2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Gibbs over Williams in PPR. Projects 28.0 vs 20.5 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 35); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 8).
Jahmyr GibbsDETRB@ ARI28.0 PPR pts
Floor 12 · median 26.1 · ceiling 46
Projects 28.0 vs 20.5 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 35); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 8).
High
Javonte WilliamsDALRBvs TB20.5 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 18.8 · ceiling 35
Projects 20.5 vs 28.0 PPR points; Lower ceiling (p90 35 vs 46); Shakier floor (p10 8 vs 12).
HighAdd more players in Who Should I StartJahmyr Gibbs stats and usageJavonte Williams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Gibbs over Williams in PPR. Projects 28.0 vs 20.5 PPR points; Higher ceiling (p90 46 vs 35); Safer floor (p10 12 vs 8).
Jahmyr Gibbs: his 90th-percentile outcome is 46 PPR points against 35 for Javonte Williams, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jahmyr Gibbs: a floor (10th percentile) of 12 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Gibbs 28.0, Williams 20.5; half-PPR: Gibbs 25.9, Williams 19.3; standard: Gibbs 23.8, Williams 18.1 (points if he plays).
