How to win hits and blocks in banger leagues

What it tells you

Each projection is the player’s rate per 60 minutes, times expected ice time, times a Banger Environment Index for the game. Rates are recency-weighted, carry part of last season and are shrunk toward the position average. The environment index reflects how many hits an opponent absorbs or how many shot attempts it takes, shrunk toward the league average; typical values run from about 0.89 to 1.06 for hits and 0.91 to 1.03 for blocks. Home skaters get credited about 4% more hits, and road skaters block about 3% more.

Tested on a full season it was not fitted on (46,636 skater-games), the model beat a naive baseline modestly, which is honest for single games, and its probabilities were well calibrated. Past dates show how the projections did against results.

• Tables: game environments, top forwards and top defensemen by expected hits or blocks, with expected TOI, rate per 60, environment and P(3+ hits) or P(2+ blocks). “Show all” expands to every projected skater.
• Lineups come from each team’s latest game, not announced lines, so late scratches can still appear.
• Opponent Splits (hits and blocks views) list past player splits against each team, with a reality check: those splits mostly did not repeat the next season, so treat them as history.
• Arena-adjusted hits compares raw and adjusted totals and flags home-scorer mirages using home and road rates.

Step by step

1. 1

   Step 1: Open tonight’s projections

   Start with Hits Tonight or Blocks Tonight for today’s slate. Date pages cover the coming week for planning.

   Hits Tonight →
2. 2

   Step 2: Find the friendly games

   Scan “Game environments”. An index above about 1.04 marks a game with more hit or block chances than usual.

3. 3

   Step 3: Sort players by chance of a big night

   Compare expected totals and P(3+ hits) or P(2+ blocks). Defensemen dominate blocks; forwards and defensemen both lead hits.

4. 4

   Step 4: Check who is available

   Low-rostered names with high projections are your streamers. For several nights, use Category Catch-Up with hits and blocks marked as needs.

   Hits + blocks streamers →
5. 5

   Step 5: Confirm lineups before lock

   Projections use the last game’s lineup. Check morning lines and injuries so a scratched player does not cost you the category.

   Line combinations today →

In category leagues

In category leagues a hits win counts the same as a goals win, and hits and blocks are much easier to buy. A third-pair defenseman who blocks two shots a night costs nothing on waivers and can swing a category that a star forward barely touches. Weekly, it is often cheaper to dominate hits and blocks and compete in two or three scoring categories than to chase goals.

In Who Should I Start, choose the Banger profile (G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK) or Hits & blocks (HIT, BLK, PIM) so peripheral value is weighed equally with scoring. Use focus on hits or blocks when that is the only category still close.

In points leagues

In points leagues, hits and blocks are usually worth a fraction of a point each (ESPN’s default is 0.1 per hit and 0.5 per block), so they rarely decide a start alone. They do lift defensemen and grinders who play big minutes: three blocks are worth more than a shot on goal in many formats.

Check your league’s values in Who Should I Start with your league’s scoring loaded, and use these pages to break ties between similar players.

Tactics that win

• Stream defensemen for blocks

  Top-four defensemen on teams that spend time defending rack up blocks. Look for high expected TOI and a strong environment.

• Use the odds, not just the average

  P(3+ hits) shows the chance of a category-swinging night. Two players with the same average can differ a lot here.

• Read arena bias with care

  Use Adjusted Hits to spot players whose totals are inflated at home, before you trade for them.

• Stack games, not just matchups

  Over a week, games played matters more than one friendly opponent. Use the Category Week Planner for effective games in HIT and BLK.

Mistakes to avoid

• Trusting past player-vs-team splits

  The matchup pages say it plainly: big past splits mostly did not repeat. Use them as history, not a forecast.

• Forgetting late scratches

  Projections assume the last game’s lineup. Check lines before lock.

• Benching scoring for one hit

  Hits and blocks are one or two categories. Do not punt goals and assists to gain a fraction of a hit.

• Using raw season totals

  Raw totals mix role, games and arena counting. Rates and expected TOI are a better guide.

Frequently asked questions