2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between McCaffrey and Cook in PPR. Too close to call: 17.7 vs 17.6 projected PPR points; Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); a 22.3 implied team total vs 26.0. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Cook. In standard scoring the call flips to Cook.
Christian McCaffreySFRB@ SEA18.1 PPR pts
Floor 7 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
Too close to call: 17.7 vs 17.6 projected PPR points; Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); a 22.3 implied team total vs 26.0.
Medium
James CookBUFRB@ LAR17.9 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
Too close to call: 17.6 vs 17.7 projected PPR points; Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); a 26.0 implied team total vs 22.3.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChristian McCaffrey stats and usageJames Cook stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between McCaffrey and Cook in PPR. Too close to call: 17.7 vs 17.6 projected PPR points; Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); a 22.3 implied team total vs 26.0. In half-PPR scoring the call flips to Cook. In standard scoring the call flips to Cook.
Christian McCaffrey: his 90th-percentile outcome is 31 PPR points against 31 for James Cook, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Christian McCaffrey: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: McCaffrey 18.1, Cook 17.9; half-PPR: McCaffrey 16.1, Cook 17.1; standard: McCaffrey 14.1, Cook 16.3 (points if he plays).
