brent BurnsDCOL	COL	55.3%	1,281	3.01	2.44	55.7%	56.7%	49.7%	50%▼14
84	Brandon SaadFVGK	VGK	55.3%	604	2.78	2.25	51.9%	53.8%	49.7%	—
85	Tim StützleFOTT	OTT	55.1%	1,135	3.13	2.55	54.2%	55.6%	49.9%	100%▲0.8
86	John MarinoDUTA	UTA	55.0%	1,453	2.78	2.27	54.3%	53.2%	49.8%	18%▲13
87	Chris KreiderFANA	ANA	55.0%	953	3.18	2.61	55.8%	51.3%	49.7%	62%▲29
88	Nate SchmidtDUTA	UTA	55.0%	1,384	2.92	2.39	54.9%	53.2%	49.8%	4.9%▲4.5
89	Moritz SeiderDDET	DET	55.0%	1,640	2.78	2.28	53.0%	48.5%	50.3%	100%▲0.6
90	Esa LindellDDAL	DAL	54.9%	1,480	2.57	2.11	48.6%	52.5%	50.1%	37%▼32
91	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	54.9%	1,147	3.14	2.58	52.9%	54.4%	50.0%	100%
92	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	54.8%	1,109	3.44	2.83	61.5%	55.0%	50.1%	99%▲0.9
93	Michael AmadioFOTT	OTT	54.8%	1,167	2.48	2.05	50.5%	55.0%	50.2%	3.3%▲2.6
94	Braeden BowmanFVGK	VGK	54.8%	681	2.91	2.40	49.7%	54.8%	49.6%	16%▲16
95	Mavrik BourqueFDAL	DAL	54.8%	1,144	2.77	2.29	52.0%	52.3%	50.0%	35%▲31
96	Victor OlofssonFCOL/CGY	COL/CGY	54.7%	881	2.69	2.23	55.0%	54.7%	50.0%	12%▲12
97	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	54.7%	896	3.04	2.52	50.5%	51.1%	49.3%	95%▲9.2
98	Zach WerenskiDCBJ	CBJ	54.6%	1,622	3.06	2.54	53.9%	50.9%	50.2%	100%
99	Josh DoanFBUF	BUF	54.6%	1,042	3.05	2.54	51.7%	50.9%	50.1%	61%▲44
100	Pontus HolmbergFTBL	TBL	54.6%	905	2.32	1.93	54.2%	52.3%	50.1%	0.1%

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 338 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

How reliable is it?

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