2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Samuel Sr. and Wicks in PPR. Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.5 projected PPR points; a 22.3 implied team total vs 18.0; SEA allows the fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Samuel Sr.. In standard scoring the call flips to Samuel Sr..
Deebo Samuel Sr.SFWR@ SEA10.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.4 · ceiling 21
Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.5 projected PPR points; a 22.3 implied team total vs 18.0; SEA allows the fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Medium
Dontayvion WicksPHIWR@ JAX10.7 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.6 · ceiling 20
Too close to call: 10.5 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; a 18.0 implied team total vs 22.3; JAX allows the 6th-most WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartDeebo Samuel Sr. stats and usageDontayvion Wicks stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Samuel Sr. and Wicks in PPR. Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.5 projected PPR points; a 22.3 implied team total vs 18.0; SEA allows the fewest WR points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Samuel Sr.. In standard scoring the call flips to Samuel Sr..
Deebo Samuel Sr.: his 90th-percentile outcome is 21 PPR points against 20 for Dontayvion Wicks, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Deebo Samuel Sr.: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Samuel Sr. 10.8, Wicks 10.7; half-PPR: Samuel Sr. 9.0, Wicks 8.7; standard: Samuel Sr. 7.3, Wicks 6.7 (points if he plays).
