Who to start · 2025-26
Elvis Merzlikins vs Mackenzie Blackwood
In 2025-26, Elvis Merzlikins posted a .883 save percentage to Mackenzie Blackwood's .903.
Against our expected-goals model, Merzlikins saved −7.7 goals and Blackwood +5.5.
This week Merzlikins has 1 game left (about 0.0 expected starts); Blackwood has 1 left (about 0.2 expected starts). We project Blackwood for 0.3 ESPN points to Merzlikins's 0.0.
Mackenzie Blackwood has the better number in 9 of the 11 stats both are ranked on.
Merzlikins's biggest edges: Overtime losses 3, High-danger save % .831.
Blackwood's biggest edges: Goals-against average 2.50, Save % .903, Goals saved above expected +5.5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 W, .871 SV%.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Elvis Merzlikins
0.51
fantasy points per game
Mackenzie Blackwood
2.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mackenzie Blackwood has the edge.
| Points per game from | Merzlikins | Blackwood |
|---|---|---|
| Wins (+4) | 1.87 | 2.36 |
| Goals against (-2) | -6.33 | -4.62 |
| Saves (+0.2) | 4.78 | 4.32 |
| Shutouts (+3) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| OT losses (+1) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Merzlikins vs Blackwood
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2024-25: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Merzlikins | Blackwood |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | CBJ 3–7 COL | 21/28 SV | 27/30 SV |
| 2024-11-05 | CBJ 1–2 SJS | 25/27 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2024-02-17 | CBJ 4–3 SJS | 28/31 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2023-02-14 | CBJ 2–3 NJD | 29/32 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2022-10-30 | CBJ 1–7 NJD | 46/53 SV | 0/0 SV |
| 2020-02-16 | CBJ 3–4 NJD | 23/26 SV | 52/55 SV |
| 2020-01-18 | CBJ 5–0 NJD | 41/41 SV | 13/14 SV |
| 2019-12-21 | CBJ 5–1 NJD | 0/0 SV | 0/0 SV |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Elvis Merzlikins
3games (1 left)
0.0proj. ESPN pts
About 0.0 expected starts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to GLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 6th-most FP to GSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT4% to start0.0 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Mackenzie Blackwood
2games (1 left)
0.3proj. ESPN pts
About 0.2 expected starts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 16th-most FP to GLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL20% to start0.3 ptsOpp allows 13th-fewest FP to GSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Elvis Merzlikins or Mackenzie Blackwood?
- In 2025-26, Elvis Merzlikins posted a .883 save percentage to Mackenzie Blackwood's .903. Against our expected-goals model, Merzlikins saved −7.7 goals and Blackwood +5.5. Confirm the starter on game day; workload and back-to-backs decide most goalie starts.
- Who is better, Elvis Merzlikins or Mackenzie Blackwood?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mackenzie Blackwood leads in 9 of 11 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Merzlikins and Blackwood done against each other?
- In 8 games against each other in our data, Merzlikins's team went 3–5.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →