2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Williams over Jones in PPR. Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); a 28.5 implied team total vs 22.0; Projects 20.5 vs 19.2 PPR points.
Aaron JonesMINRB@ NO19.1 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 17.7 · ceiling 33
Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); a 22.0 implied team total vs 28.5; Projects 19.2 vs 20.5 PPR points.
Medium
Javonte WilliamsDALRBvs TB20.5 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 18.8 · ceiling 35
Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); a 28.5 implied team total vs 22.0; Projects 20.5 vs 19.2 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAaron Jones stats and usageJavonte Williams stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Williams over Jones in PPR. Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); a 28.5 implied team total vs 22.0; Projects 20.5 vs 19.2 PPR points.
Javonte Williams: his 90th-percentile outcome is 35 PPR points against 33 for Aaron Jones, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Javonte Williams: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Jones 19.2, Williams 20.5; half-PPR: Jones 17.7, Williams 19.3; standard: Jones 16.2, Williams 18.1 (points if he plays).
