2026 season · through Week 4
Denver Broncos Defense Profile
What the Broncos defense allows by target type, area and depth, how it rushes and covers, and its corners. Every number is adjusted for the offenses faced, shrunk toward the league, and labelled with how well that kind of split held up in our 2023–25 stability tests.
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In plain English
- A Blitzes a lot: 39.4% of dropbacks, 2nd most (A reliability)
- A Man-heavy in 2025: 45.0% man coverage (A reliability)
- B Stingy vs throws over the middle (B reliability)
- C Stingy vs short throws over the middle (C reliability)
DEN Head coach Sean Payton · Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph · Defensive play-caller Vance Joseph · All coaches
A stable and predictiveB passes our stability barC weak signal, context onlynoise noise in our tests
Pass defense by target type
Receiving fantasy points allowed per game to each group (slot and outside corners: PPR points per target, from PFR coverage of the depth chart’s nickel vs outside corners). Bar = percentile among the 32; the tick is the league median.
- noisevs TEs13.5 · 18/32
- CRB receiving8.6 · 22/32
- Cvs WRs30.6 · 4/32
- CWRs middle7.9 · 5/32
- noiseWRs outside (L/R)23.1 · 8/32
- noiseSlot CB (NB)1.7 · 8/32
- COutside CBs1.6 · 16/32
By area and depth
Fantasy points allowed per game on throws to the left, middle and right, short (under 15 air yards) and deep. Left and right are from the quarterback’s view.
- CShort40.6 · 9/32
- noiseDeep (15+ air yds)12.5 · 10/32
- noiseLeft18.8 · 8/32
- BMiddle12.0 · 2/32
- noiseRight21.6 · 17/32
- noiseLeft short15.1 · 17/32
- CMiddle short8.6 · 3/32
- CRight short16.3 · 20/32
- noiseLeft deep4.0 · 6/32
- noiseMiddle deep3.4 · 14/32
- noiseRight deep5.4 · 11/32
Scheme: pressure, boxes and what offenses run at them
From FTN charting of every play this season (pressure from PFR). Blitz = at least one extra rusher. “Faced” rates describe what offenses chose against this defense.
- ABlitz rate39.9% · 31/32
- APass rushers4.47 · 29/32
- CPressure rate27.9% · 30/32
- noiseEPA when blitzing+0.00 · 4/32
- CBox count (runs)6.65 · 19/32
- C8+ man boxes10.2% · 22/32
- BPlay action faced22.4% · 1/32
- CScreens faced7.6% · 11/32
- noiseRPOs faced4.5% · 11/32
- CMotion faced58.9% · 25/32
Coverage baseline (2025)
Man/zone and coverage shells come from the nflverse participation file, published after each season, so this is last season’s baseline. Same defensive coordinator as last season.
- Man coverage A
- 45.0%
- 32 of 32 (32 = most)
- Two-high shells A
- 36.2%
- 6 of 32 (32 = most)
- Pressure rate C
- 34.5%
- 29 of 32 (32 = most)
- Time to throw C
- 2.70 s
- 15 of 32 (32 = most)
Most-used shells
- Cover 131%
- Cover 323%
- Cover 216%
- Cover 4 (quarters)9%
- 2-Man7%
Corners
Coverage allowed this season (Pro Football Reference via nflverse). Side from the latest depth chart. All CB report cards
| Corner | Spot | Tgt | Cmp % | Yds/tgt | Rating | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Moss | Right corner | 20 | 50% | 6.8 | 91.0 | 3 |
| Patrick Surtain II | Left corner | 14 | 57% | 7.4 | 80.7 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | Nickel (slot) | 11 | 55% | 11.3 | 94.5 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | Left corner (backup) | 3 | 100% | 7.7 | 98.6 | 0 |
Last 8 games (across seasons): vs TEs 16/32 · vs WRs 3/32 · Middle 2/32 · Blitz rate 29/32 (rank 32 = most).
How this works
For each game we total what the defense allowed in a split (receiving fantasy points and EPA on targets, or a rate such as blitzes per dropback), and subtract what the same offense produced in that split in its other games. A defense’s adjustment is the average difference. We shrink it toward the league with empirical Bayes, using spreads fitted on 2023–25, and carry part of last season forward only where the split persisted year to year.
Grades come from our stability tests (odd vs even weeks, weeks 1–8 predicting 9–18, year over year, with a false-discovery-rate correction across all splits). Only A and B splits are candidates for projection adjustments. See every result.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, FTN Data via nflverse (CC-BY-SA 4.0), Pro Football Reference via nflverse
Frequently asked questions
Is the Broncos defense weak against tight ends?
Our profile shows fantasy points allowed to tight ends after adjusting for the offenses faced and shrinking toward the league. But in 2023–25 a defense’s TE points allowed in odd weeks barely matched its even weeks (reliability 0.14), so treat any “weak vs TEs” label as context, not a reason to start a tight end.
Which defensive splits actually hold up?
Scheme tendencies are very stable: blitz rate, pass rushers sent, man coverage rate and two-high shells (grade A). Of the fantasy splits, only points allowed on throws over the middle passed our bar (grade B). Most position and area splits, deep passes included, failed: they are mostly noise.
What does “likely matchup” mean?
We match a receiver’s usual alignment (left, right or slot from the depth chart) to the opposing corner listed at that spot. It is a proxy, not shadow coverage: we do not have play-by-play coverage assignments.
Why is the man/zone data from last season?
Coverage type comes from the nflverse participation file, which is published after the season. We show the prior season as a baseline and flag teams with a new defensive coordinator, whose scheme may have changed.