On-ice results

5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders

2026-27Even strengthThrough 3 team games

Expected goals share is the best single on-ice number for "does the play tilt toward the right net when this player is out there?" It weighs every unblocked shot attempt by its chance of scoring, so a point shot through traffic counts for less than a backdoor tap-in.

The board ranks the share, not the raw total, and uses only 5-on-5 play, where every team has the same number of skaters. Rows below the ice-time minimum are hidden; it rises as the season goes on.

Leader in 2026-27: Leon Draisaitl (EDM), 84.1% xGF%.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 Even strength All situations

Early sample: teams have played at most 3 games in 2026-27. Expect big swings.

143 qualified

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5v5 Expected Goals Share (xGF%) Leaders, 2026-27, Even strength
#	Player	Team
1	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	84.1%	31	4.79	0.91	78.8%	100%
2	Brett HowdenFVGK	VGK	80.1%	29	2.89	0.72	58.1%	15%▲15
3	Vasily PodkolzinFEDM	EDM	80.0%	27	5.24	1.31	78.7%	64%▲55
4	Kirill MarchenkoFTOR	TOR	76.5%	28	3.28	1.01	57.1%	98%▲7
5	Jack RoslovicFTOR	TOR	74.0%	27	2.56	0.90	60.5%	34%▲26
6	Carter VerhaegheFFLA	FLA	73.3%	29	2.72	0.99	56.4%	73%▲1
7	Elias PetterssonDVAN	VAN	72.9%	26	2.30	0.85	56.1%	13%▲13
8	Tomas HertlFVGK	VGK	72.8%	23	4.70	1.75	64.0%	83%▲2.9
9	Sam BennettFFLA	FLA	72.4%	31	2.03	0.77	50.0%	83%▲4
10	Evan BouchardDEDM	EDM	71.9%	38	3.32	1.29	72.3%	100%
11	Mattias EkholmDEDM	EDM	70.0%	36	3.10	1.33	68.8%	77%▲9.7
12	Victor OlofssonFVGK	VGK	69.2%	25	4.76	2.12	62.5%	12%▲12
13	Luke SchennDVAN	VAN	68.9%	25	2.71	1.22	62.8%	7.3%▲6.9
14	Aaron EkbladDFLA	FLA	68.8%	25	2.25	1.02	46.9%	50%▲34
15	Matthew TkachukFFLA	FLA	67.2%	24	2.19	1.07	55.2%	100%▲2.7
16	Mitch MarnerFVGK	VGK	66.0%	31	1.91	0.98	60.0%	99%▲1.1
17	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	65.8%	31	2.89	1.50	67.9%	100%▲1.5
18	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	64.5%	30	2.20	1.21	58.0%	24%▲20
19	Shea TheodoreDVGK	VGK	63.6%	33	3.61	2.06	54.8%	91%▲28
20	Brady TkachukFFLA	FLA	63.6%	23	1.78	1.02	52.8%	100%▲2.2
21	Elias LindholmFBOS	BOS	63.2%	28	3.20	1.87	57.1%	43%▲4.6
22	Radko GudasDFLA	FLA	62.9%	23	2.49	1.47	61.9%	25%▲22
23	Sean KuralyFBOS	BOS	62.9%	24	1.68	0.99	48.8%	0.1%
24	David PastrnakFBOS	BOS	62.5%	33	3.08	1.84	60.9%	100%▲1.2
25	Brayden McNabbDVGK	VGK	62.4%	32	3.81	2.29	57.4%	23%▲20
26	Seth JonesDFLA	FLA	61.7%	38	2.21	1.37	58.9%	80%▲32
27	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	61.6%	28	3.12	1.95	60.0%	99%
28	Mika ZibanejadFNYR	NYR	61.5%	44	2.59	1.62	45.3%	98%▲1.1
29	Oliver BjorkstrandFNYR	NYR	60.6%	37	3.18	2.06	55.1%	20%
30	J.T. MillerFNYR	NYR	60.4%	37	3.47	2.27	52.8%	92%▲7.9
31	Dmitry KulikovDFLA	FLA	60.3%	27	2.57	1.69	50.0%	3.2%▲3.1
32	Casey MittelstadtFBOS	BOS	60.2%	28	4.10	2.71	53.6%	14%▲12
33	Sandis VilmanisFFLA	FLA	60.1%	24	3.75	2.49	51.1%	6.4%▲6.3
34	Noah HanifinDVGK	VGK	59.4%	35	2.51	1.71	59.4%	52%▼23
35	Hampus LindholmDBOS	BOS	59.3%	35	3.81	2.61	58.2%	16%▲15
36	Tanner JeannotFBOS	BOS	59.2%	23	1.52	1.05	46.3%	6.5%▲6.1
37	Niko MikkolaDFLA	FLA	59.1%	38	2.23	1.54	55.0%	4.9%▲4.4
38	Denton MateychukDCBJ	CBJ	59.0%	24	2.46	1.70	46.9%	42%▲40
39	Mason LohreiDBOS	BOS	57.5%	37	2.42	1.79	53.5%	22%▲21
40	Nikita ZadorovDBOS	BOS	57.5%	40	2.64	1.95	56.3%	39%▲21
41	Alexis LafrenièreFNYR	NYR	57.5%	45	2.45	1.81	48.4%	82%▲13
42	Alex FormentonFEDM	EDM	57.0%	27	2.37	1.79	54.5%	9.6%▲9.6
43	Max SassonFVAN	VAN	56.4%	26	4.27	3.30	42.9%	4.9%▲4.9
44	JJ PeterkaFBOS	BOS	56.0%	32	2.87	2.26	55.7%	75%▲36
45	Will BorgenDBOS	BOS	55.8%	34	3.21	2.54	53.6%	4.1%▲3.8
46	Connor CliftonDBOS	BOS	55.8%	38	2.49	1.97	56.9%	7.4%▲6.7
47	Morgan RiellyDTOR	TOR	55.0%	33	2.63	2.15	47.5%	76%▼4.7
48	Mark StoneFVGK	VGK	54.8%	27	2.84	2.35	50.9%	93%▲9
49	Pavel DorofeyevFNYR	NYR	54.7%	38	3.63	3.00	50.0%	92%▲1.7
50	Jonathan AspirotDBOS	BOS	54.7%	32	2.12	1.76	47.5%	4.8%▲4.6
51	Gabe PerreaultFNYR	NYR	54.5%	38	2.61	2.18	46.7%	53%▲47
52	Ivan BarbashevFVGK	VGK	54.3%	29	2.38	2.00	55.2%	67%▲26
53	Jeremy LauzonDVGK	VGK	54.2%	31	2.63	2.22	58.5%	24%▲22
54	Liam OhgrenFVAN	VAN	53.8%	29	1.64	1.40	48.9%	17%▲17
55	Tristan LuneauDANA	ANA	53.8%	24	3.22	2.76	40.8%	29%▲29
56	Jake WalmanDEDM	EDM	53.8%	24	2.79	2.40	50.0%	33%▲30
57	Vladislav GavrikovDNYR	NYR	53.7%	54	2.46	2.12	52.1%	41%▼5.7
58	Sam ReinhartFFLA	FLA	53.3%	28	1.35	1.18	55.8%	99%
59	Paul CotterFVAN	VAN	53.3%	24	2.56	2.25	40.5%	14%▲14
60	Jaccob SlavinDCAR	CAR	52.9%	34	2.26	2.01	53.3%	15%▲3.8
61	Pavel ZachaFBOS	BOS	52.7%	29	3.29	2.94	50.9%	77%▲12
62	Morgan GeekieFBOS	BOS	52.7%	31	3.66	3.29	49.2%	97%▲8.6
63	Ryan SheaDEDM	EDM	51.8%	38	2.90	2.69	54.5%	15%▲9.6
64	Adam FoxDNYR	NYR	51.6%	47	2.78	2.60	48.3%	99%▲6.5
65	Marco RossiFVAN	VAN	51.3%	25	3.32	3.14	54.9%	58%▲12
66	Sean DurziDNYR	NYR	51.1%	49	2.28	2.18	53.6%	37%▲35
67	Brock BoeserFVAN	VAN	50.6%	28	1.50	1.46	46.8%	63%▼5.5
68	Marcus PetterssonDNYR	NYR	50.6%	54	2.13	2.08	47.1%	5.8%▲5.4
69	Parker WotherspoonDVGK	VGK	50.1%	34	2.66	2.64	54.8%	20%▲19
70	Fraser MintenFBOS	BOS	49.1%	28	2.54	2.62	60.0%	45%▲35
71	Frank NazarFCHI	CHI	48.7%	28	2.53	2.66	54.9%	54%▲34
72	Rasmus AnderssonDVGK	VGK	48.7%	35	2.30	2.42	50.8%	95%▼3
73	Jordan GreenwayFCHI	CHI	48.6%	25	1.85	1.95	59.0%	0.3%
74	Andrei SvechnikovFCAR	CAR	48.5%	23	2.34	2.48	63.6%	97%▲8.5
75	Jack EichelFVGK	VGK	48.2%	29	2.74	2.94	48.3%	99%▲1.4
76	Kasperi KapanenFEDM	EDM	47.7%	29	3.65	4.00	64.3%	7.5%▲7.2
77	Oliver Ekman-LarssonDTOR	TOR	47.6%	28	2.67	2.94	43.4%	43%▲32
78	Troy StecherDTOR	TOR	47.2%	28	1.78	1.99	40.5%	0.2%
79	James HagensFBOS	BOS	46.9%	27	2.17	2.45	54.8%	50%▲42
80	Nikolaj EhlersFCAR	CAR	46.8%	26	1.96	2.24	50.0%	93%▲7.9
81	Jake McCabeDTOR	TOR	46.6%	24	1.38	1.58	46.5%	34%▼15
82	Filip HronekDVAN	VAN	46.6%	34	2.24	2.57	45.0%	91%▲14
83	Alberts SmitsDNYR	NYR	46.3%	42	2.36	2.74	37.0%	35%▲34
84	Connor MurphyDEDM	EDM	45.9%	38	2.50	2.94	38.5%	5.9%▲5
85	Cole SmithFCHI	CHI	45.4%	26	1.75	2.10	52.5%	0.1%
86	Eeli TolvanenFNYR	NYR	45.0%	31	1.85	2.26	42.6%	36%▼9.4
87	Zeev BuiumDVAN	VAN	44.4%	40	2.59	3.24	47.2%	74%▲54
88	Jalen ChatfieldDCAR	CAR	44.0%	30	2.54	3.24	57.1%	4.1%▲3.4
89	Chris TanevDTOR	TOR	43.6%	31	1.91	2.48	35.1%	6.0%▲5
90	Braden SchneiderDNYR	NYR	43.6%	44	1.94	2.52	35.1%	19%▲17
91	Drew O'ConnorFVAN	VAN	43.3%	26	2.73	3.58	40.4%	5.9%▲4.5
92	Jackson LaCombeDANA	ANA	43.3%	23	2.33	3.05	31.7%	97%▲9.4
93	Will CuylleFNYR	NYR	42.5%	35	1.84	2.48	45.2%	64%
94	Jonathan LekkerimäkiFVAN	VAN	41.7%	23	2.80	3.91	50.0%	25%▲25
95	Tom WillanderDVAN	VAN	41.7%	37	2.63	3.69	31.1%	25%▲24
96	Artyom LevshunovDCHI	CHI	41.5%	36	1.86	2.63	43.7%	45%▲43
97	Sam RinzelDCHI	CHI	41.1%	34	2.34	3.35	53.1%	33%▲32
98	Matvei MichkovFPHI	PHI	40.6%	25	1.28	1.87	42.6%	86%▲23
99	Ian ColeDCHI	CHI	40.3%	24	1.64	2.43	47.5%	4.9%▲4.3
100	Darren RaddyshDTOR	TOR	39.8%	33	2.21	3.35	50.0%	100%▲3.5

Minimum sample: 23 min (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 420 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

50% is break-even. 55% means the skater's team took 55% of the expected goals while he was on the ice.

How reliable is it?

On-ice xGF% is moderately repeatable: split-half r ≈ 0.29 at about 7 xG per half. Treat gaps of 2-3 points between players as noise before about 500 minutes.

How our expected goals model works →

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5v5 xGF% leaderboard

How to read it

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