2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Robinson over Williams in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 38 vs 35); Williams's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (80% → 74%); Projects 23.2 vs 20.5 PPR points.
Bijan RobinsonATLRBvs BAL23.2 PPR pts
Floor 9 · median 21.6 · ceiling 38
Higher ceiling (p90 38 vs 35); Williams's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (80% → 74%); Projects 23.2 vs 20.5 PPR points.
Medium
Javonte WilliamsDALRBvs TB20.5 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 18.8 · ceiling 35
Lower ceiling (p90 35 vs 38); Williams's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (80% → 74%); Projects 20.5 vs 23.2 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartBijan Robinson stats and usageJavonte Williams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Robinson over Williams in PPR. Higher ceiling (p90 38 vs 35); Williams's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (80% → 74%); Projects 23.2 vs 20.5 PPR points.
Bijan Robinson: his 90th-percentile outcome is 38 PPR points against 35 for Javonte Williams, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Bijan Robinson: a floor (10th percentile) of 9 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Robinson 23.2, Williams 20.5; half-PPR: Robinson 21.5, Williams 19.3; standard: Robinson 19.9, Williams 18.1 (points if he plays).
