2026 season · Week 5 · RB
Toss-up between Swift and Henry in PPR. Too close to call: 15.8 vs 15.6 projected PPR points; a 24.3 implied team total vs 20.3; GB allows the 8th-most RB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Henry.
D'Andre SwiftCHIRB@ GB16.1 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 14.5 · ceiling 28
Too close to call: 15.8 vs 15.6 projected PPR points; a 24.3 implied team total vs 20.3; GB allows the 8th-most RB points.
Medium
Derrick HenryBALRB@ ATL15.9 PPR pts
Floor 6 · median 14.5 · ceiling 28
Too close to call: 15.6 vs 15.8 projected PPR points; a 20.3 implied team total vs 24.3; GB allows the 8th-most RB points.
MediumAdd more players in Who Should I StartD'Andre Swift stats and usageDerrick Henry stats and usageAll Week 5 projections
Both players come from the same weekly projection: a mean and an 80% range from 2,000 simulated games, scored in your format, and the chance he plays. Start goes to the higher expected points (chance to play × projection); within 10% is a Flex-level close call. The tier ranks each player against everyone at his position this week. Reasons are templates filled with the model's numbers.
Updated Tue, Oct 6, 2:39 PM ETFull methodology
Toss-up between Swift and Henry in PPR. Too close to call: 15.8 vs 15.6 projected PPR points; a 24.3 implied team total vs 20.3; GB allows the 8th-most RB points. In standard scoring the call flips to Henry.
D'Andre Swift: his 90th-percentile outcome is 28 PPR points against 28 for Derrick Henry, from 2,000 simulated games each.
D'Andre Swift: a floor (10th percentile) of 6 PPR points vs 6, and a 98% chance to play vs 98%.
PPR: Swift 16.1, Henry 15.9; half-PPR: Swift 15.2, Henry 15.2; standard: Swift 14.2, Henry 14.4 (points if he plays).
