2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start McCaffrey over Taylor in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Taylor would project ahead (0.6 points); Taylor's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (94% → 71%); PIT allows the 7th-fewest RB points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Taylor.
Christian McCaffreySFRB@ SEA18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
Scoring decides it: in standard Taylor would project ahead (0.6 points); Taylor's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (94% → 71%); PIT allows the 7th-fewest RB points.
Medium
Jonathan TaylorINDRB@ PIT17.0 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 15.7 · ceiling 29
Scoring decides it: in standard Taylor would project ahead (0.6 points); Taylor's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (94% → 71%); PIT allows the 7th-fewest RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChristian McCaffrey stats and usageJonathan Taylor stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start McCaffrey over Taylor in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Taylor would project ahead (0.6 points); Taylor's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (94% → 71%); PIT allows the 7th-fewest RB points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Taylor.
Christian McCaffrey: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 29 for Jonathan Taylor, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Christian McCaffrey: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 7, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: McCaffrey 18.1, Taylor 17.0; half-PPR: McCaffrey 16.1, Taylor 15.9; standard: McCaffrey 14.1, Taylor 14.7 (points if he plays).
