2026 season · Week 5 · RB

Derrick Henry vs Jonathan Taylor: Who Should I Start in Week 5?

Start Taylor over Henry in PPR. Projects 17.0 vs 15.9 PPR points; 18.9 projected carries.

Scoring

Start Taylor over Henry in PPR

FlexRB1 · #12

Derrick HenryBALRB@ ATL

15.9 PPR pts

628

Floor 6 · median 14.5 · ceiling 28

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 20.3 (dog by 3)
Matchup: Neutral · 14th
Snap share: 62%▲4

Projects 15.9 vs 17.0 PPR points.

Medium

StartRB1 · #10

Jonathan TaylorINDRB@ PIT

17.0 PPR pts

729

Floor 7 · median 15.7 · ceiling 29

Plays: 98%
Implied total: 21.0 (dog by 2.5)
Matchup: Tough · 7th
Snap share: 71%▼18

Projects 17.0 vs 15.9 PPR points; 18.9 projected carries.

Medium

Add more players in Who Should I Start Derrick Henry stats and usage Jonathan Taylor stats and usage All Week 5 projections

How this works

Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.

Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology

Frequently asked questions

Should I start Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor in Week 5?

Start Taylor over Henry in PPR. Projects 17.0 vs 15.9 PPR points; 18.9 projected carries.

Who has the higher ceiling, Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor?

Jonathan Taylor: his 90th-percentile outcome is 29 PPR points against 28 for Derrick Henry, from 2,000 simulated games each.

Who is the safer start, Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor?

Jonathan Taylor: a floor (10th percentile) of 7 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.

What are Derrick Henry's and Jonathan Taylor's Week 5 projections?

PPR: Henry 15.9, Taylor 17.0; half-PPR: Henry 15.2, Taylor 15.9; standard: Henry 14.4, Taylor 14.7 (points if he plays).

Side-by-side comparison