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NHL Stack Finder: Monday, Nov 2

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Monday, Nov 2 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: SJS PP1 (Wennberg–Cagnoni–Smith–Celebrini–Chernyshov) vs CGY.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1SJSPP1vs CGY0.58 xG

    Alexander Wennberg25%, Luca Cagnoni56%, Will Smith95%, Macklin Celebrini100%, Igor Chernyshov52%

    3.7 min/game · 9.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY shorthanded time +23%
    • CGY PK xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  2. #2COLL1vs CHI0.57 xG

    Artturi Lehkonen57%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Martin Necas100%

    10.0 min/game · 3.67 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .28
  3. #3DETL1vs FLA0.54 xG

    Andrew Copp9.2%, Alex DeBrincat100%, Lucas Raymond96%

    14.2 min/game · 2.33 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
    • DK correlation .28
  4. #4FLAL2vs DET0.49 xG

    Eetu Luostarinen12%, Anton Lundell46%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%

    7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  5. #5FLAL1vs DET0.49 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett84%, Matthew Tkachuk100%

    9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  6. #6BOSL2vs VGK0.46 xG

    Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%

    10.9 min/game · 2.85 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27
  7. #7CGYL1vs SJS0.46 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Matt Coronato40%, Matvei Gridin40%

    10.5 min/game · 2.40 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  8. #8SJSL1vs CGY0.42 xG

    Mason Marchment47%, Will Smith95%, Macklin Celebrini100%

    12.1 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .30
  9. #9CGYL2vs SJS0.40 xG

    Mikael Backlund14%, Joel Farabee11%, Samuel Honzek15%

    8.3 min/game · 2.66 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  10. #10BOSL1vs VGK0.39 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, JJ Peterka75%

    11.0 min/game · 2.40 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .29

By game

VGK @ BOS

  • BOSL2vs VGK0.46 xG

    Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, Casey Mittelstadt14%

    10.9 min/game · 2.85 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27
  • BOSL1vs VGK0.39 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, JJ Peterka75%

    11.0 min/game · 2.40 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .29
  • VGKL2vs BOS0.39 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Ivan Barbashev68%, Jack Eichel99%

    8.8 min/game · 3.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (94% to start)
    • Swayman .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .28
  • VGKPP1vs BOS0.36 xG

    Mark Stone93%, Tomas Hertl84%, Shea Theodore91%, Jack Eichel99%, Mitch Marner99%

    3.6 min/game · 7.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • BOS shorthanded time +4%
    • BOS PK xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (94% to start)
    • Swayman .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .18
  • VGKL3vs BOS0.35 xG

    Tomas Hertl84%, Victor Olofsson14%, Trevor Connelly33%

    6.8 min/game · 4.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (94% to start)
    • Swayman .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • BOSL3vs VGK0.24 xG

    Marat Khusnutdinov11%, Fraser Minten47%, James Hagens50%

    9.2 min/game · 1.82 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27
  • VGKL1vs BOS0.23 xG

    William Karlsson24%, Mitch Marner99%, Brett Howden16%

    8.8 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (94% to start)
    • Swayman .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27
  • BOSL4vs VGK0.23 xG

    Sean Kuraly0.2%, Tanner Jeannot6.5%, Mark Kastelic13%

    7.8 min/game · 2.00 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • VGK 5v5 xGA/60 −14%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
    • DK correlation .29
  • BOSPP1vs VGK0.17 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha78%, Morgan Geekie96%, Mason Lohrei22%

    2.3 min/game · 7.01 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • VGK shorthanded time −3%
    • VGK PK xGA/60 −11%
    • vs Carter Hart .889 (66% to start)
    • Hart .880 on other shots
    • Together 1 of last 3
    • DK correlation .19
  • VGKL4vs BOS0.13 xG

    Nic Dowd3.2%, Marc Gatcomb5.7%, Braeden Bowman16%

    5.5 min/game · 1.83 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • BOS 5v5 xGA/60 −1%
    • vs Jeremy Swayman .909 (94% to start)
    • Swayman .848 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3

DET @ FLA

  • DETL1vs FLA0.54 xG

    Andrew Copp9.2%, Alex DeBrincat100%, Lucas Raymond96%

    14.2 min/game · 2.33 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
    • DK correlation .28
  • FLAL2vs DET0.49 xG

    Eetu Luostarinen12%, Anton Lundell46%, Sandis Vilmanis6.4%

    7.1 min/game · 4.23 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  • FLAL1vs DET0.49 xG

    Carter Verhaeghe72%, Sam Bennett84%, Matthew Tkachuk100%

    9.7 min/game · 3.10 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  • DETL3vs FLA0.35 xG

    Keegan Kolesar5.2%, Michael Rasmussen0.1%, Marco Kasper28%

    7.2 min/game · 2.95 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
  • FLAPP1vs DET0.30 xG

    Aleksander Barkov97%, Seth Jones80%, Sam Reinhart99%, Matthew Tkachuk100%, Brady Tkachuk100%

    2.3 min/game · 7.16 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET shorthanded time −22%
    • DET PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .10
  • DETL2vs FLA0.26 xG

    J.T. Compher4.0%, Viktor Arvidsson33%, Emmitt Finnie28%

    9.7 min/game · 1.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
    • DK correlation .27
  • DETPP1vs FLA0.17 xG

    Andrew Copp9.2%, Viktor Arvidsson33%, Alex DeBrincat100%, Moritz Seider100%, Lucas Raymond96%

    2.3 min/game · 5.07 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA shorthanded time +10%
    • FLA PK xGA/60 −12%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
    • DK correlation .19
  • DETL4vs FLA0.17 xG

    Mason Appleton0.1%, Nate Danielson18%, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård21%

    5.0 min/game · 2.00 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • FLA 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Jacob Markstrom .885 (69% to start)
    • Markstrom .811 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 1
    • DK correlation .29
  • FLAL3vs DET0.15 xG

    Aleksander Barkov97%, Sam Reinhart99%, Brady Tkachuk100%

    5.8 min/game · 1.64 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  • FLAL4vs DET0.12 xG

    Lars Eller0.2%, Garnet Hathaway4.8%, Bokondji Imama0.2%

    4.0 min/game · 1.77 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • DET 5v5 xGA/60 +4%
    • vs John Gibson .902 (76% to start)
    • Gibson .870 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2

COL @ CHI

  • COLL1vs CHI0.57 xG

    Artturi Lehkonen57%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Martin Necas100%

    10.0 min/game · 3.67 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .28
  • CHIL1vs COL0.33 xG

    Jordan Greenway0.3%, Cole Smith0.1%, Ryan Greene10%

    11.1 min/game · 2.20 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • COL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Mackenzie Blackwood .904 (57% to start)
    • Blackwood .840 on transition shots
    • Together 3 of last 3
  • CHIL2vs COL0.26 xG

    Patrick Kane80%, Frank Nazar54%, Roman Kantserov58%

    9.1 min/game · 2.46 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • COL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Mackenzie Blackwood .904 (57% to start)
    • Blackwood .840 on transition shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • COLPP1vs CHI0.25 xG

    Gabriel Landeskog50%, Nathan MacKinnon100%, Martin Necas100%, Cale Makar100%, T.J. Hughes26%

    4.0 min/game · 4.61 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CHI shorthanded time −7%
    • CHI PK xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .19
  • COLL2vs CHI0.17 xG

    Nazem Kadri71%, Brock Nelson88%, Gabriel Landeskog50%

    7.5 min/game · 1.44 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .29
  • CHIL3vs COL0.14 xG

    Teuvo Teravainen13%, Tyler Bertuzzi62%, Anton Frondell72%

    7.4 min/game · 1.66 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • COL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Mackenzie Blackwood .904 (57% to start)
    • Blackwood .840 on transition shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27
  • COLL3vs CHI0.14 xG

    Jaden Schwartz11%, Fedor Svechkov8.0%, T.J. Hughes26%

    3.7 min/game · 2.39 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 3
  • CHIL4vs COL0.10 xG

    Ryan Donato9.9%, Nick Lardis23%, Oliver Moore22%

    5.0 min/game · 1.65 xGF/60 · P(intact) 82%

    • COL 5v5 xGA/60 −9%
    • vs Mackenzie Blackwood .904 (57% to start)
    • Blackwood .840 on transition shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .28
  • COLL4vs CHI0.04 xG

    Parker Kelly11%, Jack Drury5.6%, Joel Kiviranta0.1%

    5.7 min/game · 3.06 xGF/60 · P(intact) 12%

    • CHI 5v5 xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Spencer Knight .901 (90% to start)
    • Knight .866 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
    • DK correlation .28
  • CHIPP1vs COL0.04 xG

    Patrick Kane80%, Tyler Bertuzzi62%, Bowen Byram96%, Roman Kantserov58%, Anton Frondell72%

    2.3 min/game · 4.90 xGF/60 · P(intact) 23%

    • COL shorthanded time −9%
    • COL PK xGA/60 −10%
    • vs Mackenzie Blackwood .904 (57% to start)
    • Blackwood .840 on transition shots
    • Together 2 of last 3
    • DK correlation .27

CGY @ SJS

  • SJSPP1vs CGY0.58 xG

    Alexander Wennberg25%, Luca Cagnoni56%, Will Smith95%, Macklin Celebrini100%, Igor Chernyshov52%

    3.7 min/game · 9.47 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY shorthanded time +23%
    • CGY PK xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  • CGYL1vs SJS0.46 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Matt Coronato40%, Matvei Gridin40%

    10.5 min/game · 2.40 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  • SJSL1vs CGY0.42 xG

    Mason Marchment47%, Will Smith95%, Macklin Celebrini100%

    12.1 min/game · 2.08 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .30
  • CGYL2vs SJS0.40 xG

    Mikael Backlund14%, Joel Farabee11%, Samuel Honzek15%

    8.3 min/game · 2.66 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  • SJSL3vs CGY0.32 xG

    Tyler Toffoli38%, Igor Chernyshov52%, Michael Misa60%

    9.0 min/game · 2.11 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  • SJSL2vs CGY0.27 xG

    Alexander Wennberg25%, Collin Graf28%, Ivar Stenberg82%

    10.5 min/game · 1.52 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .28
  • CGYL3vs SJS0.22 xG

    Martin Pospisil6.4%, Adam Klapka8.9%, Maxim Tsyplakov14%

    7.6 min/game · 1.65 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  • SJSL4vs CGY0.22 xG

    Barclay Goodrow0.1%, Kiefer Sherwood59%, Zack Ostapchuk3.2%

    7.3 min/game · 1.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +6%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (82% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27
  • CGYPP1vs SJS0.19 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Joel Farabee11%, Matt Coronato40%, Zayne Parekh68%, Matvei Gridin40%

    1.6 min/game · 6.28 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • SJS shorthanded time +12%
    • SJS PK xGA/60 +10%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
    • DK correlation .20
  • CGYL4vs SJS0.09 xG

    Ryan Strome4.0%, Yegor Sharangovich7.8%, Connor Zary10%

    10.9 min/game · 2.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 18%

    • SJS 5v5 xGA/60 +5%
    • vs Yaroslav Askarov .884 (60% to start)
    • Askarov .831 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 2
    • DK correlation .27

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.