2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Warren over McCaffrey in PPR. Warren's snap share has risen 3 straight weeks (37% → 97%); SEA allows the 8th-fewest RB points; Projects 19.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Christian McCaffreySFRB@ SEA18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
Warren's snap share has risen 3 straight weeks (37% → 97%); SEA allows the 8th-fewest RB points; Projects 18.1 vs 19.1 PPR points.
Medium
Jaylen WarrenPITRBvs IND19.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 17.4 · ceiling 33
Warren's snap share has risen 3 straight weeks (37% → 97%); SEA allows the 8th-fewest RB points; Projects 19.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChristian McCaffrey stats and usageJaylen Warren stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Warren over McCaffrey in PPR. Warren's snap share has risen 3 straight weeks (37% → 97%); SEA allows the 8th-fewest RB points; Projects 19.1 vs 18.1 PPR points.
Jaylen Warren: his 90th-percentile outcome is 33 PPR points against 31 for Christian McCaffrey, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Jaylen Warren: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: McCaffrey 18.1, Warren 19.1; half-PPR: McCaffrey 16.1, Warren 17.7; standard: McCaffrey 14.1, Warren 16.4 (points if he plays).
