On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2026-27All situationsThrough 3 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2026-27: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 86.3% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

Early sample: teams have played at most 3 games in 2026-27. Expect big swings.

194 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2026-27, All situations
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	86.3%	42	6.96	1.10	79.8%	100%
2	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	85.1%	36	6.93	1.21	82.2%	64%▲55
3	Mikhail SergachevDUTA	UTA	82.4%	23	4.35	0.93	62.5%	98%▲5.2
4	Macklin CelebriniFSJS	SJS	81.9%	23	5.62	1.24	70.5%	100%▲0.9
5	Jack RoslovicFTOR	TOR	81.4%	33	3.25	0.74	67.4%	34%▲26
6	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	80.7%	33	5.78	1.38	69.6%	83%▲2.9
7	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	80.2%	36	3.87	0.96	60.9%	73%▲1
8	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	79.0%	36	5.94	1.58	74.0%	97%▲8.5
9	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	78.9%	50	5.16	1.38	74.2%	100%
10	Mark ScheifeleFWPG	WPG	78.6%	23	6.57	1.78	66.1%	100%
11	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	78.6%	40	4.72	1.29	72.5%	99%▲0.9
12	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	77.5%	40	3.71	1.08	59.3%	83%▲4
13	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	76.1%	38	4.86	1.52	69.0%	93%▲7.9
14	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	75.9%	42	4.30	1.37	71.4%	100%▲2.7
15	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	75.4%	46	5.34	1.74	61.6%	91%▲28
16	Quinn HughesDMIN	MIN	74.4%	28	3.71	1.28	69.8%	100%
17	Josh MorrisseyDWPG	WPG	74.1%	26	6.85	2.39	62.7%	99%▲3.3
18	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	73.5%	27	5.33	1.93	64.4%	12%▲12
19	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	73.4%	38	5.05	1.83	59.5%	93%▲9
20	Brady TkachukFFLA	FLA	73.4%	36	3.62	1.31	67.2%	100%▲2.2
21	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	72.7%	44	3.28	1.23	62.3%	99%▲1.1
22	Brandon MontourDSEA	SEA	72.4%	24	4.35	1.66	57.4%	83%▲10
23	Luke HughesDNJD	NJD	72.1%	24	5.81	2.25	79.6%	84%▲40
24	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	72.1%	45	5.38	2.08	66.3%	100%▲1.5
25	Jackson BlakeFCAR	CAR	71.3%	41	4.85	1.95	67.1%	68%▲21
26	Brett HowdenFVGK	VGK	69.8%	32	2.86	1.24	53.1%	15%▲15
27	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	69.7%	38	2.99	1.30	60.0%	24%▲20
28	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	69.5%	30	2.69	1.18	67.4%	97%▲7.2
29	Jack HughesFNJD	NJD	69.4%	26	4.62	2.04	77.8%	100%
30	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	68.8%	40	4.91	2.23	57.7%	99%▲1.4
31	Lars EllerFFLA	FLA	67.6%	27	2.33	1.12	63.2%	0.2%
32	Mike MathesonDMTL	MTL	66.0%	25	5.89	3.03	46.9%	85%▼7.5
33	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	65.9%	45	3.21	1.66	65.9%	99%
34	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	65.9%	37	4.56	2.36	55.9%	23%▲20
35	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	65.6%	42	3.24	1.70	60.5%	77%▲9.7
36	Seth JonesDFLA	FLA	64.9%	57	3.34	1.81	63.2%	80%▲32
37	Vladislav GavrikovDNYR	NYR	64.4%	64	3.59	1.98	50.0%	41%▼5.7
38	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	64.4%	30	3.58	1.98	55.9%	67%▲26
39	J.T. MillerFNYR	NYR	63.9%	49	5.36	3.03	59.4%	92%▲7.9
40	Oliver BjorkstrandFNYR	NYR	63.8%	40	3.32	1.89	56.9%	20%
41	Denton MateychukDCBJ	CBJ	63.4%	27	3.69	2.13	46.2%	42%▲40
42	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	63.3%	32	3.09	1.79	58.3%	20%▲13
43	Matthew SchaeferDNYI	NYI	62.7%	28	2.59	1.54	83.0%	100%
44	Brock BoeserFVAN	VAN	62.5%	33	2.48	1.49	58.1%	63%▼5.5
45	Shayne GostisbehereDCAR	CAR	62.0%	42	4.01	2.46	65.9%	96%▲16
46	Hampus LindholmDBOS	BOS	61.9%	40	4.89	3.01	54.7%	16%▲15
47	Rasmus DahlinDBUF	BUF	61.8%	26	3.10	1.91	69.0%	100%▲1
48	Morgan RiellyDTOR	TOR	60.7%	41	3.22	2.08	52.1%	76%▼4.7
49	Kirill MarchenkoFTOR	TOR	60.6%	38	4.34	2.82	62.5%	98%▲7
50	Casey MittelstadtFBOS	BOS	60.2%	29	4.02	2.66	53.6%	14%▲12
51	Sandis VilmanisFFLA	FLA	60.1%	24	3.73	2.48	51.1%	6.4%▲6.3
52	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	59.9%	55	3.79	2.54	56.8%	82%▲13
53	Kasperi KapanenFEDM	EDM	59.5%	37	4.66	3.17	69.4%	7.5%▲7.2
54	Jake WalmanDEDM	EDM	58.1%	29	3.16	2.28	54.4%	33%▲30
55	Will BorgenDBOS	BOS	57.8%	37	4.46	3.26	47.5%	4.1%▲3.8
56	Mika ZibanejadFNYR	NYR	57.6%	59	3.93	2.89	50.0%	98%▲1.1
57	Fraser MintenFBOS	BOS	57.6%	32	4.07	3.00	56.0%	45%▲35
58	David PastrnakFBOS	BOS	57.5%	40	3.35	2.48	63.2%	100%▲1.2
59	Elias LindholmFBOS	BOS	57.2%	32	3.30	2.47	60.0%	43%▲4.6
60	Gabe PerreaultFNYR	NYR	56.7%	43	2.58	1.97	48.4%	53%▲47
61	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	56.6%	43	4.33	3.32	60.8%	99%
62	Philip BrobergDSTL	STL	56.2%	23	4.19	3.26	41.9%	66%▲50
63	Marco RossiFVAN	VAN	55.7%	30	3.99	3.18	62.1%	58%▲12
64	Logan StankovenFCAR	CAR	55.5%	40	3.92	3.14	63.0%	67%▲42
65	Eeli TolvanenFNYR	NYR	55.3%	40	3.33	2.69	44.3%	36%▼9.4
66	Cam FowlerDSTL	STL	55.3%	23	2.35	1.90	46.7%	14%▲1.8
67	Mason LohreiDBOS	BOS	54.9%	41	2.72	2.24	56.8%	22%▲21
68	Rasmus AnderssonDVGK	VGK	54.8%	38	2.72	2.24	52.3%	95%▼3
69	Jonathan AspirotDBOS	BOS	54.7%	33	2.06	1.71	47.5%	4.8%▲4.6
70	Bo HorvatFNYI	NYI	54.4%	23	3.00	2.52	70.6%	91%▲1.7
71	Dylan DeMeloDWPG	WPG	54.4%	23	3.74	3.14	36.7%	5.6%▲5.4
72	Pavel DorofeyevFNYR	NYR	53.9%	47	4.23	3.62	57.6%	92%▲1.7
73	Sean DurziDNYR	NYR	53.8%	63	2.64	2.27	49.0%	37%▲35
74	Ryan SheaDEDM	EDM	53.6%	46	3.10	2.68	55.1%	15%▲9.6
75	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	53.2%	23	3.64	3.20	51.3%	93%▲20
76	JJ PeterkaFBOS	BOS	52.9%	38	3.20	2.85	59.1%	75%▲36
77	Marat KhusnutdinovFBOS	BOS	52.8%	29	3.34	2.99	54.9%	11%▲11
78	Owen PowerDBUF	BUF	52.7%	25	2.43	2.18	54.5%	53%▲29
79	Noah HanifinDVGK	VGK	52.7%	38	2.30	2.06	55.4%	52%▼23
80	Radko GudasDFLA	FLA	52.6%	24	2.32	2.10	56.5%	25%▲22
81	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	52.2%	60	3.89	3.57	53.1%	99%▲6.5
82	Tristan LuneauDANA	ANA	51.6%	27	3.27	3.07	41.4%	29%▲29
83	Morgan GeekieFBOS	BOS	50.9%	37	3.93	3.79	54.2%	97%▲8.6
84	Marcus PetterssonDNYR	NYR	50.7%	67	2.80	2.72	42.6%	5.8%▲5.4
85	Travis KonecnyFPHI	PHI	49.9%	32	3.20	3.21	44.6%	92%▲9.9
86	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	49.9%	32	2.03	2.04	37.1%	34%▼15
87	Easton CowanFTOR	TOR	49.6%	29	3.45	3.52	63.0%	50%▲47
88	Braeden BowmanFVGK	VGK	49.4%	23	3.58	3.66	58.0%	16%▲16
89	Eetu LuostarinenFFLA	FLA	49.1%	30	4.89	5.06	51.6%	11%▲9.1
90	Jordan MartinookFCAR	CAR	49.0%	27	1.85	1.93	59.1%	4.3%▲2.7
91	Parker WotherspoonDVGK	VGK	48.6%	36	2.55	2.69	53.1%	20%▲19
92	Sean KuralyFBOS	BOS	48.2%	26	1.57	1.69	42.9%	0.1%
93	Jeremy LauzonDVGK	VGK	48.1%	34	2.37	2.56	54.3%	24%▲22
94	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	47.6%	42	3.17	3.50	46.2%	50%▲34
95	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	47.5%	41	2.25	2.49	49.3%	15%▲3.8
96	Braden SchneiderDNYR	NYR	47.3%	52	2.13	2.38	33.7%	19%▲17
97	Neal PionkDWPG	WPG	47.2%	25	2.48	2.77	47.4%	32%▲31
98	James HagensFBOS	BOS	46.9%	28	2.11	2.39	54.8%	50%▲42
99	Zach WerenskiDCBJ	CBJ	46.8%	29	2.59	2.95	36.5%	100%
100	Connor MurphyDEDM	EDM	46.5%	43	2.71	3.12	35.1%	5.9%▲5

Minimum sample: 23 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 369 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

How reliable is it?

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