2026 season · Week 5 · WR
Toss-up between Waddle and Washington in PPR. Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Waddle's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (35% → 16%); a 23.0 implied team total vs 17.8. In standard scoring the call flips to Waddle.
Jaylen WaddleDENWR@ LAC10.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.5 · ceiling 21
Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Waddle's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (35% → 16%); a 23.0 implied team total vs 17.8.
Medium
Malik WashingtonMIAWRvs CIN10.8 PPR pts
Floor 3 · median 9.7 · ceiling 20
Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Waddle's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (35% → 16%); a 17.8 implied team total vs 23.0.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartJaylen Waddle stats and usageMalik Washington stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Waddle and Washington in PPR. Too close to call: 10.6 vs 10.6 projected PPR points; Waddle's target share has fallen 2 straight weeks (35% → 16%); a 23.0 implied team total vs 17.8. In standard scoring the call flips to Waddle.
Jaylen Waddle: his 90th-percentile outcome is 21 PPR points against 20 for Malik Washington, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Malik Washington: a floor (10th percentile) of 3 PPR points vs 3, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Waddle 10.8, Washington 10.8; half-PPR: Waddle 8.8, Washington 8.7; standard: Waddle 6.9, Washington 6.5 (points if he plays).
