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Draw Equity Leaders (Faceoff Value per 100 Draws)

Name: Draw Equity Leaders (Faceoff Value per 100 Draws) (2023-24)
Creator: Edgehalla

2023-245-on-5Through 82 team games

Not every faceoff is worth the same. Winning a 5-on-5 draw in either end zone is worth about +0.019 net expected goals over the next 20 seconds; a neutral-zone win is worth about +0.007. Draw Equity adds up (win − 0.5) × that value for every draw a player takes.

This board ranks Draw Equity per 100 draws, so a centre who takes 1,500 draws is not rewarded just for volume. The total column is the season value in goals.

Leader in 2023-24: Jeff Carter (PIT), +0.190 DrEq/100.

Season2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2023-24

Strength5-on-5 All situations

154 qualified

Show

Draw Equity Leaders (Faceoff Value per 100 Draws), 2023-24, 5-on-5
#	Player	Team		Draws			OZ+DZ draws
1	Jeff CarterFPIT	PIT	+0.190	256	+0.49	66.0%	205	—
2	Michael McLeodFNJD	NJD	+0.174	494	+0.86	65.4%	310	—
3	Jamie BennFDAL	DAL	+0.144	473	+0.68	62.4%	346	22%▲18
4	Nico SturmFSJS	SJS	+0.131	671	+0.88	60.5%	467	0.1%
5	Derek RyanFEDM	EDM	+0.120	258	+0.31	61.2%	174	—
6	John TavaresFTOR	TOR	+0.114	997	+1.13	59.6%	660	96%▲9.3
7	Elias LindholmFCGY/VAN	CGY/VAN	+0.107	909	+0.97	57.3%	655	43%▲4.7
8	Sidney CrosbyFPIT	PIT	+0.099	1,389	+1.38	58.0%	873	100%▲2.4
9	Luke GlendeningFTBL	TBL	+0.095	709	+0.67	58.5%	459	0.0%
10	Jordan StaalFCAR	CAR	+0.092	1,060	+0.98	58.9%	638	20%▲13
11	Noel AcciariFPIT	PIT	+0.091	421	+0.38	55.8%	303	3.3%▲3.1
12	Leon DraisaitlFEDM	EDM	+0.087	955	+0.83	57.5%	693	100%
13	Erik HaulaFNJD	NJD	+0.086	672	+0.58	57.9%	455	12%▲8.7
14	William KarlssonFVGK	VGK	+0.086	714	+0.61	56.4%	488	24%▲20
15	Claude GirouxFOTT	OTT	+0.084	613	+0.51	55.8%	441	30%▲20
16	Vincent TrocheckFNYR	NYR	+0.083	1,019	+0.84	57.3%	724	88%▼5.4
17	Aleksander BarkovFFLA	FLA	+0.082	692	+0.57	56.4%	380	97%▲7
18	Roope HintzFDAL	DAL	+0.082	492	+0.40	56.9%	336	84%▲7.1
19	Radek FaksaFDAL	DAL	+0.080	394	+0.32	56.3%	233	0.1%
20	Tomas HertlFSJS/VGK	SJS/VGK	+0.078	700	+0.54	56.9%	480	84%▲3.2
21	Sean MonahanFMTL/WPG	MTL/WPG	+0.077	847	+0.65	56.9%	582	19%▲13
22	J.T. MillerFVAN	VAN	+0.076	1,005	+0.76	56.2%	657	92%▲7.7
23	Kevin HayesFSTL	STL	+0.075	711	+0.53	56.8%	505	0.0%
24	Christian DvorakFMTL	MTL	+0.072	273	+0.20	56.4%	180	16%▲13
25	Nico HischierFNJD	NJD	+0.071	983	+0.70	55.8%	595	97%▲2.3
26	Jean-Gabriel PageauFNYI	NYI	+0.069	863	+0.60	56.8%	577	12%▲11
27	Anze KopitarFLAK	LAK	+0.063	1,018	+0.65	56.1%	694	0.5%
28	Tyler SeguinFDAL	DAL	+0.060	460	+0.27	57.6%	314	22%▲19
29	Sam CarrickFANA/EDM	ANA/EDM	+0.059	515	+0.30	54.2%	323	0.1%
30	Boone JennerFCBJ	CBJ	+0.058	742	+0.43	54.2%	484	21%▲16
31	Colton SissonsFNSH	NSH	+0.057	811	+0.46	54.5%	522	3.3%▲3.1
32	Steven StamkosFTBL	TBL	+0.056	477	+0.27	56.2%	349	94%▼4.2
33	Dylan LarkinFDET	DET	+0.055	891	+0.49	55.1%	562	96%
34	John BeecherFBOS	BOS	+0.055	384	+0.21	56.5%	212	0.1%
35	Jake EvansFMTL	MTL	+0.054	781	+0.42	54.3%	522	5.7%▲5.2
36	Matt DucheneFDAL	DAL	+0.053	539	+0.29	56.4%	373	62%▼17
37	Ryan O'ReillyFNSH	NSH	+0.052	1,031	+0.54	55.4%	718	84%▲5
38	Adam HenriqueFANA/EDM	ANA/EDM	+0.050	692	+0.34	55.3%	472	0.5%
39	Michael McCarronFNSH	NSH	+0.049	616	+0.30	54.7%	353	7.3%▲6.9
40	Barclay GoodrowFNYR	NYR	+0.047	531	+0.25	55.4%	325	0.1%
41	David KampfFTOR	TOR	+0.047	597	+0.28	53.9%	395	0.0%
42	Andrew CoppFDET	DET	+0.045	818	+0.37	53.8%	526	9.2%▲7.8
43	Teddy BluegerFVAN	VAN	+0.043	578	+0.25	54.3%	350	4.8%▲4.6
44	Mark KastelicFOTT	OTT	+0.043	336	+0.14	53.3%	219	13%▲12
45	Kevin StenlundFFLA	FLA	+0.043	588	+0.25	54.1%	371	0.1%
46	Bo HorvatFNYI	NYI	+0.043	1,014	+0.43	53.7%	719	90%▲1.2
47	Lars EllerFPIT	PIT	+0.042	708	+0.30	53.1%	490	0.2%
48	Ryan Nugent-HopkinsFEDM	EDM	+0.040	388	+0.16	52.1%	282	77%▲15
49	Pavel ZachaFBOS	BOS	+0.037	741	+0.27	53.4%	532	78%▲13
50	Anton LundellFFLA	FLA	+0.036	735	+0.27	54.0%	443	46%▲31
51	Connor McDavidFEDM	EDM	+0.036	786	+0.28	51.8%	508	100%▲1.5
52	Casey CizikasFNYI	NYI	+0.036	518	+0.18	53.7%	306	0.1%
53	Nick PaulFTBL	TBL	+0.033	692	+0.23	52.9%	448	8.1%▲7.7
54	Ryan JohansenFCOL	COL	+0.030	585	+0.18	51.8%	404	—
55	Alexander KerfootFARI	ARI	+0.029	581	+0.17	50.9%	401	3.2%▲3.1
56	Charlie CoyleFBOS	BOS	+0.028	989	+0.27	52.3%	685	49%▼11
57	Jack DruryFCAR	CAR	+0.028	587	+0.16	54.5%	379	5.6%▲5.4
58	Sean CouturierFPHI	PHI	+0.027	959	+0.26	53.7%	637	9.2%▲7.2
59	Nick FolignoFCHI	CHI	+0.027	246	+0.07	52.8%	211	4.1%▲3.6
60	Auston MatthewsFTOR	TOR	+0.027	1,107	+0.29	52.8%	669	99%
61	Sebastian AhoFCAR	CAR	+0.026	752	+0.19	51.7%	523	99%▲1.2
62	Robert ThomasFSTL	STL	+0.025	1,113	+0.28	52.5%	740	93%▲20
63	Chandler StephensonFVGK	VGK	+0.023	802	+0.19	51.6%	578	17%▲13
64	Max DomiFTOR	TOR	+0.023	377	+0.09	50.4%	248	5.8%▲4.6
65	Mikko RantanenFCOL	COL	+0.022	325	+0.07	51.4%	316	99%▲0.5
66	Josh NorrisFOTT	OTT	+0.022	519	+0.11	52.0%	315	39%▲32
67	Nick SuzukiFMTL	MTL	+0.019	1,043	+0.20	51.7%	663	100%▲0.5
68	Mikael BacklundFCGY	CGY	+0.019	1,151	+0.21	51.3%	753	14%▲9.3
69	Ross ColtonFCOL	COL	+0.019	721	+0.13	52.1%	453	8.1%▲7.8
70	Jesperi KotkaniemiFCAR	CAR	+0.018	576	+0.10	52.1%	362	3.2%▲3.1
71	Dylan StromeFWSH	WSH	+0.018	966	+0.17	50.7%	650	83%▲11
72	Phillip DanaultFLAK	LAK	+0.017	858	+0.15	52.3%	520	4.9%▲4.5
73	Mika ZibanejadFNYR	NYR	+0.011	864	+0.10	51.4%	511	98%▲1.4
74	Nick BjugstadFARI	ARI	+0.011	881	+0.09	50.6%	550	0.1%
75	Elias PetterssonFVAN	VAN	+0.009	671	+0.06	50.5%	463	87%▼5.5
76	Shane PintoFOTT	OTT	+0.008	446	+0.04	51.1%	257	37%▲22
77	Anthony CirelliFTBL	TBL	+0.006	681	+0.04	51.1%	362	51%▲19
78	Ryan McLeodFEDM	EDM	+0.006	606	+0.04	51.2%	331	26%▲20
79	Nick BoninoFNYR	NYR	+0.006	302	+0.02	51.7%	209	—
80	Joe PavelskiFDAL	DAL	+0.005	580	+0.03	51.6%	412	—
81	Alexander WennbergFNYR/SEA	NYR/SEA	+0.004	844	+0.04	48.1%	577	25%▼1.6
82	Jason DickinsonFCHI	CHI	+0.001	883	+0.01	51.2%	551	3.2%▲3
83	Frederick GaudreauFMIN	MIN	−0.002	396	−0.01	49.2%	267	0.2%
84	Justin DanforthFCBJ	CBJ	−0.003	265	−0.01	50.2%	204	0.0%
85	Jonny BrodzinskiFNYR	NYR	−0.004	287	−0.01	49.1%	170	0.0%
86	Mason McTavishFANA	ANA	−0.004	692	−0.03	51.7%	438	51%▲36
87	Sean KuralyFCBJ	CBJ	−0.006	443	−0.03	49.4%	279	0.2%
88	Adam LowryFWPG	WPG	−0.007	1,042	−0.07	49.0%	613	5.7%▲5.5
89	Wyatt JohnstonFDAL	DAL	−0.007	536	−0.04	50.2%	354	100%▲0.9
90	Barrett HaytonFARI	ARI	−0.007	302	−0.02	50.3%	197	11%▲11
91	Pierre-Luc DuboisFLAK	LAK	−0.007	822	−0.06	49.1%	554	42%▲33
92	Luke KuninFSJS	SJS	−0.008	359	−0.03	48.7%	248	0.0%
93	Evgeni MalkinFPIT	PIT	−0.009	762	−0.07	48.2%	445	82%▲11
94	Nazem KadriFCGY	CGY	−0.009	937	−0.08	48.3%	589	71%▼9
95	Ryan PoehlingFPHI	PHI	−0.010	728	−0.07	50.4%	449	6.7%▲5.1
96	Nicolas RoyFVGK	VGK	−0.012	592	−0.07	47.6%	342	4.9%▲4.7
97	Scott LaughtonFPHI	PHI	−0.015	733	−0.11	49.5%	469	5.6%▲5.5
98	Mark ScheifeleFWPG	WPG	−0.017	1,024	−0.17	48.0%	737	99%
99	Yanni GourdeFSEA	SEA	−0.018	901	−0.16	48.1%	586	4.9%▲4
100	Jared McCannFSEA	SEA	−0.018	253	−0.04	48.2%	171	72%▲1.9

Minimum sample: 246 draws (it scales with games played and sequence coverage). 402 below the minimum are hidden.

How to read it

Per 100 draws, in goals. +0.10 means roughly one extra goal for his team every 1,000 draws compared with a coin-flip centre.

How reliable is it?

Faceoff win rate is reliable (split-half r ≈ 0.8 over a season). What happens after the draw is not a skill (r ≈ 0.00), so it is not part of the stat.

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