2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Start Brown over Cook in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Cook would project ahead (1.0 points); Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Cook.
Chase BrownCINRB@ MIA18.9 PPR pts
Floor 8 · median 17.4 · ceiling 32
Scoring decides it: in standard Cook would project ahead (1.0 points); Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points.
Medium
James CookBUFRB@ LAR17.9 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 16.5 · ceiling 31
Scoring decides it: in standard Cook would project ahead (1.0 points); Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); LAR allows the 2nd-fewest RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartChase Brown stats and usageJames Cook stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Start Brown over Cook in PPR. Scoring decides it: in standard Cook would project ahead (1.0 points); Cook's snap share has fallen 2 straight weeks (74% → 59%); MIA allows the 3rd-most RB points. In half-PPR scoring it is a toss-up. In standard scoring the call flips to Cook.
Chase Brown: his 90th-percentile outcome is 32 PPR points against 31 for James Cook, from 2,000 simulated games each.
Chase Brown: a floor (10th percentile) of 8 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Brown 18.9, Cook 17.9; half-PPR: Brown 17.1, Cook 17.1; standard: Brown 15.3, Cook 16.3 (points if he plays).
