2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Jones and Brown in PPR. Too close to call: 18.8 vs 18.5 projected PPR points; Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Jones. In standard scoring the call flips to Jones.
Aaron JonesMINRB@ NO19.1 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 17.7 · ceiling 33
Too close to call: 18.8 vs 18.5 projected PPR points; Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points.
Medium
Chase BrownCINRB@ MIA18.9 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 17.4 · ceiling 32
Too close to call: 18.5 vs 18.8 projected PPR points; Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartAaron Jones stats and usageChase Brown stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Jones and Brown in PPR. Too close to call: 18.8 vs 18.5 projected PPR points; Jones's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (81% → 73%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Jones. In standard scoring the call flips to Jones.
Aaron Jones: his 90th-percentile outcome is 33 PPR points against 32 for Chase Brown, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Chase Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 8, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Jones 19.2, Brown 18.9; half-PPR: Jones 17.7, Brown 17.1; standard: Jones 16.2, Brown 15.3 (points if he plays).
