2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Gibbs over Robinson in PPR. Projects 28.0 vs 23.2 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 38); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 9).
Bijan RobinsonATLRBvs BAL23.2 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 21.6 · ceiling 38
Projects 23.2 vs 28.0 PPR points; Lower ceiling (p90 38 vs 46); Shakier floor (p10 9 vs 12).
Medium
Jahmyr GibbsDETRB@ ARI28.0 PPR pts
Floor 12 · median 26.1 · ceiling 46
Projects 28.0 vs 23.2 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 38); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 9).
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartBijan Robinson stats and usageJahmyr Gibbs stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Gibbs over Robinson in PPR. Projects 28.0 vs 23.2 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 38); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 9).
Jahmyr Gibbs: his 90th-percentile outcome is 46 PPR points against 38 for Bijan Robinson, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jahmyr Gibbs: a floor (10th percentile) of 12 PPR points vs 9, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Robinson 23.2, Gibbs 28.0; half-PPR: Robinson 21.5, Gibbs 25.9; standard: Robinson 19.9, Gibbs 23.8 (points if he plays).
