2026 season · Week 5 · TE
Toss-up between Barner and Ferguson in PPR. Too close to call: 8.4 vs 8.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 28.5; TB allows the 5th-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Barner. In standard scoring the call flips to Barner.
AJ BarnerSEATEvs SF8.6 PPR pts
Floor 1 · median 7.6 · ceiling 17
Too close to call: 8.4 vs 8.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 28.5; TB allows the 5th-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
Low
Jake FergusonDALTEvs TB8.4 PPR pts
Floor 2 · median 7.2 · ceiling 17
Too close to call: 8.2 vs 8.4 projected PPR points; a 28.5 implied team total vs 25.3; TB allows the 5th-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal).
LowAdd more players in Who Should I StartAJ Barner stats and usageJake Ferguson stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Barner and Ferguson in PPR. Too close to call: 8.4 vs 8.2 projected PPR points; a 25.3 implied team total vs 28.5; TB allows the 5th-most TE points (early-season DvP is a weak signal). In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Barner. In standard scoring the call flips to Barner.
AJ Barner: his 90th-percentile outcome is 17 PPR points against 17 for Jake Ferguson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jake Ferguson: a floor (10th percentile) of 2 PPR points vs 1, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Barner 8.6, Ferguson 8.4; half-PPR: Barner 7.2, Ferguson 6.9; standard: Barner 5.8, Ferguson 5.4 (points if he plays).
