On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2024-25All situationsThrough 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2024-25: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 67.1% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

613 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2024-25, All situations
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	67.1%	1,528	5.18	2.54	63.1%	55.2%	50.1%	100%
2	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	66.6%	1,108	4.05	2.03	65.8%	55.1%	49.6%	68%▲21
3	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	65.9%	1,476	5.13	2.65	64.9%	56.4%	50.2%	100%▲1.5
4	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	65.7%	1,296	4.47	2.34	67.9%	54.9%	49.2%	96%▲16
5	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	65.1%	1,379	4.83	2.60	63.8%	55.9%	50.0%	98%▼1.4
6	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	64.8%	1,296	4.81	2.61	61.7%	52.9%	50.5%	100%
7	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	64.5%	1,800	5.05	2.77	63.6%	54.5%	50.2%	100%▲0.8
8	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	64.3%	959	3.65	2.03	60.6%	53.7%	49.6%	—
9	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	64.2%	1,250	4.42	2.47	59.5%	53.5%	49.8%	83%▲2.9
10	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	64.0%	948	4.84	2.72	66.0%	54.7%	50.2%	100%▲2.7
11	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	64.0%	1,924	4.52	2.54	63.7%	56.1%	49.9%	100%
12	Mathew BarzalFNYI	NYI	63.9%	610	4.39	2.48	62.8%	50.9%	50.5%	83%▲10
13	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	63.6%	812	3.23	1.85	57.2%	53.6%	49.5%	12%▲12
14	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	63.4%	1,653	4.95	2.85	59.3%	53.6%	50.2%	100%
15	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	63.3%	1,313	4.29	2.49	60.3%	50.0%	50.2%	100%▲2.2
16	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	63.1%	921	4.08	2.38	58.6%	49.7%	49.9%	98%▼0.8
17	Cole PerfettiFWPG	WPG	62.8%	1,245	3.45	2.04	56.4%	53.2%	49.7%	36%▲32
18	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	62.7%	1,090	4.20	2.50	58.3%	53.2%	50.1%	93%▲7.9
19	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	62.6%	1,447	4.43	2.64	63.5%	54.9%	50.2%	73%▲1
20	Josh DoanFUTA	UTA	62.5%	689	3.19	1.92	59.9%	52.6%	49.3%	61%▲44
21	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	62.4%	1,500	3.71	2.23	62.0%	54.7%	49.8%	67%▼8.4
22	Dougie HamiltonDNJD	NJD	62.4%	1,271	4.34	2.62	59.2%	52.2%	50.3%	84%▲12
23	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	62.3%	1,355	3.83	2.32	59.0%	53.3%	49.8%	92%▲1.7
24	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	62.2%	1,473	3.84	2.34	57.6%	53.9%	50.0%	91%▲28
25	Martin NecasFCAR/COL	CAR/COL	62.1%	1,501	4.56	2.78	64.7%	55.0%	50.0%	100%▲1.3
26	Jake GuentzelFTBL	TBL	61.8%	1,599	4.59	2.83	57.7%	53.3%	50.2%	100%
27	Mikko RantanenFCOL/DAL/CAR	COL/DAL/CAR	61.6%	1,742	4.78	2.98	59.9%	54.0%	50.2%	99%▲0.7
28	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	61.5%	1,271	4.28	2.67	55.2%	54.1%	50.0%	93%▲9
29	Nate SchmidtDFLA	FLA	61.3%	1,322	3.05	1.92	58.8%	54.1%	49.4%	4.9%▲4.5
30	Brayden PointFTBL	TBL	61.3%	1,500	4.68	2.95	56.8%	53.6%	50.0%	95%▲7.7
31	Dylan GuentherFUTA	UTA	61.3%	1,190	4.24	2.67	59.1%	52.3%	49.8%	99%▲2
32	Clayton KellerFUTA	UTA	61.2%	1,549	4.24	2.68	60.0%	52.8%	50.0%	100%▲2
33	Vinnie HinostrozaFMIN/NSH	MIN/NSH	61.1%	495	3.11	1.99	53.6%	49.1%	49.9%	0.0%
34	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	61.0%	1,588	4.83	3.09	63.2%	55.2%	50.4%	99%▲0.9
35	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	60.8%	1,357	4.38	2.82	62.8%	55.4%	50.5%	97%▲7.2
36	Jason RobertsonFDAL	DAL	60.8%	1,459	4.37	2.82	57.4%	50.8%	50.3%	100%▲0.5
37	Zachary BolducFSTL	STL	60.7%	922	2.85	1.84	55.0%	50.4%	49.5%	21%▲19
38	Alex LaferriereFLAK	LAK	60.7%	1,273	3.40	2.20	58.8%	55.0%	49.8%	68%▲3.5
39	Jesperi KotkaniemiFCAR	CAR	60.7%	1,097	3.34	2.17	61.1%	54.6%	49.6%	3.2%▲3.1
40	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	60.5%	1,232	4.59	2.99	63.6%	55.0%	50.0%	97%▲8.5
41	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	60.5%	1,701	4.30	2.81	55.0%	53.7%	50.2%	100%▲1.9
42	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	60.5%	1,434	3.66	2.39	57.1%	51.3%	50.0%	79%▲2.9
43	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	60.4%	1,535	4.55	2.98	57.9%	53.1%	50.3%	96%▲11
44	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	60.4%	1,326	4.20	2.75	60.7%	54.7%	50.0%	83%▲4
45	Tim StützleFOTT	OTT	60.4%	1,625	3.86	2.53	61.5%	50.0%	50.0%	100%▲0.8
46	Miro HeiskanenDDAL	DAL	60.4%	1,258	4.14	2.72	58.3%	50.9%	50.2%	100%▲4.5
47	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	60.3%	1,413	4.54	2.98	61.4%	55.2%	50.2%	95%▲1.5
48	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	60.2%	1,750	3.69	2.43	60.9%	50.1%	50.0%	100%
49	Brandt ClarkeDLAK	LAK	60.1%	1,270	3.40	2.26	57.2%	53.3%	49.3%	96%▲11
50	Stefan NoesenFNJD	NJD	60.0%	1,243	4.02	2.68	59.0%	52.6%	49.9%	0.1%
51	Nick SchmaltzFUTA	UTA	59.8%	1,524	4.31	2.90	58.7%	53.1%	50.0%	94%▲4.7
52	Jonathan DrouinFCOL	COL	59.6%	782	4.09	2.77	65.1%	53.7%	50.4%	0.5%
53	Drake BathersonFOTT	OTT	59.6%	1,488	3.86	2.62	57.8%	49.6%	50.1%	97%▲7.4
54	Mats ZuccarelloFMIN	MIN	59.5%	1,356	3.79	2.57	55.4%	49.8%	50.3%	50%▲28
55	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	59.5%	1,295	3.26	2.22	55.0%	50.8%	49.8%	95%▲9.2
56	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	59.5%	1,620	4.01	2.73	61.2%	55.2%	50.5%	99%
57	Alex DeBrincatFDET	DET	59.4%	1,465	4.23	2.89	57.6%	48.7%	50.2%	100%▲2.6
58	Alex TurcotteFLAK	LAK	59.4%	798	2.77	1.89	55.7%	52.9%	49.4%	8.8%▲8.8
59	Corey PerryFEDM	EDM	59.3%	967	3.51	2.41	58.8%	52.8%	49.3%	7.4%▲5.9
60	Lucas RaymondFDET	DET	59.3%	1,540	4.27	2.93	57.2%	48.7%	50.6%	96%▲10
61	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	59.3%	880	3.39	2.33	56.1%	52.2%	49.0%	8.1%▲7.8
62	Timo MeierFNJD	NJD	59.2%	1,429	3.77	2.60	57.8%	52.8%	50.1%	82%▼8
63	Bobby BrinkFPHI	PHI	59.2%	1,172	3.34	2.30	53.5%	51.9%	50.2%	14%▲12
64	Andrei KuzmenkoFCGY/LAK/PHI	CGY/LAK/PHI	59.1%	1,032	3.27	2.26	58.5%	49.9%	50.1%	11%▲9.8
65	Vladislav NamestnikovFWPG	WPG	59.1%	1,177	3.20	2.21	53.2%	53.3%	49.8%	0.1%
66	Erik GustafssonDDET	DET	59.1%	979	3.19	2.21	56.1%	48.3%	49.2%	3.2%▲3.2
67	Matt BoldyFMIN	MIN	59.0%	1,664	3.84	2.67	56.0%	49.5%	50.4%	100%
68	Adam GaudetteFOTT	OTT	58.9%	844	2.95	2.06	56.4%	48.8%	49.3%	0.1%
69	Logan StankovenFDAL/CAR	DAL/CAR	58.9%	1,177	3.86	2.70	58.7%	51.7%	49.6%	67%▲42
70	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	58.9%	1,581	4.39	3.07	53.2%	54.2%	50.1%	99%▲1.4
71	Kirill MarchenkoFCBJ	CBJ	58.8%	1,468	4.09	2.87	57.9%	49.1%	50.3%	98%▲7
72	Viktor ArvidssonFEDM	EDM	58.4%	1,005	3.43	2.45	56.9%	54.7%	49.6%	32%▲23
73	Pierre-Luc DuboisFWSH	WSH	58.4%	1,419	3.84	2.74	56.3%	51.1%	50.3%	41%▲32
74	Gabriel VilardiFWPG	WPG	58.3%	1,288	3.86	2.76	54.6%	52.3%	50.2%	80%▲7.7
75	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	58.3%	1,951	3.67	2.63	54.5%	52.6%	50.0%	99%▲3.3
76	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	58.3%	1,406	4.15	2.97	58.0%	54.5%	50.5%	54%▲37
77	Tommy NovakFNSH/PIT	NSH/PIT	58.2%	714	3.29	2.36	58.4%	49.9%	49.6%	11%▲9.1
78	Maxim TsyplakovFNYI	NYI	58.0%	1,152	3.07	2.22	55.1%	50.0%	50.0%	14%
79	Mark ScheifeleFWPG	WPG	57.9%	1,676	3.98	2.90	52.9%	52.4%	50.2%	100%
80	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	57.8%	1,320	3.86	2.82	59.2%	52.9%	49.8%	11%▲11
81	Victor HedmanDTBL	TBL	57.8%	1,823	4.09	2.99	55.7%	52.7%	50.0%	93%▲11
82	Nico HischierFNJD	NJD	57.7%	1,529	4.39	3.21	56.7%	52.9%	50.3%	98%▲3
83	Mason MarchmentFDAL	DAL	57.7%	951	4.03	2.96	55.3%	50.1%	49.9%	47%▲34
84	David PastrnakFBOS	BOS	57.6%	1,655	4.15	3.06	57.9%	49.7%	50.4%	100%▲1.2
85	Artemi PanarinFNYR	NYR	57.5%	1,575	4.23	3.12	60.8%	48.1%	50.4%	98%▼1.2
86	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	57.5%	2,057	4.29	3.16	57.4%	54.5%	50.2%	100%▲1
87	Darren RaddyshDTBL	TBL	57.5%	1,263	3.50	2.58	55.2%	52.3%	49.6%	100%▲3.5
88	Dylan LarkinFDET	DET	57.5%	1,646	4.22	3.12	55.8%	48.9%	50.6%	96%
89	Jordan SpenceDLAK	LAK	57.5%	1,326	2.88	2.13	58.4%	53.9%	49.3%	21%▲17
90	Matt DucheneFDAL	DAL	57.3%	1,406	4.27	3.18	55.3%	50.0%	50.0%	62%▼17
91	Conor GarlandFVAN	VAN	57.3%	1,511	3.56	2.65	55.5%	50.0%	49.9%	10%▲7.4
92	Alex OvechkinFWSH	WSH	57.3%	1,152	4.30	3.21	57.9%	50.2%	50.0%	96%▲1.3
93	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	57.3%	1,176	3.37	2.51	51.0%	54.3%	50.5%	67%▲26
94	Tom WilsonFWSH	WSH	57.2%	1,517	3.92	2.93	54.2%	51.2%	50.3%	95%▲6.5
95	Jeff SkinnerFEDM	EDM	57.2%	936	3.28	2.46	55.1%	53.0%	49.8%	0.1%
96	Filip ForsbergFNSH	NSH	57.2%	1,527	4.30	3.22	59.1%	49.5%	50.3%	99%▲1.4
97	William NylanderFTOR	TOR	57.1%	1,600	4.40	3.30	55.3%	51.1%	50.0%	99%▼0.9
98	Jakob ChychrunDWSH	WSH	57.1%	1,559	3.50	2.63	56.5%	50.7%	50.0%	99%▼0.6
99	Kyle ConnorFWPG	WPG	57.1%	1,672	3.97	2.99	52.6%	52.3%	50.3%	99%▲1
100	Uvis BalinskisDFLA	FLA	57.1%	1,129	2.74	2.06	57.2%	54.4%	49.3%	4.0%▲3.9

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 307 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

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