On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2024-25Even strengthThrough 82 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2024-25: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 62.5% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

597 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2024-25, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	62.5%	1,224	3.97	2.38	58.9%	55.2%	50.1%	100%
2	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	61.4%	1,193	4.02	2.53	60.5%	56.4%	50.2%	100%▲1.5
3	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	61.3%	925	3.13	1.98	61.3%	55.1%	49.6%	68%▲21
4	Mathew BarzalFNYI	NYI	60.3%	497	3.30	2.17	58.2%	50.9%	50.5%	83%▲10
5	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	60.3%	1,196	3.54	2.34	59.8%	56.4%	50.1%	77%▲9.7
6	Zach HymanFEDM	EDM	59.9%	1,099	3.65	2.44	58.8%	55.9%	50.0%	98%▼1.4
7	Nathan MacKinnonFCOL	COL	59.8%	1,394	3.68	2.47	58.7%	54.5%	50.2%	100%▲0.8
8	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	59.6%	1,009	3.30	2.24	62.4%	54.9%	49.2%	96%▲16
9	Seth JarvisFCAR	CAR	59.5%	976	3.13	2.13	59.6%	55.2%	50.2%	95%▲1.5
10	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	59.4%	1,173	3.17	2.17	55.0%	53.8%	50.2%	51%▲19
11	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	59.2%	1,574	3.54	2.44	59.3%	56.1%	49.9%	100%
12	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	59.2%	983	2.76	1.90	59.9%	55.4%	50.5%	97%▲7.2
13	Alex LaferriereFLAK	LAK	58.6%	1,107	2.84	2.01	55.4%	55.0%	49.8%	68%▲3.5
14	Brandon HagelFTBL	TBL	58.6%	1,271	3.11	2.20	53.3%	53.7%	50.2%	100%▲1.9
15	Josh DoanFUTA	UTA	58.5%	609	2.72	1.93	57.8%	52.6%	49.3%	61%▲44
16	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	58.3%	995	3.25	2.33	55.6%	52.9%	50.5%	100%
17	Nate SchmidtDFLA	FLA	58.2%	1,152	2.60	1.87	56.7%	54.1%	49.4%	4.9%▲4.5
18	Warren FoegeleFLAK	LAK	57.9%	1,113	2.63	1.91	54.3%	54.4%	49.7%	4.0%▲3.9
19	Mark JankowskiFNSH/CAR	NSH/CAR	57.8%	625	2.68	1.96	56.2%	51.2%	49.7%	0.2%
20	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	57.8%	1,113	3.43	2.50	60.0%	55.2%	50.4%	99%▲0.9
21	Cale MakarDCOL	COL	57.8%	1,502	3.26	2.38	56.3%	54.5%	50.2%	100%▲1
22	Mackie SamoskevichFFLA	FLA	57.7%	824	2.76	2.02	54.9%	53.7%	49.6%	—
23	Brady TkachukFOTT	OTT	57.7%	1,015	3.09	2.27	53.8%	50.0%	50.2%	100%▲2.2
24	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	57.6%	1,127	2.75	2.03	56.2%	54.7%	49.9%	4.9%▲4.5
25	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	57.5%	1,176	2.60	1.92	58.2%	55.2%	50.5%	99%
26	Artturi LehkonenFCOL	COL	57.4%	1,115	3.29	2.44	56.3%	54.5%	50.5%	54%▲37
27	Kevin FialaFLAK	LAK	57.4%	1,211	2.84	2.11	56.4%	54.7%	49.8%	67%▼8.4
28	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	57.4%	738	3.17	2.36	58.7%	54.7%	50.2%	100%▲2.7
29	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	57.2%	965	3.03	2.27	52.4%	54.1%	50.0%	93%▲9
30	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	57.2%	1,075	3.31	2.48	50.4%	51.3%	50.4%	93%▲20
31	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	56.9%	1,011	2.75	2.08	57.0%	54.1%	49.7%	64%▲55
32	Joel KivirantaFCOL	COL	56.9%	859	2.36	1.79	51.9%	52.2%	49.8%	0.1%
33	Jordan SpenceDLAK	LAK	56.9%	1,168	2.51	1.90	56.8%	53.9%	49.3%	21%▲17
34	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	56.8%	719	2.39	1.82	54.1%	53.6%	49.5%	12%▲12
35	Uvis BalinskisDFLA	FLA	56.7%	1,015	2.47	1.89	55.4%	54.4%	49.3%	4.0%▲3.9
36	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	56.7%	1,188	3.05	2.33	56.8%	54.9%	50.2%	73%▲1
37	Quinton ByfieldFLAK	LAK	56.7%	1,177	2.73	2.09	55.1%	54.8%	49.8%	86%▲18
38	Nikolaj EhlersFWPG	WPG	56.6%	881	2.81	2.16	52.5%	53.2%	50.1%	93%▲7.9
39	Barrett HaytonFUTA	UTA	56.5%	1,057	3.16	2.43	57.5%	52.9%	49.8%	11%▲11
40	Jesperi KotkaniemiFCAR	CAR	56.5%	973	2.86	2.21	57.9%	54.6%	49.6%	3.2%▲3.1
41	Kaedan KorczakDVGK	VGK	56.4%	590	2.54	1.96	49.2%	52.6%	49.7%	6.7%▲6.5
42	Alex TurcotteFLAK	LAK	56.3%	738	2.45	1.90	53.3%	52.9%	49.4%	8.8%▲8.8
43	Tomas NosekFFLA	FLA	56.3%	510	2.52	1.96	56.1%	53.9%	49.1%	—
44	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.2%	991	3.31	2.58	52.1%	52.7%	50.4%	99%
45	Chris TanevDTOR	TOR	56.2%	1,253	2.49	1.94	47.7%	51.6%	50.3%	6.0%▲5
46	Pierre-Luc DuboisFWSH	WSH	56.1%	1,190	3.07	2.40	52.7%	51.1%	50.3%	41%▲32
47	Nico HischierFNJD	NJD	56.1%	1,103	2.93	2.29	54.7%	52.9%	50.3%	98%▲3
48	Nikita KucherovFTBL	TBL	55.9%	1,295	3.44	2.72	52.0%	53.6%	50.2%	100%
49	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	55.8%	753	2.63	2.08	53.4%	52.2%	49.0%	8.1%▲7.8
50	Sean MonahanFCBJ	CBJ	55.8%	773	3.10	2.45	54.5%	49.5%	50.3%	19%▲13
51	Jonas SiegenthalerDNJD	NJD	55.8%	944	2.30	1.82	51.4%	52.6%	50.3%	3.3%▲2.9
52	Sean WalkerDCAR	CAR	55.8%	1,254	2.91	2.31	60.0%	55.3%	49.5%	60%▼11
53	Eric RobinsonFCAR	CAR	55.8%	936	2.94	2.33	59.2%	55.2%	49.4%	3.2%▲3.1
54	Jesper BrattFNJD	NJD	55.7%	1,120	3.04	2.41	53.1%	53.1%	50.3%	96%▲11
55	Morgan BarronFWPG	WPG	55.7%	670	2.21	1.76	51.0%	52.5%	49.4%	4.8%▲4.7
56	Gustav ForslingDFLA	FLA	55.7%	1,553	2.77	2.20	56.6%	54.4%	50.3%	42%▲18
57	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	55.7%	1,446	2.64	2.10	51.5%	53.4%	49.9%	23%▲20
58	Martin NecasFCAR/COL	CAR/COL	55.6%	1,154	3.19	2.54	58.1%	55.0%	50.0%	100%▲1.3
59	Mikey AndersonDLAK	LAK	55.5%	1,465	2.32	1.86	51.2%	54.2%	50.2%	7.3%▲6.9
60	Dylan HollowayFSTL	STL	55.5%	1,121	2.67	2.14	51.6%	50.8%	49.8%	95%▲9.2
61	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	55.5%	724	2.60	2.08	55.6%	52.9%	49.5%	24%▲20
62	Zachary BolducFSTL	STL	55.5%	815	2.34	1.88	51.0%	50.4%	49.5%	21%▲19
63	Vladislav GavrikovDLAK	LAK	55.5%	1,578	2.44	1.96	54.8%	54.3%	50.0%	41%▼5.7
64	Mitch MarnerFTOR	TOR	55.4%	1,228	3.02	2.42	50.1%	52.5%	50.6%	99%▲1.1
65	Alex IafalloFWPG	WPG	55.4%	814	2.34	1.88	51.5%	52.5%	49.9%	4.3%▲3
66	Jordan KyrouFSTL	STL	55.4%	1,196	2.81	2.26	50.9%	51.3%	50.0%	79%▲2.9
67	Pavel DorofeyevFVGK	VGK	55.4%	1,139	2.74	2.21	53.2%	53.3%	49.8%	92%▲1.7
68	Dmitry OrlovDCAR	CAR	55.4%	1,336	2.74	2.21	59.2%	55.0%	49.9%	35%▲21
69	Devon ToewsDCOL	COL	55.4%	1,542	2.91	2.34	56.1%	54.5%	50.2%	60%▼2.3
70	Emil AndraeDPHI	PHI	55.3%	653	2.59	2.10	51.9%	51.6%	49.6%	8.8%▲8.6
71	Vladislav NamestnikovFWPG	WPG	55.2%	1,008	2.58	2.09	52.0%	53.3%	49.8%	0.1%
72	Brandt ClarkeDLAK	LAK	55.2%	1,112	2.76	2.24	53.6%	53.3%	49.3%	96%▲11
73	Timo MeierFNJD	NJD	55.2%	1,231	2.87	2.33	53.3%	52.8%	50.1%	82%▼8
74	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	55.1%	1,075	3.02	2.46	49.9%	54.3%	50.5%	67%▲26
75	Matthew KniesFTOR	TOR	55.1%	1,100	2.98	2.42	49.9%	52.7%	50.4%	94%▲14
76	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	55.0%	1,173	3.08	2.52	51.3%	54.2%	50.1%	99%▲1.4
77	Viktor ArvidssonFEDM	EDM	55.0%	895	3.01	2.46	55.8%	54.7%	49.6%	32%▲23
78	A.J. GreerFFLA	FLA	55.0%	728	2.39	1.96	53.8%	53.5%	49.0%	7.5%▲5.8
79	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	54.9%	1,008	2.70	2.22	59.9%	55.2%	50.2%	4.3%▲2.7
80	Dylan SambergDWPG	WPG	54.8%	1,096	2.68	2.20	52.2%	52.3%	50.3%	4.0%▲3.9
81	Jacob MoverareDLAK	LAK	54.8%	568	2.44	2.01	52.9%	54.1%	49.5%	0.0%
82	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	54.8%	1,330	2.76	2.27	58.8%	55.1%	50.0%	4.1%▲3.4
83	Kirill KaprizovFMIN	MIN	54.8%	751	2.70	2.23	53.1%	49.7%	49.9%	98%▼0.8
84	Artem ZubDOTT	OTT	54.8%	973	2.41	1.99	50.6%	50.0%	50.3%	10%▲6.1
85	Cole PerfettiFWPG	WPG	54.7%	1,083	2.50	2.07	52.6%	53.2%	49.7%	36%▲32
86	Logan O'ConnorFCOL	COL	54.7%	949	2.23	1.85	53.7%	52.2%	49.8%	0.2%
87	Niko MikkolaDFLA	FLA	54.7%	1,364	2.56	2.12	54.9%	54.1%	49.9%	4.9%▲4.4
88	Darnell NurseDEDM	EDM	54.7%	1,458	2.83	2.34	52.0%	52.9%	49.7%	70%▼12
89	Adam PelechDNYI	NYI	54.7%	1,123	2.47	2.05	56.0%	49.9%	50.2%	3.2%▲3
90	Zach WhitecloudDVGK	VGK	54.6%	1,207	2.58	2.15	51.8%	52.7%	49.5%	7.3%▲6.7
91	John MarinoDUTA	UTA	54.6%	649	3.01	2.51	53.4%	52.8%	50.1%	18%▲13
92	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	54.5%	1,197	2.63	2.19	48.7%	51.6%	50.1%	34%▼15
93	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	54.5%	1,047	2.79	2.32	54.1%	55.3%	50.0%	77%▲15
94	Quinn HughesDVAN	VAN	54.5%	1,443	2.74	2.28	56.1%	50.1%	50.0%	100%
95	Jayden StrubleDMTL	MTL	54.5%	805	2.66	2.22	52.0%	47.9%	49.5%	3.3%▲2.9
96	Cody GlassFPIT/NJD	PIT/NJD	54.5%	759	2.29	1.91	55.1%	48.6%	49.9%	4.9%▲4.5
97	Pavel BuchnevichFSTL	STL	54.4%	1,124	3.06	2.56	48.6%	51.4%	50.5%	36%▲7.7
98	Victor HedmanDTBL	TBL	54.4%	1,409	2.96	2.48	52.3%	52.7%	50.0%	93%▲11
99	Mikko RantanenFCOL/DAL/CAR	COL/DAL/CAR	54.3%	1,338	3.21	2.70	53.9%	54.0%	50.2%	99%▲0.7
100	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	54.3%	1,607	2.72	2.29	51.2%	52.6%	50.0%	99%▲3.3

Minimum sample: 492 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 323 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

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