On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2025-26All situationsThrough 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2025-26: Brady Tkachuk (OTT), 67.7% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

619 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2025-26, All situations
#	Player	Team
1	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	67.7%	1,018	5.04	2.41	64.6%	100%▲2.2
2	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	66.6%	1,781	5.29	2.65	63.4%	100%▲0.8
3	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	66.1%	1,545	5.53	2.83	62.5%	100%
4	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	66.0%	1,153	4.88	2.51	60.8%	93%▲9
5	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	66.0%	1,661	4.83	2.49	58.6%	100%▲0.5
6	Gabriel LandeskogFCOL	COL	66.0%	985	4.79	2.47	59.6%	50%▲32
7	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	65.9%	919	4.43	2.29	57.2%	85%▲7.6
8	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	65.5%	1,159	5.45	2.86	59.3%	98%▼1.4
9	Dylan CozensFOTT	OTT	65.0%	1,397	4.17	2.24	63.5%	90%▲3.6
10	Denver BarkeyFPHI	PHI	65.0%	577	3.60	1.94	55.6%	15%▲14
11	Oliver BjorkstrandFTBL	TBL	64.5%	1,091	3.71	2.05	59.6%	20%
12	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	64.3%	1,058	4.32	2.40	64.9%	96%▲16
13	Martin NecasFCOL	COL	64.3%	1,677	4.72	2.63	62.1%	100%▲1.3
14	Mats ZuccarelloFMIN	MIN	64.3%	1,100	4.43	2.47	59.6%	50%▲28
15	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	64.2%	1,444	4.30	2.40	64.0%	92%▲1.7
16	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	64.0%	1,397	4.55	2.57	63.9%	83%▲2.9
17	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	63.9%	1,402	4.95	2.79	59.8%	100%
18	Josh NorrisFBUF	BUF	63.9%	697	4.65	2.62	59.4%	39%▲32
19	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	63.7%	998	3.73	2.12	58.6%	11%▲11
20	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	63.6%	1,727	4.49	2.58	59.5%	98%▼0.8
21	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	63.5%	1,885	5.15	2.95	59.5%	100%▲1.5
22	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	63.3%	1,361	4.23	2.45	65.5%	93%▲7.9
23	Mikko RantanenFDAL	DAL	63.3%	1,291	4.60	2.67	54.2%	99%▲0.7
24	Drake BathersonFOTT	OTT	63.1%	1,371	4.13	2.41	62.4%	97%▲7.4
25	Alex DeBrincatFDET	DET	63.1%	1,517	4.83	2.82	59.3%	100%▲2.6
26	Jordan SpenceDOTT	OTT	62.9%	1,367	3.56	2.10	61.5%	21%▲17
27	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	62.3%	1,565	4.26	2.57	62.6%	100%▲2
28	Darren RaddyshDTBL	TBL	62.3%	1,657	4.43	2.68	61.3%	100%▲3.5
29	Victor OlofssonFCOL/CGY	COL/CGY	62.3%	1,058	3.47	2.10	60.3%	12%▲12
30	Brayden PointFTBL	TBL	62.2%	1,150	4.27	2.59	59.8%	95%▲7.7
31	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	62.2%	1,133	3.61	2.20	58.2%	79%▲2.9
32	Cole CaufieldFMTL	MTL	62.0%	1,473	4.57	2.79	60.5%	100%▲0.9
33	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	62.0%	1,251	4.03	2.47	63.8%	67%▲42
34	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	62.0%	1,342	4.62	2.84	66.2%	97%▲8.5
35	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	61.7%	1,569	4.70	2.91	57.6%	99%▲1.4
36	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	61.6%	1,617	4.21	2.63	59.9%	99%▲1.1
37	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	61.4%	1,336	4.31	2.71	64.0%	68%▲21
38	Patrick KaneFDET	DET	61.3%	1,186	4.56	2.88	58.8%	80%▲0.9
39	Nick SuzukiFMTL	MTL	61.2%	1,707	4.54	2.88	57.6%	100%
40	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	61.1%	1,300	4.63	2.94	61.5%	100%
41	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	61.1%	1,650	4.63	2.95	52.7%	100%▲0.8
42	Evgeni MalkinFPIT	PIT	61.0%	985	4.64	2.96	56.9%	82%▲10
43	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	60.9%	1,539	4.66	2.99	61.5%	96%▲11
44	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	60.9%	1,864	4.32	2.77	58.0%	100%▲1
45	Quinn HughesDMIN/VAN	MIN/VAN	60.6%	2,053	4.34	2.82	59.9%	100%
46	Lucas RaymondFDET	DET	60.6%	1,504	4.36	2.83	58.8%	96%▲10
47	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	60.5%	1,640	4.56	2.97	58.3%	100%
48	Trevor ZegrasFPHI	PHI	60.5%	1,516	4.02	2.62	56.5%	86%▲19
49	Ivan DemidovFMTL	MTL	60.5%	1,271	4.41	2.88	55.1%	92%▲23
50	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	60.5%	2,024	4.70	3.07	57.7%	100%
51	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	60.5%	1,340	4.63	3.02	63.7%	95%▲1.5
52	Brock NelsonFCOL	COL	60.4%	1,592	4.25	2.79	58.3%	87%▼4
53	Andrei KuzmenkoFLAK	LAK	60.1%	776	3.68	2.44	60.6%	11%▲9.8
54	Josh DoanFBUF	BUF	60.1%	1,301	4.07	2.71	57.6%	61%▲44
55	Alex OvechkinFWSH	WSH	60.0%	1,431	4.49	2.99	59.8%	96%▲1.3
56	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	60.0%	914	3.37	2.24	59.8%	8.1%▲7.8
57	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	60.0%	1,114	3.63	2.42	62.4%	—
58	Lane HutsonDMTL	MTL	60.0%	1,949	4.07	2.72	57.4%	99%▲3.1
59	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	59.8%	1,071	3.80	2.55	60.5%	67%▼8.4
60	Troy TerryFANA	ANA	59.8%	1,119	4.41	2.97	59.8%	47%▲34
61	Taylor HallFCAR	CAR	59.7%	1,162	3.89	2.62	62.9%	28%▲21
62	Jared McCannFSEA	SEA	59.7%	855	4.20	2.83	56.5%	71%▲0.9
63	Juraj SlafkovskýFMTL	MTL	59.7%	1,520	4.62	3.12	56.2%	99%▲0.8
64	Gage GoncalvesFTBL	TBL	59.6%	969	3.02	2.05	54.6%	11%▲11
65	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	59.6%	567	4.84	3.28	64.5%	100%▲2.7
66	Matvei MichkovFPHI	PHI	59.5%	1,202	3.58	2.44	56.5%	86%▲23
67	Bobby BrinkFPHI/MIN	PHI/MIN	59.4%	1,031	3.20	2.18	54.7%	14%▲12
68	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	59.4%	1,294	3.97	2.71	56.8%	54%▲37
69	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	59.4%	1,549	4.62	3.15	64.3%	99%▲0.9
70	Danton HeinenFCBJ/PIT	CBJ/PIT	59.4%	522	2.68	1.83	52.6%	0.0%
71	Michael CarconeFUTA	UTA	59.3%	1,005	3.29	2.26	59.6%	5.0%▲4
72	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	59.3%	1,403	4.89	3.36	56.7%	100%▲1.9
73	Sam MalinskiDCOL	COL	59.3%	1,445	3.24	2.23	57.4%	56%▲33
74	Noah CatesFPHI	PHI	59.1%	1,332	3.20	2.22	50.7%	18%▲15
75	Tyson FoersterFPHI	PHI	59.0%	502	3.32	2.31	49.2%	42%▲38
76	Dylan GuentherFUTA	UTA	59.0%	1,374	4.19	2.92	58.9%	99%▲2
77	Owen TippettFPHI	PHI	58.9%	1,364	3.74	2.61	54.5%	78%▼6.7
78	Zach BensonFBUF	BUF	58.8%	1,033	3.64	2.55	54.9%	56%▲44
79	Kirill MarchenkoFCBJ	CBJ	58.7%	1,440	4.04	2.84	58.7%	98%▲7
80	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	58.7%	1,300	3.95	2.78	60.0%	99%▲6.5
81	Leo CarlssonFANA	ANA	58.6%	1,341	4.52	3.20	60.8%	94%▲10
82	Ethen FrankFWSH	WSH	58.4%	759	3.15	2.24	51.8%	3.2%▲3.1
83	Damon SeversonDCBJ	CBJ	58.3%	1,496	3.31	2.36	55.3%	9.4%▲6.2
84	Fabian ZetterlundFOTT	OTT	58.3%	1,059	3.19	2.29	55.8%	13%▲6.6
85	Jason ZuckerFBUF	BUF	58.3%	969	4.11	2.94	58.4%	23%▲18
86	Valeri NichushkinFCOL	COL	58.2%	1,276	3.95	2.83	56.8%	60%
87	Mason MarchmentFCBJ/SEA	CBJ/SEA	58.2%	1,181	3.54	2.54	56.0%	47%▲34
88	William CarrierFCAR	CAR	58.1%	753	2.59	1.86	59.7%	0.1%
89	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	58.1%	1,563	4.25	3.06	56.2%	100%
90	Mavrik BourqueFDAL	DAL	58.1%	1,270	3.24	2.34	53.2%	35%▲31
91	Tim StützleFOTT	OTT	58.0%	1,621	4.19	3.04	57.9%	100%▲0.8
92	Jamie DrysdaleDPHI	PHI	57.9%	1,681	3.36	2.44	52.4%	55%▲46
93	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	57.9%	1,077	3.71	2.70	53.9%	95%▲9.2
94	Ryan HartmanFMIN	MIN	57.8%	1,273	3.56	2.60	54.1%	40%▼17
95	Ville KoivunenFPIT	PIT	57.7%	497	3.00	2.20	58.7%	17%▲17
96	David PerronFOTT/DET	OTT/DET	57.7%	882	2.91	2.14	56.4%	0.2%
97	Luke EvangelistaFNSH	NSH	57.7%	1,346	3.81	2.80	61.0%	70%▲23
98	Joel Eriksson EkFMIN	MIN	57.7%	1,336	4.14	3.04	54.5%	82%▲11
99	Mathew BarzalFNYI	NYI	57.7%	1,674	4.19	3.07	59.0%	83%▲10
100	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.6%	1,217	4.07	2.99	52.2%	93%▲20

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 321 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

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