2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Brown over McCaffrey in PPR. MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points; Projects 18.9 vs 18.1 PPR points; 16.9 projected carries.
Chase BrownCINRB@ MIA18.9 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 17.4 · ceiling 32
MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points; Projects 18.9 vs 18.1 PPR points; 16.9 projected carries.
Medium
Christian McCaffreySFRB@ SEA18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
SEA allows the 8th-fewest RB points; Projects 18.1 vs 18.9 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChase Brown stats and usageChristian McCaffrey stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Brown over McCaffrey in PPR. MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points; Projects 18.9 vs 18.1 PPR points; 16.9 projected carries.
Chase Brown: his 90th-percentile outcome is 32 PPR points against 31 for Christian McCaffrey, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Chase Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Brown 18.9, McCaffrey 18.1; half-PPR: Brown 17.1, McCaffrey 16.1; standard: Brown 15.3, McCaffrey 14.1 (points if he plays).
